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Power of Social Media Can it be leveraged to Protect and sustain the Natural Power of Social Media Can it be leveraged to Protect and sustain the Natural Capital AMS, Hanoi 24 May 2011 ? Rajendra M. Shende United Nations Environment Programme

A Dream A Wake Up Call Snooze A Wake up call Snooze A wake A Dream A Wake Up Call Snooze A Wake up call Snooze A wake call Snooze A dream A wake call Snooze A wake up call Snooze A Wake up call Snooze A wake up call S

THE NEWS THE N COPENHGEN CLIMATE FUNDCANCUN CLIMATE FUND NAGOA BIODIVERSITY TARGETS BONN PREPERATORY THE NEWS THE N COPENHGEN CLIMATE FUNDCANCUN CLIMATE FUND NAGOA BIODIVERSITY TARGETS BONN PREPERATORY MEETING MONTREAL YET ANOTHER MEETING DURBAN NEXT MEETING NEW DELHI TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER MADRID IPCC REVIEW OF FAILURE BONN NATIONAL INVENTORY COPENHAGEN MEETING HIJACKED CANCUN WHAT WAS ACHIEVED LATE NIGHT NEGOATIATIONS LULUFAC NAMA MILENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS PART ACHIVED LOT TO BE DONE RIO+20 KYOTO+15 STOCKHOLM+40 DEFORRESTATION DESSERTIFICATION EMISSION TRADING CDM COP MOP CERS TAR FAR COPENHGEN CLIMATE FUND CANCUN CLIMATE FUND NAGOA BIODIVERSITY TARGETS BONN PREPERATORY MEETING MONTREAL YET ANOTHER MEETING DURBAN NEXT MEETING NEW DELHI TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER MADRID IPCC REVIEW OF FAILURE BONN NATIONAL INVENTORY COPENHAGEN MEETING HIJACKED CANCUN WHAT WAS ACHIEVED LATE NINGHT NEGOATIATIONS LULUFAC NAMA MILENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS PART ACHIVED LOT TO BE DONE RIO+20 KYOTO+15 STOCKHOLM+40 DEFORRESTATION DESSERTIFICATION EMISSION TRADING CDM COP MOP CERS TAR FAR OBAMA ARRIVES USA NON RATIFICATION RUSSIA CANADA

GHG emissions increased by 25% from 1990 to 2004 Total GHG emissions 60 Gt. GHG emissions increased by 25% from 1990 to 2004 Total GHG emissions 60 Gt. CO 2 -eq/yr 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2004 …could increase by 90% by 2030

Increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 30% in the Increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 30% in the last 200 years. 2000 -about 365 ppm The IPCC projects that, if unchecked, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will range from 650 to 970 ppm by 2100.

GHG Emissions In Future GHG Emissions In Future

2010 Insurance Losses $37 billion from 2009 average $35 billion 950 with weather 90 2010 Insurance Losses $37 billion from 2009 average $35 billion 950 with weather 90 percent for 10 years related to . Ref: Munich Re, the world’s biggest reinsurer

Text Books to be amended Historical Action Text Books to be amended Historical Action

CFCs now in History Books CFCs now in History Books

Montreal Protocol is Working “Perhaps the single most successful international environmental agreement to date Montreal Protocol is Working “Perhaps the single most successful international environmental agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol, in which states accepted the need to phase out the use of ozone-depleting substances” “We the Peoples: the Role of the United Nations in the 21 st Century”, 2000, pg 56

… 20 years after the Montreal Protocol signed Demonstrates what can be achieved when … 20 years after the Montreal Protocol signed Demonstrates what can be achieved when countries act together and in concerted way to resolve global environmental problems Millenium Development Goals ……Report of UN 2007

UNPARALLEL COOPERATION Financial Assistance to Developing Countries UNPARALLEL COOPERATION Financial Assistance to Developing Countries

2010 Antarctic Ozone Hole • The white line at 220 DU shows the edge 2010 Antarctic Ozone Hole • The white line at 220 DU shows the edge of the ozone hole – We call this low ozone region the ozone hole because it is roughly circular (like a donut hole), and it suggests a hole (although 100% of the column is not lost). Image from ozonewatch. gsfc. nasa. gov

2010 Antarctic Ozone Hole • Before 1979, values of 220 DU were not observed 2010 Antarctic Ozone Hole • Before 1979, values of 220 DU were not observed over Antarctica. • On this image, the ozone hole covers a surface area of 22. 2 million square kilometers (N. America = 9. 5 M mi. 2) • 118 DU minimum on 1 October 2010 • 2010 is the smallest ozone hole since 1990 and the highest minimum since 1988 (except for 2002 - major warming). • 2010 is a below average ozone hole for these current high ODS levels. Image from ozonewatch. gsfc. nasa. gov

Bail out by the Montreal Protocol… 5 to 6 times the emissions reduction target Bail out by the Montreal Protocol… 5 to 6 times the emissions reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol

TECHNOLOGY FOSTERING: EFFICIENCY GAINS Experience of Montreal Protocol _ BURDEN Social & economic Cost TECHNOLOGY FOSTERING: EFFICIENCY GAINS Experience of Montreal Protocol _ BURDEN Social & economic Cost 1987 + 1992 1997 BENEFITS Year Ref: Ozon. Action

Regional Delivery ECA MLF ROAP ROLAC ROWA ROA Latin America & the Caribbean Africa Regional Delivery ECA MLF ROAP ROLAC ROWA ROA Latin America & the Caribbean Africa West Asia & the Pacific Europe & Central Asia

Regional networks Ozon. Action Programme Regional networks Ozon. Action Programme

It Is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the It Is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most reponsive to change - Charles Darwin LET US BE RESPONSIVE TO EMERGING CHANGES

January 27, 2011|CNN Social media @ the front line in Egypt As in Tunisia, January 27, 2011|CNN Social media @ the front line in Egypt As in Tunisia, the protest movement in Egypt is taking advantage of social media to communicate, inform and organize. Despite attempts to block Twitter, Facebook and other sites (the government denies it was responsible), a Facebook page devoted to Friday's planned protests had more than 80, 000 followers as of 2 p. m. ET Thursday, compared with some 20, 000 the previous day.

If we do not change our direction We are likely to end up Where If we do not change our direction We are likely to end up Where we are headed -A Chinese proverb WHERE are WE headed ?

Natural Disasters Natural Disasters

HCFCs production-Global (in ODP tonnes) 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 All Article 5 Parties HCFCs production-Global (in ODP tonnes) 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 All Article 5 Parties 20000 All Non-Article 5 Parties 15000 10000 5000 0 1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000 900 HFC demand 1998 -2018 - World, China & India (Source: Freedonia Group 1000 900 HFC demand 1998 -2018 - World, China & India (Source: Freedonia Group Inc. ) 800 Kilotonnes 700 600 World 500 China 400 India 300 200 100 0 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year 2013 2018 2023 The increasing trend of HFC demand up until 2018, with China driving global demand. The 900, 000 tons that will make up global HFC demand in 2018 is equivalent to over 2 Gt CO 2 eq

IT Enabled Low Carbon Economy IT Enabled Low Carbon Economy

There are still tasks that lie ahead Keep Walking…. -Mongolian Nomad rajendra. shende@unep. org There are still tasks that lie ahead Keep Walking…. -Mongolian Nomad rajendra. [email protected] org www. unep. org/ozonaction