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DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION
DENSELY POPULATED AREA
LOTS OF PEOPLE PER SQUARE KM
Physical Factors (Climate, Relief) • Ideal temperate climate for people to live in (eg Los Angeles) • Eg River Nile – has irrigated fertile land to farm which attract people to it • Eg Japan – because it is a very small area so people are squashed into the country – there is nowhere else to go • · WARM • · ADEQUATE RAIN FOR CROPS • NOT MOUNTAINOUS – FLAT LAND FOR BUILDING
Social Factors Eg Nigeria - the birth rate is very high due to lack of contraceptives. The death rate is also falling due to improvements in health care. Eg India because people can’t afford to move away Eg China – massive birth rate historically – since 1979 have introduced the “One Child Policy” Eg Sydney – historically this is where the prisoners were taken to and a settlement grew up there · LOW CRIME RATES WELFARE STATE – eg get a pension / dole
Economic Factors Eg Europe – because there is a high standard of living and so people want to move there Eg East coast of USA – lots of job opportunities – eg New York – this is where the former migrants from Europe headed to NYC Eg Nigeria – has lots of Oil reserves which attracts in-migration. Eg South Africa – the richest African country – so attracts people to work there · LOW UNEMPLOYMENT AND LOW INTEREST RATES LOTS OF JOBS
SPARSELY POPULATED AREA
ONLY A FEW PEOPLE PER SQUARE KM
Physical Factors (Climate, Relief) • EG Alaska – because very cold, inhospitable climate – including mountainous regions – eg Mount Mc. Kinley • Eg Greenland – 3 km thick ice sheet! – hardly any land that is not covered by ice to grow crops – very cold! • Eg Iceland – very cold – lots of glaciers – isolated – volcano threat • Eg Ural Mountains of Russia – mountainous – not great for growing crops • Eg Saudi Arabian desert – very hot – no water to grow crops • Eg Amazon Rainforest – poor quality soils • TOO COLD – TOO HOT – NO FLAT LAND – POOR SOILS – TOO ISOLATED
Social Factors · Lack of welfare state – I. e. no pensions given by government; no job seekers allowance – family looks after you in old age High rates of unemployment High interest rates on loans Poor quality of life Poor hospital facilities Lack of vaccinations – eg for AIDs pandemic High crime rates – eg armed coups, large criminal rackets
Economic Factors • Not many jobs and opportunities • High taxation • No income support • High rates of inflation – ie where money devalues quickly • No industry to provide growth • No support from a distant government – eg Siberia
Isle of Lewis Accessibility > only 3 ferries every day to the mainland of Scotland. 100’s miles from the centre of Scotland’s population. Very remote. Relief (shape of land) > quite hilly so not good for buildings Drainage > lots of lakes – poor drainage – boggy / marshy – peat bogs Climate > Very very wet – experiences full force of Atlantic gales – warm conditions attract midges! Resources > Peat is only resource! – poor soils Employment > few jobs – only fishing, crofting, making tweed Services > Stornoway main town – few services
Port Talbot Accessibility > M 4 motorway goes straight through this area Relief > mostly a coastal plain lying between highlands of South Wales and Severn Estuary Drainage > well drained good for farming Climate > can be wet but temperatures much warmer than Isle of Lewis Resources > Coal , iron ore, limestone all contributed to the local iron and steel industry which has attracted people for jobs in the area Employment > lots of jobs – eg oil refineries (Swansea) Services > Swansea city nearby – offer a wide range – eg large hospitals, schools, cinemas etc
Chloropleth Map for Population of Derbyshire 1991 Above 200, 000 – eg Derby (218, 800) 100, 001 to 200, 000 – eg Ambervalley (111, 900) 80, 000 to 100000 – eg High Peak (85, 100) Less than 80, 000 – eg Bolsover (70, 400) Colour in the regions of Derbyshire as per Q 4 a and 4 b, p 71 And Figure 2. 11
World Population Distribution Describe > Asia has 59% of the world’s population. Europe (CIS) has 16%; the smallest is Oceania with 1%. Explain > (in Asia) The death rates are slowly falling due to an increase in health care and vaccinations. People are living longer. The birth rate is high – there are 5/6 children per family as there is little contraception available and implemented. Why should they have small families when children are seen as a free labour supply on your farm and will look after you in old age. Also seen as a sign of virility (especially in India)
Thomas Malthus: He said that when population levels rose about that of food production - 3 “checks” would occur: 1. Wars - eg Somalia 1990 s 2. Famine 3. Disease these checks would bring population levels down again in line with food production. Another demographer Boserup - she disagrees with Malthus (19 C) - she says that humans will find ways of coping through advances in medicine and technology - eg living on the moon!
