c28cef24eabf95ebff633b4cffc3c783.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 33
Post GU 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Information for Better Livelihoods 17 th August 2011 Juba Regions Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations - Food security field analysts had a full access into all livelihoods of both regions
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists) q q q • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel (SIP), cattle (SEP), sheep/goat 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro pastoralists) q Southern Agropastoral in Middle Juba (Sakow /Salagle ) are more crop dependent, while southern agropastoral in L. Juba (Afmadow/Hagar) are more livestock dependent. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases q Lower Juba Agro pastoral: more livestock-dependent; main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases. q South-East Pastoral (cattle, goat /sheep): mainly situated in Lower Juba (38, 810 people - 68%), but also have significant numbers in Middle Juba (18, 232 people – 32%). q Riverine (M. and L. Juba): the livelihood is situated along the Juba river and extends to both regions but most of it is in Middle Juba (Sakow, Buale and Jilib districts – 57% of population; 43% in L. Juba disticts of Jammame and Kismayo). Main source of income of poor: crop sales, wage labor, self-employment (collection of bush products); main sources of food of poor: own production and market purchase
Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall • Start of Season: Generally, started late, 3 rd Dekad of April, ended early in 2 nd Dekad of May with intermittent dry period in both regions. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity, ended early in 2 nd of May 2011. • Normal rains: In localized areas in terms of amount (pastoral livelihood in Afmadow) but poor frequency and distribution. • Poor rains: whole districts of Sakow/Salagle in M. Juba, Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe in L. Juba experienced poor rainfall. • Hagaa rains: late Hagaa rains received along the coastal strip of L. Juba (Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe) in 3 rd dekade of July 2011
Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation: • • Remains highly volatile Military skirmishes along the Kenya /Somalia border Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • • • Restricted trade movement across the borders from Somalia (Kismayo) to Kenya and vice versa. Limited population movement Restricted pastoral mobility, particularly in Diif, Tabata, Qooqaani and Jiira grazing lands in Afmadow district Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends in Juba regions Districts Afmadow Hagar Badhaadhe Jamaame Kismaayo Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2011 Total Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Gu 2011 as Gu 2011 Production in MT Gu 2011 as % of Gu % of 5 year Total Cereal % of Gu PWA average Maize Sorghum 2010 (1995 -2010) (2006 -2010) 20 1 21 5% 6% 10% 8 3 11 2% 3% 5% 0 0% 0% 0% 245 0 245 11% 7% 14% 45 0 45 3% 6% 9% 318 4 321 6% 6% 11% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Gu 2011 Production in MT Districts Gu 2011 as % % of 5 year Total Cereal of Gu PWA average of Gu 2010 (1995 -2010) (2006 -2010) Maize Sorghum Bu'aale 180 12 192 8% 10% 13% Jilib 175 0 175 5% 4% 6% Saakow Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2011 Total 200 0 200 3% 6% 5% 555 12 567 5% 6% 7%
Agriculture Gu 2011 Off season Maize in Juba regions Districts Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Middle Juba 400 6% L. Juba 50 3% Total 450 5%
Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M Juba) Gu 2011, Cash Crop Production in MT Regions Rice Cowpea Sesame Onions Off-Season Cowpea Off-Season Sesame Pepper Total Juba Dhexe (Middle) 0 140 0 0 70 200 0 400 Juba Hoose (Lower) 0 20 5 0 250 1, 800 0 2, 080 TOTAL 0 160 5 0 320 2, 000 0 2, 480
Agriculture M. Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production 25, 000 Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995 -2011) 5 year Avrg PWA Maize Sorghum 20, 000 MT 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Agriculture L. Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production 14, 000 Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995 -2011) 5 year Avrg PWA Maize Sorghum 12, 000 10, 000 MT 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 2, 000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Agriculture M. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011 Gu plus Off-Season Cereal Production (1995 -2011) 25, 000 5 year Avrg PWA Maize Sorghum 20, 000 MT 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Agriculture L. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011 Gu plus Off-Season Cereal Production (1995 -2011) 14, 000 12, 000 5 year Avrg PWA Maize Sorghum 10, 000 MT 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 2, 000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Maize Crop Failure. Janbarow , Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor Maize Crop. Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011
Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Crop failure. Yontoy, Kismaayo, L. Juba, July 2011 Failed crop Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, July 2011 Empty underground storage Pit. Qed cajuso –Sakow July 2011.
Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow Juba regions receive maize from Kenya via Dhobley and Kismayo port as well as from Ethiopia (Somali Region) through Gedo region.
Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions Middle Juba Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main markets in Middle Juba Factors influencing sorghum prices: • Crop failure in riverine and agropastoral livelihoods Lower Juba • Maize inflow from Kenya and Ethiopia • High demand for cereals Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main markets in Lower Juba
Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability Middle Juba Factors influencing labor wage rates in agricultural districts: • Limited agricultural activities following the poor Gu season performance • Low labour demand Lower Juba
Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions Middle Juba Regional trends in purchasing power in Middle Juba (To. T daily labor to white maize): 3 kg in Jul ‘ 11 vs 15 kg in Jul ‘ 10 Factor Affecting To. T decline: • Significant increase in maize prices. Lower Juba • Decrease of daily wage rate Regional trends in purchasing power in Lower Juba (To. T daily labor to white maize): 4 kg in Jul ‘ 11 vs 17 kg in Jul ‘ 10
Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, July 2011 • Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions except riverine livelihood • Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of coastal, pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods except river banks • Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep. • High in-migrations that caused depletion of pasture
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Livelihoods Juba Southeast Pastoral Southern Inland Pastoral Conception (Gu ’ 11) Milk Calving/kidding production (Gu ‘ 11) Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: medium Cattle: none to low very low Sh/goat: low Camel: low Sh/goat: medium Camel: medium Sh/goat: low Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: medium Cattle: low Sh/goat: low average for camel very low Expected calving/ Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘ 11) kidding Livestock species Jul – Dec ‘ 11 Cattle: none Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline) Sh/goat: medium Sheep/goats: decreased (Below Baseline) Camel: low Camel: Increasing trend ( as Baseline) Sh/goat: medium Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline) Cattle: none Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline) Sh/goat: medium Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline)
Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Poor cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Lower Juba, July 2011 Poor cattle body condition. Litila Sakow, Middle Juba, July 2011.
Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions Middle Juba • Lower Juba Regional Trend in cattle Prices in Middle Juba (Jilib , Buale) : Cattle prices are 40% of June 2010 and 161% of January 2011. Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo): • Declining trend: 49% compared to same month last year, and 103% of January 2011 Influencing factors: poor body condition, poor demand, high supply, poor condition on marketing route, prolonged drought )
Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions Middle Juba Regional Trend in To. T between Cattle to Maize: 107 kg/head in Jul ‘ 11 versus 715 kg/head in Jul ‘ 10 Lower Juba Regional Trend in To. T between Cattle to Maize: 105 kg/head in Jul ‘ 11 versus 358 kg/head in Jul ‘ 10
Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Juba Valley: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate DIESEL 1 Litre Price per Unit (So. Sh) 80000 SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre 60000 RED RICE 1 kg 40000 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR 20000 Jun-11 Dec-10 Jun-10 Dec-09 Jun-09 Dec-08 Jun-08 Dec-07 Jun-07 Dec-06 Jun-06 Dec-05 Jun-05 Dec-04 Jun-04 0 Month Factors Influencing Commercial price Increases for imported commodities (last six months): • Increased taxation on commercial imports • High food and fuel prices on international markets • Low local cereal supply leading to increased consumption of imported cereals, causing elevation in prices
Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings Region Juba Nutrition Surveys (March – July 10) Juba Pastoral GAM =39. 0 (35. 2 -42. 9) SAM = 18. 9 (16. 0 -22. 3% (FSNAU & partners, July’ 11, R=1) Juba Riverine GAM = 45. 3 (41. 049. 7)and SAM = 21. 7 (18. 7 -25. 0) (FSNAU & partners, July’ 11, R=1) Juba Agro-pastoral GAM = 34. 4 (30. 3 -38. 6) and SAM = 12. 3 (9. 515. 8) (FSNAU & partners, July’ 11, R=1) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12. 5 cm) MUAC <12. 5=19 MUAC <11. 5=5 Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ’ 09/10 High and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood s but decreasing in the riverine livelihoods’ facilities OTP admission show mixed trends, with high and fluctuating number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP in pastoral and agro-pastoral, but low and fluctuating trends in the riverine facilities ( Aggravating factors -High morbidity with pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine samples reportedly ill. -Limited access to health and feeding facility due to distance and insecurity -Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water -Suboptimal child care/feeding Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’ 10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS Data , Jan-June’ 11 R=3) Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS Data , Jan-June’ 11 R=3) Mitigating factors - No mitigating factors has been noted Juba. Riverine: Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’ 10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration Juba Agropastoral Very Critical – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’ 10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration
JUBA Nutrition Situation Estimates Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008 -2010) Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating factors q q q Limited food access due to impact of drought on crop production and cattle and sheep Poor humanitarian access limiting delivery of health and nutrition services High morbidity and poor health seeking behaviors Limited access to safe water, sanitation & health facilities Poor infant and young child feeding Mitigating factors q q q Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral community (mainly camel) Increased income from sale of fodder in riverine charcoal burning for income generation with long-term negative impact on the environment Limited nutrition interventions on going
