Presentation by Dr Kevin Lasher Models of

Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher

Models of Presidential Behavior

Three Models of Presidential Behavior 1) Sorensen’s theory of limitations x 2) Barber’s theory of presidential character 3) Skowronek’s theory of political time

Theodore Sorensen • Advisor and speechwriter for JFK • Wrote several books on Kennedy presidency • Advisor to later Democratic presidential nominees • Taught at Princeton and Harvard • Viewed presidency from both “inside” and “outside”

Sorensen’s limitations • Presidents do not feel particular powerful • They are limited or constrained by various factors • More successful presidents overcome these limitations, less successful presidents do not

Sorensen’s limitations • • • Limitations of permissibility Limitations of previous commitments Limitations of time Limitations of information Limitations of resources Institutional limitations

Limitations of Permissibility • Certain policies are unacceptable for advanced democratic capitalist system • Some degree of “morality” in international behavior • Some notion of “good society” at home • Use nuclear weapons, dominate other countries, ignore critical social problems, steal elections • Torture, domestic spying, drones

Limitations of Previous Commitments • Presidents inherit the policies and programs of their predecessors (not just recent ones) • Presidents do not start with “clean slate” • American troops in Europe, Japan, South Korea • Obama inherited Iraq and Afghanistan from Bush • Can be constrained by their own earlier statements or actions

Limitations of Time • Presidents are human not 24 -hour machines • Non-essential duties • Presidents must choose 3 -4 issues to focus on in first term • Concept of political timing • Crises must be dealt with and can change plans • Re-election and lame-duck pressures

Limitations of Information • Bureaucracy to provide president with advice on host of issues • CEA, OMB, GAO, White House staff, academics, think tanks; CIA, DIA, NSC, many others • Information overload

Limitations of Information • Presidents always have “imperfect” information • Presidents must take risks with inadequate information (greater in foreign policy) • Risks can lead to success or failure • Desire for more information leads to “paralysis”

Limitations of Resources • Federal budget is not unlimited (more of a problem for Democrats) • Military manpower, political capital, presidential appeals to Congress, televised addresses

Institutional Limitations

Institutional Limitations • • • Three branches with checks and balances Federal system designed to move slowly Often have “divided government” Federalism in which states have powers Presidents consider public opinion and reelection

Three Models of Presidential Behavior 1) Sorenson’s theory of limitations 2) Barber’s theory of presidential character x 3) Skowronek’s theory of political time

James David Barber • Political Scientist at Duke University (presidency) • The Presidential Character • Predicted “downfall” of President Nixon in 1972; launched his model

James David Barber • Presidential personality is an important determinant of their actions • Presidential personality is patterned – character, style and world view form a coherent psychological cluster • Presidential personality interacts with the climate of expectations of the period in which they serve • Personality is formed in early life and early political experiences • Four-part personality typology

James David Barber • We want presidents with more “good traits” than “bad traits” • “We are talking about tendencies, broad directions; no individual man exactly fits a category. ” • Strong personality tendencies, but nothing is inevitable • Lots of problems with this model, but still “appealing”

Active or Passive ACTIVE • Energetic, problem-solving, thrive on challenge of office • Center of White House • Democratic Party bias? PASSIVE • Few policy initiatives, care-taker administration • Ceremonial duties • Aloof managerial style

Positive or Negative POSITIVE • Enjoy being President • Accept criticism, sense of humor, interact with press • Flexible, learn from mistakes, demonstrate growth NEGATIVE • Presidency as burden, office weighs heavily on them • Thin-skinned, hate press • Inflexible, cannot change course

Barber’s Typology ACTIVE POSITIVE NEGATIV E FDR Truman JFK Carter Ford Wilson Hoover LBJ Nixon [Bush 43] Bush 41 Clinton PASSIVE Taft Harding Reagan Coolidge Eisenhower

Barber’s Typology: Passive-Negative • Presidents who accomplish very little and seem to have very little enjoyment in their role • Why do these men become President? – it is their duty to serve • “Silent Cal” Coolidge who believed in limited government • Coolidge suffered from depression after the death of his teen-age son prior to the election of 1924 • Coolidge served during the “Roaring Twenties” when the government was on auto-pilot

Barber’s Typology: Passive-Negative • Eisenhower pressured into running in 1952, disliked campaigning and speech-making • Eisenhower delegated a great deal of authority • High approval ratings throughout presidency • Eisenhower failed to use his popularity and high standing to push a domestic agenda, especially on civil rights • Eisenhower had a heart attack in 1955 and a minor stroke in 1957 • Pursued a cautious foreign policy with the Soviet Union • “Hidden-hand Presidency” where Eisenhower was more in charge behind the scenes than many believed at the time