Carry Capacity = The maximum number of people that can be supported by the available resources. After this point (C. C. ) to 2 theories have been proposed: 1. Malthus – he said that WAR, FAMINE and DISEASE would result in people dying and the population being “CHECKED” (or brought back to the carrying capacity level). 2. Boserup – she said that humans will find the technology to cope with the ever increasing number of mouths to feed – example Island of Mauritius Optimum Population = where there is a healthy balance between the number of people and available resources – I. e. there is enough to go around. If this point is reached a state of OVER-POPULATION is said to occur – (ie too many people in relation to resources)
Natural Increase = Number of Births – Number of Deaths If the Natural Increase (NI) is positive – the population will grow in size – eg India. If the natural increase is negative – the country will shrink in number – eg Sweden, Italy, Germany.
UK Population Pyramid: 2000 – Birth Rate is stable, death rate is medium – and there are more females than males in old age. 2025 – Birth Rate decreases and death rate decreases 2050 – Birth rate has fallen again and the death rate is VERY low. Natural Increase is negative – so the population will decline? The reason why there are fewer children is because they are expensive And because more women are pursuing careers and therefore do not have time for a family. The government will therefore need to plan for: • More old peoples homes • Increase retirement age so they can get more tax from you • Increase in taxation to pay for old peoples homes and care • The increase in power of the “grey vote” = the power of the vote of old people
Levels of Population The Three Levels of Population 1 – Under Population This describes the situation where there are more resources in an area than the population needs. In most respects this is a good situation, as populations can stockpile resources or sell / donate resources, but it can mean resources are underused.
Levels of Population The Three Levels of Population 2 – Overpopulation When an area is overpopulated, it means that there are not enough resources to support the population. This may be because there are too many people or not enough resources. This can cause immense difficulties for the people in that area.
Levels of Population The Three Levels of Population 2 – Optimum Population When an area is at optimum population, it has exactly the right amount of resources to support its population. There are no problems with the population gaining access to the resources they need, nor are there problems with resources being underused.
Population Changes • The total population of an area depends upon changes in the natural increase and migration. • The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. • The birth rate is the number of live births in a year for every 1000 people in the total population. • The death rate is the number of people in every 1000 who die in a year. • If the birth rate is higher then the total population will increase. If the death rate is higher then the total population will decrease.
Natural Increase – p 72 Country Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Increase Nigeria 43 13 +30 = therefore the country is growing quite rapidly Mali 50 20 +30 = therefore the country is growing quite rapidly Germany 10 11 -1 = the population is shrinking Italy 9 9 0 = the population is remaining the same or is said to be stationary
Model 2: The PPM (Population Pyramid Model) The PPM - 'Population Pyramid Model' shows how dynamic (subject to change) population is. The model is structured to show 'snapshots' of a population at four points during its development, which are shown as Stages 1 - 4 (A - D). A country will progress through the stages.
