Скачать презентацию Price determination Ø is the broad forces of Скачать презентацию Price determination Ø is the broad forces of

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  • Количество слайдов: 27

Price determination Ø is the broad forces of supply and demand establishing a market Price determination Ø is the broad forces of supply and demand establishing a market clearing price for a commodity.

Price Discovery Ø is the process by which buyers and sellers arrive a a Price Discovery Ø is the process by which buyers and sellers arrive a a specific price for a given lot of produce at a given location for a specific time period. Ø Reading Assignment » Understanding Livestock Pricing Issues

Price Discovery Ø A human process, subject to relative bargaining power of the buyer Price Discovery Ø A human process, subject to relative bargaining power of the buyer and seller. Ø Two stage process » Evaluate S&D and Pe » Estimate the price for the specific trade.

Price Determination and Price Discovery S P Pe D Qe Q Price Determination and Price Discovery S P Pe D Qe Q

Price Discovery Concerns Under Alternative Price Determination Conditions Demand Supply Strong Weak Large Potential Price Discovery Concerns Under Alternative Price Determination Conditions Demand Supply Strong Weak Large Potential Probable Small Unlikely Potential

Price discovery systems Ø Individual negotiations » Also called private treaty sales » Fed Price discovery systems Ø Individual negotiations » Also called private treaty sales » Fed cattle, hogs, grain Ø Organized central markets » Auctions, terminal, electronic Ø Formula pricing » Eggs, wholesale meat, feeder pigs, hogs and cattle

Price discovery systems Ø Bargained prices » Fruits, vegetables, milk Ø Administered pricing » Price discovery systems Ø Bargained prices » Fruits, vegetables, milk Ø Administered pricing » Government programs

Packer Procurement Method, 1999 Hogs Cattle Cash market 27% 65% Formula 32 20 Futures-based Packer Procurement Method, 1999 Hogs Cattle Cash market 27% 65% Formula 32 20 Futures-based 8 4 Risk share 14 3 Packer owned 18 5 Other 1 3

Percent of U. S. Hogs Sold Through Various Pricing Arrangements, January 1999 -2002* 1999 Percent of U. S. Hogs Sold Through Various Pricing Arrangements, January 1999 -2002* 1999 2000 2001 2002 Hog or meat market formula 44. 2 47. 2 54. 0 44. 5 Other market formula 13. 2 20. 8 21. 9 11. 8 Other purchase arrangement 4. 6 6. 6 8. 6 Packer-sold 2. 1 Packer-owned 16. 4 *2002 data based on USDA Mandatory Reports, 1999 -2001 Negotiated – spot 35. 8 25. 7 17. 3 16. 7 based on industry survey. University of Missouri and National Pork Board*

Procurement Method, MPR Ø IA/MN Daily Prior Day PURCHASE SWINE » Negotiated, Packer Owned, Procurement Method, MPR Ø IA/MN Daily Prior Day PURCHASE SWINE » Negotiated, Packer Owned, Packer Sold » Market Formulas (Swine or Pork, Other) » Other Purchase Agreement Ø Ø National Daily Prior Day SLAUGHTERED SWINE National Weekly Direct Slaughter » » Ø Cattle - Formulated and Forward Contract - Domestic Formulated and Forward Contract - Import Packer Owned Cattle Negotiated Purchases http: //www. ams. usda. gov/lsg/mncs/index. htm#Mandatory

Performance issues Ø “Least cost” method of price discovery Ø Effect of the mechanism Performance issues Ø “Least cost” method of price discovery Ø Effect of the mechanism on price behavior Ø Marketing v. pricing efficiency

Centralized pricing Ø All buyers and sellers in one place at one time. » Centralized pricing Ø All buyers and sellers in one place at one time. » Full and immediate information » Competitive bidding » Equalizes market power » Transaction cost » Physical movement of product

Decentralized Pricing Ø One-to-one negotiations » Reduced transportation cost » Reduced transaction cost » Decentralized Pricing Ø One-to-one negotiations » Reduced transportation cost » Reduced transaction cost » Depends on skills and information » Higher search cost