JUBA Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 Key IPC Reference Outcomes Urban Population: Middle Juba: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC Lower Juba: 75%P in HE; 25%P and 50%M in AFLC Rural Population: L& M Juba Southern Agropastoral (25% P-Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M -HE; 50% M – AFLC); L. Juba Agropastoral (25% P- Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M – AFLC); Juba Riverine (50% P -Famine and 50%P-HE; 100%M –HE); Juba South East Pastoral (100% P-HE; 100% M- AFLC ); Juba Southern Inland Pastoral (75% P- AFLC) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2, 100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2, 100 kcal ppp day MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation while lacking entitlement; 2, 100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7. 5 litres ppp day -human usage only); AFLC (7. 5 -15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping) Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)
Juba Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation Aggravating Factors: q Late start of Gu 2011 rains with very poor, localized coverage and intensity; q Significant decrease in cereal production in riverine (maize) and complete failure in agropastoral (sorghum): L. Juba (321 MT; 6% of PWA); M. Juba (567 MT; 6% of PWA); q Absence of stocks following two consecutive seasons of crop failure q Poor pasture across the region except in the river banks that are infested with tsetse flies; q Shortage of water in the key pastoral areas due to poor rains and early depletion following the high livestock in-migration mainly from Kenya and Gedo region; q Decreased herd sizes and livestock holding (cattle, sheep/goat); q Poor livestock body conditions and decline in livestock production and reproduction (cattle, sheep & goats); q Significant increase in maize prices from a year ago (93% ); q Unstable security situation- mainly along the border with Kenya – Dobley , Kulbiyow and Diif of Afmadow district – affecting trade movement q Low livestock prices (mainly for cattle) due to poor body conditions and poor access to Garissa market (shortage of pasture and water along the trekking routes and civil insecurity) q Increased taxation on commercial imports by local administration, contributing to food price increases; q Weak purchasing power: To. T of 4 kg maize/labour wage (66% decline) and 25 kg maize/local goat (72% decline) compared to June 2010; q Increased distress coping strategies (charcoal production, indebtedness); Mitigating Factors: q Sustained baseline levels of camel holdings and availability of milking animals in pastoral areas; q Hagaa off-season cash and cereal crop productions: L/M Juba (cowpea, sesame and maize); q Charcoal production despite low prices; q Limited food assistance, mainly from ICRC q Social support
Juba Rural Population in Crisis by District Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Gu 2011 Famine Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Middle Juba Bu'aale 45, 901 8, 000 9, 000 7, 000 26, 000 5, 000 Jilib 83, 464 12, 000 13, 000 11, 000 37, 000 Saakow/Salagle 54, 773 10, 000 8, 000 9, 000 26, 000 5, 000 184, 138 30, 000 27, 000 89, 000 17, 000 SUB-TOTAL Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 44, 212 7, 000 3, 000 14, 000 2, 000 Badhaadhe 32, 828 7, 000 2, 000 11, 000 Jamaame 106, 734 12, 000 17, 000 45, 000 10, 000 Kismaayo 77, 334 9, 000 6, 000 20, 000 22, 000 4, 000 SUB-TOTAL 261, 108 35, 000 28, 000 53, 000 92, 000 17, 000 GRAND TOTAL 445, 246 65, 000 58, 000 80, 000 181, 000 34, 000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 123, 000 295, 000
Juba Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle Juba Pump Irrigated Riv Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 GU 2011 Estimated Population Acute Food and Humanitarian of Affected Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) Famine 10, 984 0 0 0 17, 297 3, 000 6, 000 0 12, 000 3, 000 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8, 780 2, 000 1, 000 2, 000 4, 000 1, 000 South-East Pastoral 18, 232 4, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 Southern Agro-Past 46, 816 12, 000 4, 000 13, 000 26, 000 4, 000 Southern Inland Past 22, 725 0 0 2, 000 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 59, 304 9, 000 18, 000 0 42, 000 9, 000 184, 138 30, 000 27, 000 89, 000 17, 000 SUB-TOTAL Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33, 354 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 70, 183 14, 000 7, 000 19, 000 34, 000 7, 000 South-East Pastoral 38, 810 9, 000 3, 000 21, 000 12, 000 0 Southern Agro-Past 11, 637 3, 000 1, 000 3, 000 6, 000 1, 000 Southern Inland Past 50, 119 0 0 10, 000 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 57, 005 9, 000 17, 000 0 40, 000 9, 000 SUB-TOTAL 261, 108 35, 000 28, 000 53, 000 92, 000 17, 000 GRAND TOTAL 445, 246 65, 000 58, 000 80, 000 181, 000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 123, 000 295, 000 34, 000
Juba Urban Population in Crisis Deyr 2010/11 District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Juba Dhexe (Middle) Acute Food Humanitarian and Livelihood Emergency Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Gu 2011 Acute Food Humanitarian Total in AFLC and Livelihood Emergency or HE as % of Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Urban population Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population 59, 489 113, 415 13, 588 29, 951 0 0 65, 973 11, 200 0 4, 000 36 Sub-Total 238, 877 Juba Hoose (Lower) 54, 739 0 26, 000 47 0 26, 000 47 51, 334 7, 122 2, 000 0 28 1, 000 2, 000 42 38, 640 5, 812 2, 000 0 34 1, 000 2, 000 52 129, 149 166, 667 385, 790 22, 415 89, 333 124, 682 8, 000 16, 000 28, 000 0 36 18 22 2, 000 8, 000 12, 000 6, 000 23, 000 36 35 36 624, 667 179, 421 28, 000 26, 000 30 12, 000 59, 000 40 Bu'aale Jilib Saakow/Salagle Afmadow/Xagar Badhaadhe Jamaame Kismaayo Sub-Total Grand Total 7, 000 15, 000 52 50 0 0 7, 000 15, 000 52 50
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