The DTM Stage 1 Here the Birth Rates (BR) and Death Rates (DR) fluctuate at a high level giving a small population growth. BR is high because: 1. No birth control or family planning 2. Infant mortality is high so parents have lots of children to compensate 3. Many children are needed to work on the land as a free labour supply 4. Children are seen as a sign of virility (matcho) 5. Some religious beliefs (Catholic) discourage use of contraception
The DTM Stage 1 The Death is high because: 1. Disease and plague are rife (eg cholera, typhoid, AIDs) 2. Famine and uncertain food supplies – often encouraged by civil war (eg Darfur, Sudan 2004) 3. Poor hygiene – no fresh running water, no sewage disposal 4. Little medical science – few doctors and drugs Eg UK before 1750
Stage 2 Kenya
Stage 2 of DTM The DR is falling due to: 1. Improved medical facilities and hospitals are built 2. Vaccinations become slowly available – eg BCG 3. Improvements in food production 4. Improved transport of food, doctors 5. A decrease in infant mortality NB - Although still no birth control in this period. (UK 1750 -1880)
DTM Stage 3: BR now falls rapidly, while DR continues to fall slightly to give a slowly increasing population. (Eg Kerala, India) The fall in BR is due to: 1. Introduction of family planning – condoms are available, contraceptive pill, sterilization of men and women, abortion 2. A lower Infant Mortality(IM) rate leads to less pressure on families to have so many children 3. Increased industrialization means that machines do peoples jobs – so less people are needed as manual labourers 4. Increased desire for material possessions – aspirations to have a certain car, holiday, lifestyle – and less emphasis on wanting a family 5. Emancipation of women – VERY IMPORTANT – enabling them to be educated, follow career paths rather than being solely child-bearers. Also women choose increasingly to have a career over a family (UK 1880 -1950) - Sometimes population policies are introduced by governments – to encourage people to have fewer children – to reduce the Birth Rate – eg China One Child Policy 1979.
Stage 3 Brazil
DTM Stage 4 Both BR and DR remain low, fluctuating slightly to give a steady population. - Eg UK today in 2006 DTM Stage 5 It is thought that in stage 5 BR falls below DR to give a declining population (eg UK 2100) eg Sweden today. This is sometimes called negative natural increase or population decrease. Problems with the DTM: 1. Many countries cannot sufficiently develop to get beyond stage 2 – eg Sudan, Chad, Afghanistan 2. Although the availability of medical care is available in some countries they still choose to have large families 3. When Western Europe went through stages 3 and 4 the increase in population went off to the colonies in Africa and Asia – this is not an option for developing countries 4. Increase in population, economic stagnation and ecological problems make it almost impossible for some LEDCs. Only a few have successfully broken the cycle – eg South Korea
Stage 4 UK
Stage 5 Germany
Stage 5 Sweden
Demographic Transition Model http: //www. census. gov/ipc/www/idbpyr. html
How do population pyramids help us learn about population?
Population pyramids are useful because they show: • Trends in the birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate and life expectancy - these trends can help a country to plan its future services, e. g. more homes for the elderly if there is an ageing population or fewer schools if there is a declining birth rate. • The effects of people migrating into or out of a region or country. • The proportion of the population who are economically active and the proportion who are dependent upon them (dependency ratio).
Population pyramids are used to show information about the age and gender of people in a specific country. Male Female There is also a high Death Rate. In this country there is a high Birth Rate typical of LEDCs Population in millions This population pyramid is typical of countries in poorer parts of the world (LEDCs. )
In some LEDCs the government is encouraging couples to have smaller families. This means the birth rate has fallen.
Male Female The largest category of people were born about 40 years ago. In this country the number of people in each age group is about the same. Population in millions In this country there is a low Birth Rate and a low Death Rate. This population pyramid is typical of countries in the richer parts of the world (MEDCs. )
Male Female Population in millions In this country the birth rate is decreasing. This is happening more and more in many of the world’s richer countries. In the future the elderly people will make up the largest section of the population in this country.
Male Female Population in thousands This country has a large number of temporary workers. These are people who migrate here especially to find a job.
