Pre-Diploma Internship Done by: Abilkhanova Zh. K. , FIT, 4 st year student
Contents v Introduction v Formulation of the problem v Imitation model v Results of modeling v Conclusion v References
Theme of graduation work: • “ Imitation modelling of evaluation investment attractiveness of the project ” Supervisor: • Candidate of Technical Science, Associate Professor B. K. Kurmanov Externship firm: • “Kiit Consult” in Almaty Date of practice: • From 12 January to 6 February
Projects and activities of Kiit Consult firm: 1996 -2002 1996 -1998 Preparation, coordination and carrying out the international projects which are carried out in Kazakhstan. Carrying out project: "Implementation of effective orientation of clients in sale strategy" in the food industry of Kazakhstan. 1999 Carrying out project: "The program for training in sector of environmental protection of Kazakhstan". 2000 -2001 Carrying out project: "Management training of objects of tourism and hotels of Kazakhstan". Consultation of the enterprises and the company on creation of difficult systems with use of the device of imitating modeling Preparation and carrying out the international conferences. Holding seminars and business trainings in more than in 100 enterprises and the universities of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Formulation of the problem Some firms are considering an investment project for the production of a new product. During the preliminary analysis by experts identified three key parameters of the project and identifies possible limits of their changes.
Script Indicators Worst Best 150 300 Unit Price (USD) 40 54 Variable costs per unit (USD) 35 25 The volume of the issue (pcs. Per year)
Other parameters of the project are considered to be constant values Indicators The most probable value Fixed costs (USD) 500 Amortization (USD) 100 Tax on profits 60% Discount rate 10% Project limitation 5 Seed money (USD) 2000
The aim of the problem is that by using the simulation device to estimate the net present value of the project. Conclude the feasibility of the project. In this case, we start from the assumption that all key variables are: • a) the probability distribution is determined by the uniform law. ; • b) the probability distribution is determined by the normal law. Compare the simulation results in both cases.
Block diagram modeling the process of evaluation of investment attractiveness of the project and block diagram in GPSS-model
The main results of the simulation experiments during 5000 are summarized. Main parameters The average value of variable costs (USD) Mean number of products The average value of the product price (USD) The average value in incomes (USD) The average value of the net present value (USD) The number of cases of negative NPV The percentage of negative NPV The law of distribution of key parameters uniform normal 29. 994 30. 039 222. 233 224. 834 47. 001 47. 047 1371. 536 1389. 116 3199. 200 3265. 841 243. 000 221. 000 0. 049 0. 044
Analysis of the results shows that in general the project attractive, the likelihood of a positive outcome uniform law 0, 951 normal law 0, 956 With an increasing number of experiments, these probabilities gradually converge.
Conclusion A necessary condition for stable functioning and development of the economy is an effective investment policy, leading to an increase in production volumes, the growth of national income, the development of various industries and enterprises.
The work presents a simulation model of the evaluation process, investment appeal of the project. The developed model is reduced to a software implementation, using the simulation system GPSS World.
Lesson Learnt During pre-diploma practice I acquired knowledge which will help me to cope with my diploma project. I Studied 1, • how to imitate GPSS World system 2, • problems of modeling of difficult systems • carry out imitating experiments 3, • development of logic of modeling of system of processing and data transmission • development of the GPSS program of modeling of system of processing and data transmission
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