Probability in Society Chapter 9 of Grade 9 Math
► Theoretical Probability: the mathematical outcomes from a concrete event (represented by a fraction or percentage) ► Known whole: Ex. Rolling dice (only 6 sides, doesn’t change), drawing cards (52 cards, doesn’t change)
Experimental Probability ►Experimental Probability: the probability of an event calculated from experimental results (never exact or for sure, changes over time) Ex. Shooting a basketball, colour of cars in lot
Subjective Influences on Probability ►Subjective Judgement: the decisions you make around possible outcomes Ex. Your gut feelings: I feel like the next roll of the die will show a 4, I always call heads, my lucky number is 16.
Indicate whether each decision is based on theoretical probability or experimental probability.
► The last two times Matt won a prize at a coffee shop, he ordered a medium hot chocolate. Matt never won when he ordered a large hot chocolate, so today he orders a medium hot chocolate
► Instead of buying her own lottery ticket, Jen pools her money with the people at work to buy more tickets and increase her chances of winning.
► Selena boards the last car of a train because, in the past, the last car always had available seats.
► Tyler will not travel by airplane even though experts say it is safer to fly than drive.
What assumptions is each person making? ► Based on past math quizzes, Joan says she has a 90% chance of getting a perfect score on her next math quiz. ► Six times out of ten, Matt gets stuck in traffic when he leaves work. So, he calculates that his chances for getting stuck in traffic today after work are 60%
Assignment ► Come up with 5 events showing either theoretical probability or experimental probability ► For each event explain if it is theoretical or experimental and what subjective judgments are present
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