Population pyramid for Mozambique. Population pyramid for Iceland.
What happens next?
What is going to happen to Japan’s population in the future? Why does this matter?
What about India ?
USA v Thailand Pyramid Ex How are they different: Thailand has a higher Birth Rate than the USA. 1. This is because in Thailand it is an LEDC and children are needed as a labour supply to work on the farm and family businesses. Also there is no state pension or social security in old age so parents have large families as an insurance policy when they themselves are old. Also the levels of contraception are lower as is the awareness of contraception. Also they have more children as they know that some will survive. Thailand has a higher death rate than the USA. 1. This is because in Thailand the standards of healthcare not as good as USA. The levels of vaccinations are poor and hence the life expectancy is lower as the overall living conditions and standards of hygiene are poorer. The male-female split was similar and females generally live longer than males
Video 135 UK The birth rate in the UK is very low (1. 7 per family). This is because: 1. People are marrying later in life. Average of marriage is now 28 – in medieval times (1400 s) it was 14! 2. Women are following careers and so having less children and children later in life. This means that they don’t have enough time to have as many as they used to. 3. Children are also very expensive – so people are having less This could all lead to a declining population as birth rates continue to fall (eg Sweden, Austria)
Prep – due in____ Go to website http: //www. census. gov/ipc/www/idbsum. html And select one MEDC for 2000 and 2025 then one LEDC for 2000 and 2025. Then annotate them and label characteristics for: • Birth Rate • Death Rate • Life Expectancy • Infant Mortality • Dependency Ratio • Any any other points
Mexico to the USA A Tale of Illegal Immigrants
Push Factors – pushing someone away from an area • Disasters • High taxes • Poor climate – eg crops failed • High living costs • Religious persecution • Death of spouse • Remoteness – cut off from outside world – eg North Korea • Stuck in poverty trap • War – eg Sudan • Retirement – eg from UK to Spain – better climate there • Fed up with politics
Obstacles to Migration • Religion • Not having enough money • Politics • Don’t speak the language • Costs of travel is too much • Cant get VISA • Border controls • Immigration Policies – eg EU wont let me in
Pull Factors – factors which encourage a person to go to a particular place • Better climate - eg UK to Spain to retire • Better standard of living • Better healthcare / free healthcare – eg NHS in UK • Better education / free education – eg UK • More land • Able to marry at younger age • More relaxed media - greater freedom • Better security – eg South Africans migrating to a safer UK • More / better jobs – more money • Better minimum wage rate • More liberal democracy with more relaxed immigration policies
Effect on original area • Loss of labour and taxes • Production in factories falls – reduced a countries GDP • Money sent back home to support family • Not enough nurses or doctors / other skilled professionals as they are lured away to work in richer countries • Families split up – as eg dad works abroad • Strain on local services – eg hospitals – as nurses / doctors leave • Farms struggle to produce enough crops
Effect on Destination Area: • Strain on services – eg NHS or education or housing – UK / Mexico City • Growth of shanty towns in LEDCs – eg Mexico City • Lack of jobs – unemployment • New culture, food and music brought in – eg China Town, NY Little Italy, Boston – Irish Quarter • Crime rates increase – civil unrest – eg EU migration of eastern Europeans to London – criminal activity • Lot of competition for jobs – so wages fall • Population rises • Growth of informal sector – jobs that are cash in hand – eg window cleaning – shoe shining – drug dealing etc • Traffic congestion – pressure on public transport • Pollution • Migrants do less attractive jobs • Migrants end up working long hours
MEXICO TO THE USA • Why do people try to cross the border illegally ? • What are the push factors ? • What are the pull factors ?