Barber’s Typology: Passive-Positive • “Lazy” presidents with modest political agendas (or less) • They are well-liked, they avoid conflict, they want to be “loved” by everyone • They seem to enjoy their time as president, possess a superficial optimism • Harding spent time playing cards, golf and at theater • Spent a good deal of time with his friends and mistress • Harding’s best trait is that he “looked like what a President should look like”; felt overwhelmed • Friends in Cabinet involved in scandals • Rated as one of our worst presidents

Barber’s Typology: Passive-Positive • Reagan had a strong policy agenda (cut taxes, increase defense spending, shrink government) • Reagan was incredibly hands-off in management style • Short days with lots of vacations • Enjoyed playing the role of president, brought sunny optimism to the country • Had success when surrounded by strong advisors, much less success in second term with new team • Barber does not seem to be able to explain the fact that the Reagan presidency is generally seen as rather successful • Helped end Cold War with USSR

Barber’s Typology ACTIVE POSITIVE NEGATIV E FDR Truman JFK Carter Ford Wilson Hoover LBJ Nixon [Bush 43] Bush 41 Clinton PASSIVE Taft Harding Reagan Coolidge Eisenhower

Barber’s Typology: Active-Positive • High self-esteem, high confidence in their ability to do the job • Adept at the give and take of politics, they thrive on the challenges of the office • Have assertive policy agendas and are hands-on managers • Flexible, able to accept mistakes and move in a different direction • Display growth during presidency • Not angels – highly capable and generally effective • Success is not guaranteed

Barber’s Typology: Active-Positive • • FDR: highly manipulative of subordinates Truman: had a temper and could be impulsive JFK: serial adulterer Carter: arrogant and unable to cooperate with congressional Democrats • Bush 41: lacked the “vision thing” • Clinton: intelligent but undisciplined, sexual affair led to impeachment

Barber’s Typology: Active-Negative • Energetic with assertive agendas • Low self-esteem drives a need for power and to dominate others • Early achievements bring little sense of satisfaction • Constantly questioning their authentic abilities • Personality defects lead to rigidification – they get stuck on a particular policy which leads to their downfall • Can do great harm to the country • Partial successes who crash and burn in failure

Barber’s Typology: Active-Negative • Wilson and his stubbornness on League of Nations Treaty • Hoover and his unwillingness to get the national government to intervene in Great Depression • Johnson and the disaster of the Vietnam War • Nixon and the Watergate scandal which led to his resignation • Bush 43 and Iraq (? ? ? )

Three Models of Presidential Behavior 1) Sorenson’s theory of limitations 2) Barber’s theory of presidential character 3) Skowronek’s theory of political time x

Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time n n Political Scientist at Yale University Politics Presidents Make and Presidential Leadership in Political Time

Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time n n n Does not differentiate between traditional and modern presidencies Theory applies to 200 years of presidential administrations Moves away from character or individual actions and focuses on the possibilities and constraints of the particular political era

Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time n n Presidents act within the context of the “regime cycle” in which they find themselves Presidents act in particular ways based on the historical circumstances in which they enter the White House

Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time n n n At various points in history certain presidents come to power by creating a new party coalition and political agenda into a new political regime These political regimes endure through subsequent presidencies but eventually end Presidents face different challenges and need different kinds of leadership styles depending on where they fall within the cycle of a particular regime

Political Regimes n n n 1800 -1828: Jefferson regime (Democratic-Republican) 1828 -1860: Jackson regime (Democrats) 1860/1896 -1932: Lincoln/Republican regime 1932 -1980: FDR regime (New Deal Democrats) 1980 -present: Reagan regime (? ? ? ) (conservative)

Regime Construction Regime Articulation Regime Disjunction

Regime Construction n n Reconstructive presidents establish new political regimes They seize the moment to form new political coalitions, apply new strategies to achieve their goals, and move the political agenda on a new course Skowronek does not talk directly about party realignments, but that is clearly a part of his theory Reconstructive presidents build a new political regime that continues beyond their presidencies

Regime Construction n n Reconstructive presidents are “builders” Skowronek classifies Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR and probably Reagan as such presidents Maximum flexibility to take on new issues and establish new methods These are great or near-great presidents

