Power sharing in Northern Ireland or Power being

Power sharing in Northern Ireland or Power being shared out? : Comparing Devolved Mandates since 1998 Prof. John Barry 4 th December 2015

Summary Evolution of power-sharing under 3 Assembly mandates 1998 -2002 2007 – 2011 -2016 Overview of institutional and political dynamics From power-sharing to power being shared out? From involuntary coalition to government – opposition? Political development via crisis… The legacy of the past/paramilitarism

The NI Executive 1999 -2002 Equally balanced: 6 Unionists/6 Nationalists Executive formation protracted and disorderly Executive Dynamics dysfunctional and ‘chopped-up’, no Executive/Cabinet system DUP boycott Programme for Government = collation of departmental wish-lists – not joined up/integrated Outcomes limited and disrupted by suspensions

Instability the norm/sour interparty relations including between jointly elected First Minister and Deputy First Minister (UUP/SDLP) Assembly suspended in October 2002 due to lack of progress on IRA decommissioning This suspension lasted until May 2007. It was restored following the St Andrews Agreement, which was the result of negotiations held at St Andrews, Scotland in October 2006. Remember them? . . .

Assembly 1999 -2002 A ‘factory of grievances’ – echo chamber not sounding board Lack of trust and confidence amongst the parties Shredding unionist vote: UUP reliant on PUP and Alliance on key votes Unstable/disruptive/disrupted Assembly However…evolution of a committee system/joined-up scrutiny of departments

Executive Procedural Change after St. Andrews (2006) No joint election of First Minister/Deputy First Minister Two largest parties nominate No legitimation of Executive by Assembly – political parties not Assembly appoints Provision for cross-community vote/mutual veto at the Executive table Nomination of First Minister by single largest party Effect? Assembly elections a referendum on who becomes First Minister Undermining of the ‘peoples’ Agreement’ of 1998? Departure from d’Hondt re sensitive policing and justice Minister – Alliance not Sinn Fein minister (2010)

The Executive – 2007 -2011 St Andrews Act 2006 – deal between Sinn Fein and DUP (the two largest parties) Dynamics, broadly functional Outcomes, limited in 2007 -08, improved post-Paisley – notably re the devolution of policing and criminal justice in 2010 Programme for Govt. much more focused/concise – more joinedup Executive system more apparent – infrastructure of committees Executive grown – 12 Departments – party balance changed: 6 unionists, 5 nationalists, 2 Alliance (addition of Justice to devolved institutions) Inter-party relations improved: DUP/SF ‘coalition within a coalition’ – beginning of shift from power-sharing to power being shared out? Full participation of all parties in the devolved institutions – no boycotts

From the ‘brothers grim’ (1999 -2002) to the ‘chuckle brothers’ (2007 -2008)

Assembly 2007 -2011 Much more coordinated preparation for 2007 Assembly via St Andrews The Transfer of Policing and Justice Powers Significant change in party balance: DUP/SF dominance Power being ‘shared out’ between these two parties rather than power-sharing? (see later) Fewer parties, especially among unionists (though recently changed, fracturing of unionist vote – TUV/UKIP/NI 21/UKIP – UUP defections to DUP) Modest growth of Alliance, emergence of the Green Party

2007 -11: a period of consolidation not disruption Concerted committee system A more temperate, ‘business-like’ Assembly However…growing public dissatisfaction with Stormont And unfortunate timing that the Assembly is restored just as the global economic/financial crisis hits

Assembly and Executive Review Committee 2012 Number of MLAs/constituency boundaries/number of Departments/Community designation/Petitions of Concern/Opposition/Committee system/d’Hondt Broad agreement on reducing number of MLAs & Departments, very limited agreement on committee system reform, no agreement on Opposition (John Mc. Callister’s PMB), review of Petitions of Concern – have been used vexatiously to block legislation E. g. of marriage equality – use of Po. C by the DUP An end to double-jobbing – primary legislation

2011 - 15 Reform? Process of reform begun in 2007 -08: path laid beforehand Capability Review: internal governance of Assembly Reform-minded Speaker (Willie Hay – then Mitchell Mc. Laughlin) Engagement and outreach survey (see Parliamentary Affairs, April 2012)… absence of the civic forum Legislative achievements of this Assembly Term? 38 bills (9 related to budgets)

Power-sharing or power being shared out? Since 2007 – DUP- Sinn Fein as the two main Assembly/Executive Parties Multi-party executive but two party dominance

Flag protest and parading destabilisation 2013 -14

Stormont House talks – Haass –Sullivan Talks Summer – December 2013 May 2013 strategy, Together: Building a United Communitycalled for creation of a Panel of the Parties of NI Executive Parties invited Haass and O’Sullivan to chair TOR required Panel to “Bring forward a set of recommendations by the end of 2013 on [1] parades and protests ; [2] flags, symbols, emblems and [3] related matters stemming from the past” Seven drafts of the document were produced…no final agreement amongst the parties

Crisis - 2015

Stormont House Agreement II: A ‘Fresh Start’ (17 th November 2015) ‘An agreement to consolidate the peace, secure stability, enable progress and offer hope’ – focusing on: 1. the legacy and impact of paramilitary activity; and 2. the implementation of the Stormont House Agreement (SHA) of 23 December 2014. Key Features: A stable budget for the NI Executive, including additional UK Government financial support of around £ 500 million to assist the Executive in tackling issues unique to Northern Ireland, including support for their programme to remove peace walls; Welfare reform;

“Here’s the brutal, inescapable reality of the situation: how can power be shared between parties that don’t agree on the name of the country and don’t agree on the constitutional future of the country? Power can be exercised in those circumstances – and it is – but it is the power of the silo, the power of the veto, the power of the petition-of-concern and the bloc vote power of promoting your own side at the expense of others”. Alex Kane, ‘It’s time to face the uncomfortable truth on powersharing’, Newsletter, 10 th Nov 2014

Contd…. Devolution of corporation tax powers which is expected to lead to a reduction to 12. 5 per cent by April 2018; Allow measures to address the issues of flags and parades to go ahead; Institutional changes to make devolution work better including on the size of the Assembly (from 108 to 90), the number of departments (from 12 to 9), reform on use of the petition of concern and provision for an official opposition. Linked to Assembly and Executive Review Committee 2012

The future… Public sector reform – savings, change at central and local government (11 new councils since April 2015) Normal/ising politics? Movement away from involuntary coalition ? UUP left the executive (1 minister) 29 th August – due to the Mc. Guigan murder and issue of continued existence of the IRA Will UUP and SDLP become part of the official opposition after May 2016? Continuance of ‘power being shared out’ after next year’s elections?

The future– Fresh Start Reduction of Northern Ireland Executive numbers; Escape silo/party mentality of ‘Departmentalism’; need joined-up programmes OFMd. FM should be like the UK Cabinet Office, a strategic hub; Northern Ireland Assembly should be smaller; Committee Chairs should not sit on other Committees; Public Affairs Committee should be akin to that in Scotland (and especially in absence of a Civic Forum); Petitions of Concern should only be for communal issues, or implement a weighted majority vote without communal designations An adequately funded Official Opposition…beyond an involuntary coalition government system

Challenges/Prospects Managing austerity – hanging together. . or hanging separately? Flags/Parades/’the Past’ Spirit of accommodation? Political constraints remain Low public engagement/declining electoral turnout New era of unionist electoral fragmentation? Ongoing paramilitary threat and violence NI Assembly – out workings of an ongoing peace process ‘A bad peace/power-sharing…still better than a good war’?