A Typical Mexican Shanty Town Push Factors GNP USA = $26980 ; Mexico = $3320 IM = USA = 7 ; Mexico = 34 • Population doubling time in Mexico is 32 years – there is a danger of Malthusian checks (war, famine, disease) – better to get out now! There is not enough land to farm • El Nino – a climatic factor – which brings floods and periods of drought – leading to crop failure • 80% have no clean water supply and ½ children in rural areas – left school by 11 – most are illiterate
The Pull Factors: • LA is known as city of opportunity • Coca cola image – Hollywood image • Bright lights effect – Dick Whittington idea! • Often migrants go across border for seasonal work – eg fruit picking – they are fundamental to the US economy – because the Americans don’t want to do this manual labour! • 2 million illegal migrant attempts – 300, 000 get past border guards! • If caught deported back to Mexico! • Obstacles: 4 m fence, searchlights, 5, 500 border guards, dogs, helicopters • Most migrants head to where they have contacts – friends who are there already – this helps them get set up with accommodation, jobs – they work long hours
Maquiladora Developments: • In last 20 yrs more than 2000 US Factories have been built Inside Mexico • The attractions are: 1. Mexicans are willing to work For much lower wages than Would have been paid in the USA 2. Production costs are lower because There are fewer environmental controls in Mexico so waste can easily Be dumped and blamed on Mexican’s environmental budget! 3. Being close to the border, goods can easily be taken over for sale BUT – this has led to rural migrants coming to urban areas within Mexico. They catch hold of the American dream and try to illegally Cross the border in search of a better way of life Perhaps it would be better not to open these factories at all!?
1 in 3 chance - The border at night
1 in 10 chance!
Around 1, 000 people a year are caught by the United States Border Patrol trying to cross the border. Many of these are repeat offenders. What would make you risk a crossing ? What do you think most American’s think of the ‘illegal aliens’ or ‘pollos’ as they are called ? Why are some people glad to see the illegal immigrants?
Sit On It! It's not known whether Enrique Aquilar Canchola, 42, thought his disguise would work, but it definitely didn't. The Mexican national tried to cross the Mexico-U. S. border into San Ysidro, California, disguised as a car seat. A U. S. Immigration and Naturalization Service Inspector discovered the unusual camouflage when he checked the back of a van when it tried to sneak Canchola over the border. (London Times). . . He agreed to it after learning immigrants are often treated like furniture.
No, Please -- Don't Get Up! Enrique Aquilar Canchola, 42, photographed in the disguise he used to try -- unsuccessfully -- to sneak across the border from Mexico to the U. S. at the San Ysidro crossing, which can be seen in the background. (U. S. Immigration and Naturalization Service photo. )
The story of Pedro Morales • • • Choose what to buy with $40 – justify why you have bought these items - Produce a budget summary outlining what you spent your money on Choose and justify which of the 4 jobs you will do? Choose and justify which route you will take – wire cutters or swimming route? Some points to include: • Include maps • Include photos (google images) • Include photos of the job you will do – eg ranching , factory
Definitions • refugee : “a person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country…” • The 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees
• asylum seeker : someone who applies for refuge in a state other than his or her own • economic migrant : someone who migrates without a just fear of persecution, but with the primary intention of personal betterment
How many refugees are there? • worldwide : just over 12 million (January 2002) • 7. 8 million of these from 10 countries – all LEDCs • e. g. 3. 8 million Afghans • 554, 000 Burundians • 530, 000 Iraqis
