PRMS MMS A Model and Modeling Framework for Use

PRMS/MMS: A Model and Modeling Framework for Use in Water- and Environmental. Resources Management George Leavesley USGS, Denver, Colorado USA

Overview n n n PRMS MMS Focus Areas in Model Development Model Processes n Toolbox n n Summary

PRMS

PRMS Features Modular Design n Deterministic n Distributed Parameter n Daily and Storm Mode n User Modifiable n

Distributed Parameter Approach Hydrologic Response Units - HRUs HRU Delineation Based on: - Slope - Aspect - Elevation - Vegetation - Soil - Precip Distribution

HRU DELINEATION AND CHARACTERIZATION Polygon Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) Grid Cell Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs)

PRMS -- HRU Delineation Topographic Pixelated

CASCADING FLOW PLANES 1 2 1 3 7 8 Overland Flow Path 10 9 1 3 Channel Segment 3 Channel Junction 2 4 6 Overland Flow Plane 2 4 5 12 width Grass/Agriculture Bare Ground/Rock 11 Trees length Shrubs

The Modular Modeling System (MMS) An integrated system of computer software developed to: n n n Provide a common framework for model development and operational applications Facilitate the integration of multi-disciplinary modeling approaches for use in addressing complex, multiobjective, resource-management problems Provide a toolbox-approach to the development of resource-management, decision-support systems

Model Builder MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) MMS Interface Object User Interface

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN n n n PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

PRMS

WEBMOD PRMS National Weather Service - Hydro 17 TOPMODEL

Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Next step: Use tracers to constrain the hydrologic Paths Simulated Flowsolutions and Residence Times

Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN n n n PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone Models PRMS to SFR Unsaturated Zone Model: PRMS to MODFLOW PRMS to UNSAT to MODFLOW to SFR Streamflow

Sagehen Creek Model 2 x vertical exaggeration Springs Stream gage

Ground-Water Discharge & Saturation Excess

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN n n n PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Aquatic Habitat Models Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model

Aquatic Habitat Models Results ft 3/s ft 2

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN n n n PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Recreation Watershed and River Systems Management Program Municipal & Industrial Irrigation Hydropower Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues. Riparian Habitat Endangered Species

Currently Active Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima Under Development San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia WARSMP Basins Future Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon

Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of Management Issues Climate Data Source DMI Any Database DMI Any Resource Management Model DMI MMI Object User Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models

Database-Centered Decision Support System Hydromet Real-time climate data feed DMI Hydrologic Database DMI USBR River. Ware DMI Reservoir and River System Operations Model DMI USGS Object User Interface for data visualization and modeling USGS Modular Modeling System Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)

OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)

Environmental Database-Centered Decision Support System (DSS) Resource Management Alternatives DMI Object User Interface DMI Interface for data visualization and modeling DMI SIMPPLLE Vegetation Dynamics Models (USFS) Resource Database DMI Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models

Focus Area Model Processes n n n Precipitation Distribution Snow accumulation and melt proceses Parameter estimation in ungauged basins

Precipitation Interpolation Methods n n n n Inverse distance weighting Kriging Multiple linear regression Climatological multiple linear regression Locally weighted polynomial k nearest neighbor …

PRMS Snowpack Energy Balance Components

Evaluating MM 5 Output Using PRMS

Nested Domains for MM 5

HRU Configurations Polygon Grid

HRU Configurations

Effects of HRU Configuration and Data Source (Yampa River @Steamboat Springs) (Climate Station Data) HRU Type/ Data Size Grid 20 5 1. 7 Polygon 20 5 1. 7

Satellite vs Modeled Snow Covered Area east

Animas Basin Snowcovered Area Year 2000 Simulated Measured (MODIS Satellite) Error Range <= 0. 1

NOHRSC Snow Modeling Framework 2 Hourly Input Gridded Data (1 km) Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Solar Radiation Atmos. Radiation Precipitation Type Data Assimilation Snow Energy and Mass Balance Model Blowing Snow Model Static Gridded Data (1 km) Soils Properties Land Use/Cover Forest Properties 1 Snow Observations Radiative Transfer Model State Variables for Multiple Vertical Snow & Soil Layers 1 Snow Water Equivalent Snow Depth Snow Temperature Liquid Water Content Snow Sublimation Snow Melt Snow Cover 3 NSA Product Generation Interactive Maps Digital Data Discussions

