PRISM ie marine forecasting system integrated modelling

PRISM. ie marine forecasting system – integrated modelling & web mapping Brendan Dollard Environmental Technologist Clean. Tech Enterprise Ireland

Objectives of the PRISM project • Development of automated predictive models of the Irish Sea and selected inshore regions • Website will be developed to display the output from the models developed within PRISM. • Website will be developed to allow end users to make “what if” calculations on environmental issues. • Website will be developed to promote the tourism and leisure industries by providing forecasts of wind, sailing and surfing conditions.

Overview of the Prism. ie System n n n Provides easy to interpret map access to output from Irish Sea computer wave and hydrodynamic forecast models. Dynamically reads output from models that run on a daily basis and prepares these for web viewing. Allows model data animation - scroll through six hourly forecast. Graphing of detailed data at key locations. Provides a technology approach that is readily extendible to other models and applications.

Models in PRISM Hydrodynamic models Irish Sea model – POLCOMS NE Atlantic model – ECOMSED Dublin Bay model – SWAN, DIVAST Wave model PRO-WAM • Forecast outputs: 48 hrs time period covered

Agreement between the measured (solid black curve) and simulated (dashed blue curve) Hs (m) at buoy M 5.

Automation chart flow Run Tide + Met 72 hrs Output

Automation - overview • Machine specification - 32 bit IBM XSERIES_255 server - operational system: LINUX - 8 processors Intel(R) Xeon(TM) MP CPU 3. 00 GHz • Timing - ~ 70 minutes for POLCOMS model (1 processor) - ~ 125 minutes for ECOMSED models (1 processor) - ~ 95 minutes for SWAN models run in parallel (6 processors) - ~ 25 minutes for DIVAST model (1 processor) - < 2 minutes for pre-processing - ~ 5 minutes for post-processing and uploading to ftp site

Prism. ie Process Diagram

Prism. ie System Elements n Core elements are computational models, data pump application, map viewer, and associated website. Forecast data Response Data Pump Viewer Request Forecast data Map data

Data Pump Process Test for new files Sleep Deleting Download Unpacking n n n Parsing Loading to database Outlines the steps in polling, download, parsing, loading, optimising of model data. Importantly this dynamically creates raster layers of the model results and optimises these for web display. Dynamic creation of wind vectors also is facilitated.

Data Pump Application n Configurable and traceable process.

Data Pump Application n Can run as a background process on same server, or other server.

Application architecture

ERIS – Gas cloud dispersal T+36 hrs ERIS – Oil spill dispersal T+36 hrs

Outcome n n A web based system useful in its own right. Capable of extension to other sea areas – computational models are already largely in place. System approach allows ready extension to other computational models (river, air, noise, transport). Delivered under a research project and now an operational system.

Benefits n A better understanding of the environment through the use of computer models that will result in practical tools suitable for use in planning and management decisions. n The results and tools that are being developed within the project have been placed on web pages that the public will be able to access. One aspect of the work will concern safety at sea and the education of the public to the dangers that are inherent in marine leisure activities.

The project was highly successful in its goals of developing ocean modelling expertise in both Ireland Wales, in producing operational forecasts that can be viewed by the public via dedicated web pages, and in creating a networking environment that brought together a community of researchers and end users.

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Brendan Dollard – 01 727 2279 Email; brendan. dollard@enterprise-ireland. com