Where are the refugees? • the vast majority are close to home • most are in other LEDCs • 48% in Asia, 27% in Africa, 18% in Europe, 5% in North America • 500, 000 returned home in 2001
Asylum seekers • • • 923, 000 in 2001 worldwide down from 1, 092, 000 in 2000… UK : 88, 300 Germany : 88, 290 France 47, 290 EU : 2% fall from 2000 -01
Internally displaced persons • • ‘internal refugees’ not technically under the UNHCR mandate estimated 5. 3 million in 2002 1. 2 million of these were Afghans
PALESTINIAN REFUGEES History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Population of Palestine: Year Arabs 1800268, 000 1881500, 000 1908650, 000 1922660, 000 Jews Ratio 6, 700 (40: : 1) 24, 000 (5%) (21: : 1) 70, 000 (9%) (9: : 1) 83, 000 (8: : 1)
Population of Palestine: Year Muslims Christians Jews Ratio 1922 589, 000 71, 000 84, 000 8: : 1 1931 760, 000 89, 000 175, 000 5: : 1 1939 927, 000 117, 000 445, 000 2. 4: : 1
1948 -51: Jewish population of Israel doubles
Palestinian flight/expulsion 1947 -50 • 1, 400, 000 Palestinians in Palestine on eve of 1948 war • From area that became Israel, 915 -950, 000 Palestinians became refugees – 60/120, 000 Palestinians remained in Israel • West Bank: 360, 000 • Gaza Strip: 200, 000 • Jordan, Syria, Lebanon: 300, 000
Palestinian refugees, 2001 • 81% of population of Gaza Strip • 31% of population of West Bank • 38% of all Palestinian registered refugees live in WB and Gaza • 42% of all RR live in Jordan (1/3 of population of Jordan)
Important repercussions of 1948 • No national sovereignty for Palestinians • Palestinians ceased to be a majority in their land, and became a minority in many lands – Political impotency (until 1964) and suppression; – economic exploitation; – social isolation • 15, 000 Palestinians killed in 1948 war (1% of population) • Village and kin relationships severed with dispersion • Marriage within extended family and village important elements of maintaining networks
Political results of war, cont. • Palestine reunited under one (Israeli) rule – Rise of messianism and Greater Israel – Palestinian identity revived • 3 separate groups of Palestinians in physical contact • Rise of the PLO as new actor • Conflict with Israel sharpened into Israeli. Palestinian one
Palestine. Transjordan, at time of mandates
The formation of Israel; late 1940 s
Israel & Palestine Today Link to BBC maps on Israel. West Bank & Gaza
Palestine Refugee Camps, 1948
Gaza Strip, April 2004
Distribution of Palestinian Refugees
Distribution of Arabs of Palestinian Birth or Descent Source: article by J. Abu-Lughod in Cambridge Survey
Yasir Arafat. Born 1929 (Cairo or Jerusalem); died 2004 Studied Engineering in Cairo; ran a firm for a while 1952 Joined Muslim Brotherhood and Union of Palestinian Students. 1957 Starts Al Fatah. PLO is formed in 1964, and Al Fatah emerges as strongest element. Arafat pulls away from a Pan-Arab line, towards one focused on Palestinian issues. Oslo Agreement in 1993 (2 states, land for peace) was controversial, even if it won him the Nobel Prize 2002 Sharon forces house arrest in Ramalah.
Palestini an Politics Source: New York Times, January 6, 2005
CHINA ONE CHILD POLICY
China One Child Policy
DANGER - CHINA’S POPULATION REACHED 1 BILLION (1, 000, 000)!
Background to the Policy: In 1979, the Chinese government implemented a policy known today as the one -child policy. The policy has at times been praised as an effective tool for ensuring that China will be able to continue to support its large population and at times reviled as a tool for human rights abuses and female infanticide (See Guardian Newspaper article)
Those who criticize the policy claim that it has led to extensive human rights violations and sexual discrimination. Chinese families overwhelmingly prefer male children to female children, and, as a result, female infanticide is increasing. Also, many people criticize the fact that abortions are often forced on women who are visibly pregnant with their second child. This often includes very late term abortions. There have been reports of mass sterilizations in the rural areas as well.