NOHRSC Snow Model Physics

National Snow Analyses (NSA) Snow Information Products High-resolution Daily and Hourly Gridded Snow Data Sets of Fused Model and Observations Data Products Interactive Maps Time Series Plots Text Discussions Local Information (1 km 2) • Snow Water Equivalent • Snow Depth • Snow Density • Snow Sfc. Temperature • Snow Avg. Temperature • Snow Melt • Sublimation • Snow Wetness Continental U. S. Information • Archived at NCDC, NSIDC, and NDFD (soon)

Animas River @ Durango 1805 km 2

Animas River Basin, CO

Predicted and Measured Streamflow Animas Basin, CO 1990 - 2005 PREDICTED MEASURED

Animas Basin SWE - 2004 April 1 May 1 SNODAS PRMS (in. )

Animas Basin SWE - 2005 April 1 May 1 SNODAS PRMS (in. )

SWE Difference on Selected HRUs SWE_diff = SNODAS - PRMS

Q (cfs) melt (in) swe (in) Animas PRMS OBS PRMS SNODAS

a priori Parameter Estimation n IAHS Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUBs) n n predict the fluxes of water and associated constituents from ungauged basins, along with estimates of the uncertainty of predictions Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) n develop techniques for the a priori estimation of the parameters used in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models and in hydrologic models

Gauged Subbasins in the Upper Gunnison Basin, CO East River Taylor River Tomichi Creek Lake Fork Cochetopa Creek

Forecasting at Internal Nodes Hunter Creek nr Aspen, Colorado Gage Hunter Trans-mountain Diversion Points Midway No Name HRUs

GIS WEASEL Delineation: • Only requires elevation Grid as input • Interactively delineate • Area of Interest • Many kinds of features • Streams • Elevation bands • Landuse • Contributing areas • Topographic index • ……

DIGITAL DATABASES Vegetation Type (USFS) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS) STATSGO Soils (USDA) Satellite SW Radiation (U Md) Monthly PET

AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

MOPEX US Basin Locations Workshop II: 20 basins in France Workshop ? 438 basins

Participants MOPEX Workshop I n n n n NWS (SWB & SAC) Meteo France (ISBA) Russian Academy of Science (SWAP) UC Berkeley / Princeton (VIC) Cemagref, France (GR 4 J) NCEP (NOAH) USGS (PRMS) n n n Yamanashi University (BTOPMC) Swedish Meteor. and Hydro. Institute, Sweden (HBV) University of Alberta, Canada (SAC) §University of Newcastle, Australia §University of Arizona §Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK §Oregon State University §Wageningen University, The Netherlands §National Institute of Hydrology, Canada §University of New Hampshire

MOPEX Workshop I Results Average daily Nash-Sutcliffe CE for all 12 basins Uncalibrated Calibrated PRMS NWS VIC PRMS VIC

Ensemble Modeling 10 Model Ensemble

Topography Dill Basin, Germany 750 km 2 Sub-basins Land Use

Bias & Efficiency of Model Simulations Original Precip Data Set

Focus Area Toolbox

TOOLBOX TOOL PITCH n Parameterizer (GIS Weasel)

TOOLBOX TOOL PITCH n Parameterizer (GIS Weasel) n Optimizer (Luca)

TOOLBOX TOOL PITCH n Parameterizer (GIS Weasel) n Optimizer (Luca) n Analyzer Statistical and graphical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools

OMS

Integrated Framework Development Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) - ARS - USGS - NRCS - (NWS) Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte, … OMS Platform http: //oms. ars. usda. gov Database PRMS RZWQM Model. Builder Branding Model. Core Other… C++ Testing XML Java Compiler -Friedrich Schiller University, Germany

Working with the NRCS and NWS to develop a Modular Modeling System forecasting toolbox using MMS/OMS and PRMS

Integrated Adaptive-Modeling and Decision-Support System Summary • Facilitates multi-disciplinary integration of models and tools to address the issues of water and environmental-resource management. • Allows rapid evaluation of the effects of decision and management scenarios. • Allows incorporation of continuing advances in physical, social, and economic sciences. • Provides an effective means for sharing scientific understanding with stakeholders and decision makers. • Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs.

MORE INFORMATION n http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/mms n http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/weasel n http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/warsmp n http: //oms. ars. usda. gov