Hybrid markets Ø Electronic markets » Centralized pricing » Decentralized product movement Ø Examples Hybrid markets Ø Electronic markets » Centralized pricing » Decentralized product movement Ø Examples » Satellite auctions » Electronic auctions » Tel-o-auction » E-commerce

Electronic markets Ø Marketing agency » Lends credibility » Settle disputes » Aids collection Electronic markets Ø Marketing agency » Lends credibility » Settle disputes » Aids collection and payment Ø Examples » http: //www. superiorauction. com/ » http: //www. cattlesale. com/ » http: //www. e-markets. com/

Information and markets Ø Price reporting » Role of the government » Collection and Information and markets Ø Price reporting » Role of the government » Collection and dissemination and timely reporting of prices that were discovered. » Other private treaty buyers and sellers incorporate new information into their negotiation. » Facilitates formula pricing

Price reporting Iowa Dept of Ag and Land Stewardship Ø Regional cash grain prices Price reporting Iowa Dept of Ag and Land Stewardship Ø Regional cash grain prices Ø Auction market prices

Price reporting USDA Agricultural Marketing Service http: //www. ams. usda. gov/lsg/mncs/index. htm Terminal of Price reporting USDA Agricultural Marketing Service http: //www. ams. usda. gov/lsg/mncs/index. htm Terminal of large auctions Ø Farmer to packer trade » IA-S. MN Hogs » Western Cornbelt pork carcass » Iowa Direct Trade Cattle Ø Meat trade » Boxed beef » Carlot pork prices

Mandatory Price Reporting Ø Passed Congress October 1999 Ø Scheduled to start January 30, Mandatory Price Reporting Ø Passed Congress October 1999 Ø Scheduled to start January 30, 2001 » Delayed due technical difficulties Ø Started April 2, 2001 » Little or no beta test » Technical difficulties » One report – no backup plan Ø Scheduled to end Oct 1, 2004? ?

“ 3/60” Guideline Ø Commonly used standard to protect confidentiality of reporting firms Ø “ 3/60” Guideline Ø Commonly used standard to protect confidentiality of reporting firms Ø At least 3 reporting firms and no one firm with 60% or more of volume Ø OMB imposed guideline » Implemented on a line-by-line, report-by-report basis » Nearly one-third of scheduled daily cattle and swine reports were withheld from publication between April 2 and June 14, 2001

“ 3/70/20” Guideline Ø Began August 20, 2001 Ø Implement on for most recent “ 3/70/20” Guideline Ø Began August 20, 2001 Ø Implement on for most recent 60 -day period Ø At least three entities must provide data at least 50 percent of the time Ø No one entity may provide more than 70 percent of the data Ø No one entity may provide data more than 20 percent of the time, as the only entity

91 reports Ø Time, region, commodity, and type of purchase Ø Hogs, 15 reports 91 reports Ø Time, region, commodity, and type of purchase Ø Hogs, 15 reports Ø Cattle, 43 reports Ø Lamb, 8 reports Ø Boxed–Beef and Lamb, 25 reports Ø NOT wholesale pork

Summary Ø Mountains of new reports and data Ø Not as timely Ø More Summary Ø Mountains of new reports and data Ø Not as timely Ø More transparent after the fact

Homework assignment Due next class Ø One page Ø Find prices in three related Homework assignment Due next class Ø One page Ø Find prices in three related markets. Ø Define the 4 dimensions of each market. Ø Discuss the “marketing margins” between each market.

Where to find? Ø Newspaper, radio, DTN Ø Internet » Look for USDA-AMS » Where to find? Ø Newspaper, radio, DTN Ø Internet » Look for USDA-AMS » http: //www. ams. usda. gov/ » Determine a commodity » Choose a location

Market Regulation Ø Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration » GIPSA » Division of Market Regulation Ø Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration » GIPSA » Division of USDA » Regulation of markets and trade

So What? ? ? Ø Why is price reporting important? Ø Why do taxpayers So What? ? ? Ø Why is price reporting important? Ø Why do taxpayers fund price reporting and market regulators?