The policy was adopted to ensure that China, a country that has historically been prone to severe flooding and famine, would be able to feed its people. The rapid population growth that occurred after the Communist Party came to power had put a strain on the government's efforts to help its people. So in an attempt to combat the widespread poverty and improve the overall quality of life, the onechild policy was gradually adopted. The one child policy (1979), although not formally written into law consists of three main points. 1. advocating delayed marriage and delayed child bearing 2. advocating fewer and healthier births 3. advocating one child per couple
Problems with the Policy However, the one-child policy does not mean that all families have only one child. The policy is very difficult to enforce, especially in rural areas, where enforcement officials are more prone to corruption and families need to be large to support the parents in their old age. In addition, families sometimes attempt to circumvent the law by sending pregnant women to stay with relatives. The resulting child will be unregistered, making it difficult for the child to be educated and advance in life, but will still be able to support the family.
Exceptions to the policy: 1. ethnic minorities are formally excluded from the policy, although some have reported being forced to comply. 2. if both parents are only children, they are allowed to have more than one child provided the children are spaced more than four years apart. 3. families who have children with mental or physical disabilities are sometimes allowed to have a second child.
COMMENT: People who support the one-child policy point to figures that show that the policy has reduced China's population by 250 million. This relieves some of the obvious stress on China, which already has one fifth of the world's population. Also, education is very expensive in China, so the one-child policy allows families to concentrate their resources on one child, thus leading to higher standards of education. Furthermore, women, especially urban women, are now able to concentrate on their careers instead of raising lots of children. This has led to an increased role for women in the workforce.
Conclusion Furthermore, critics say that the Chinese government is taking a short term view by implementing this policy and has failed to consider all of the long range effects. For instance, some estimates put the ratio of Chinese males to Chinese females at 117 males for every 100 females, others put this ratio as high as 131 to 100. The average ratio is about 105 males for every 100 females. Critics worry what will happen when these "extra" males can't find females to marry (more on the “army of batchelors” problem). In addition, the one-child policy has led to the rise of the so-called "little emperors" - only children who are spoiled, since their parents and grandparents have fewer people on whom to spread their largesse. Studies have shown that these children are less interested in tradition than their elders and feel compelled to quickly carve out a niche for themselves in society. The Chinese government has been forced to start parenting classes and family clinics to deal with this issue.
China One Child Policy Debate 1. UN Inspector Team – argue that all things in Guardian newspaper article – eg abortion – human rights violations are wrong and MUST be halted at once! 2. Communist Party – 1979 “ 1 Child Policy” was needed – danger of Malthusian checks if we stop it! 3. Granny Police – need a job – if you loose your spying job you are on the streets – then the UN may come in again! 4. Young mothers – who want 2/3 children – not 1! – why should you only have to have 1 child – you are also in danger of loosing your job or having a forced abortion if you do not comply with the Communist Party
EU AGEING POPULATION
UK cont. The number of old people, or dependent people is going to increase significantly. This causes lots of problems for the government. First of all the old people need to be looked after in old age. Traditional National Insurance payments leave billions of £ worth of shortfall. Where will this money come from? 1. Direct taxation by the government 2. People will need to save more for retirement 3. People will work till they are 70 -75!! The birth rate is also falling in the UK as children are expensive to put through education and feed etc. People are living much longer due to increases in health care and treatments of cancer are improving. Also genetic treatment of disease is also getting better.
Dependency Ratio (nos of children under 15 + nos of people over 65) x 100 Total nos of people aged 16 -64 UK in 2001 = 51. 4 UK in 2050 = 70 The dependency ratio is going to increase from 51 to 70 over the next 50 years. This causes a huge number of issues for the government. 1. The state pension in the UK is not enough so the government has to think about raising taxation to pay for the ever ageing population
2. More old people’s homes will need to be built and nurses found to care for old people 3. There will be an increase in power of the “grey vote” in other words political parties will need to appeal to the older generation more in the years to come 4. The population pyramid for 2050 is very top heavy as the death rate is very low. The birth rate is also very low and falling. This may lead to a declining population or a negative natural increase rate. All this has come about due to an increase in medical technology, better diets and exercise so people are living healthier and longer lives. The government has to face up to these issues in the coming years.