Regime Articulation n n Articulator presidents are partisans of the new political regime, but their job is to fine-tune and continue the policies established by their predecessors Articulators face the task of keeping the regime’s political coalition together while adapting to new policy challenges that threaten to fracture the coalition

Regime Articulation n If reconstructive presidents are “builders, ” then articulators are “maintainers” Take the new system that they have inherited and preserve and slightly improve it They are bound by the actions of the regime builders

Regime Articulation n n Jefferson – followed by Madison and Monroe Jackson – followed by Van Buren and Polk FDR – followed by Truman, JFK, LBJ Reagan – followed by Bush 41 (and Bush 43 ? )

Regime Disjunction n n Disjunctive presidents come at the end of a regime and try to prevent its dissolution Political coalition is overly stressed and fractures Disjunctive presidents face new issues and are unable to deal with them The old regime is rapidly deteriorating and these presidents preside over its eventual collapse Their task is almost impossible and they are usually viewed as failures

Regime Disjunction n n Jefferson regime falls apart under JQ Adams Jackson regime falls apart under Pierce/Buchanan Lincoln regime falls apart under Hoover FDR regime falls apart under Carter

Regime Construction Regime Articulation Regime Disjunction

Regime Opposition n n n Oppositional presidents are members of the political party that is against the current political regime Oppositional presidents may win based on their personal appeal or some weakness in their immediate predecessor They are “outliers” to the existing political regime Their task is to make small modifications in the policies of the dominant regime without directly challenging it They are anomalies in the regime cycle and they must be careful in how far they can challenge the dominant regime They are followed by a return to regime articulators

Regime Opposition n Jackson regime includes Whigs Harrison -Tyler and Taylor-Fillmore FDR regime includes Eisenhower and Nixon Reagan regime (? ) includes Clinton and Obama

Regime Disjunction n n Jimmy Carter, 1977 -81 n Presided over the final collapse of the FDR regime White southerners fleeing the Democratic Party for a decade Big government economic intervention unable to deal with the economic challenges of the 1970 s Unable to rejuvenate a decaying political regime Skowronek would say the Carter presidency was “doomed” because of regime decay

Regime Construction n n Ronald Reagan, 1981 -89 n Created a new conservative program of tax cuts, defense increases, and attempts to shrink the size of government Following discredited Carter presidency New Republican Party includes evangelicals and “Reagan Democrats” Republican Senate and working majority in the House Despite his failings, restored belief that a President could be successful Skowronek wonders how complete this new regime really was, limited success in fundamentally shrinking government

Regime Articulation n n George H. W. Bush, 1989 -93 n Managed the next phase of the “Reagan revolution” Great political resume, but lacked the charisma of Reagan A “kinder and gentler” version of Reaganism Successful management of end of the Cold War and first Gulf War Tax increases seen as betrayal of Reaganism Lost re-election due to candidate Bill Clinton, mild recession and independent Ross Perot

Regime Opposition n n Bill Clinton, 19932001 n n Democrat elected (43%) in the midst of new Republican regime Tried to create a “Third Way” between outmoded Democratic policies and Reaganism Failed in effort to create government health care program Repositioned his policies after Republican take-over of House in 1994 Co-opted Republican polices like welfare reform and free trade Despite impeachment effort, left office with high approval ratings

Regime Articulation ? ? ? n n George W. Bush, 2001 -2009 n n Modification of Reaganism with “compassionate conservatism” Avoid the “mistakes” of his father’s presidency Aftermath of 9/11 attacks hint at a new Bush 43 regime, especially in antiterrorism and the war in Iraq Bush 43 leaves office discredited and very unpopular (disjunction? ) Articulation, construction, disjunction ? ? Articulation with assertive approach toward antiterrorism

Regime Opposition ? ? ? n n n Barack Obama, 2009 -2017 Campaigned by promising to build a new post-partisan political regime Candidate Obama with the rhetoric of regime construction Fought with obstructionist Republicans following mid-terms of 2010 Limited by Washington gridlock and divisiveness among American people Followed a discredited Bush 43 but not necessarily the collapse of the Reagan regime

? ? ? ? n Donald Trump, 2017 - Regime articulator ? ? ?

Conclusion n n Skowronek questions whether the possibility of a reconstructive presidency who creates a new long-lasting political regime still exists Difficulty with Bush 43 and Obama presidencies that don’t quite “fit” his theory of political time Not even sure that Reagan was a truly reconstructive president (in the same way as others) Modern American politics and the 21 st century presidency may have undercut Skowronek’s theory of political time Let’s recognize the complexities, but not reject Skowronek’s theory yet