Policies Against Global Warming Kyoto Protocol Effects

Policies Against Global Warming Kyoto Protocol

Effects of Global Warming n Effects on weather ¨ Drought ¨ Tropical cyclone n Glacier retreat n Rising sea levels

MIT’s Greenhouse Gamble Wheels Policy vs No-policy Scenarios

Policies Against Global Warming International response needed n United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1994) ¨ objective of the treaty is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ¨ industrialized countries, with the intention of stabilizing their emissions of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by the year 2000 ¨ no mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms

Kyoto Protocol an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFFC). n sets binding targets for 37 industrialized (Annex I) countries for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to an average of 5. 2% against 1990 levels over the period 2008 -2012. n

Recognizes that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity. n Thus, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities. ” n

n Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. n Article 25: Protocol enters into force on the 90 th day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

n 55 th signatory: Iceland (May 2002) n With the signing of Russia on Nov 2004, 55% condition satisfied. n 187 states signed and ratified. n Turkey: 28 May 2009 n USA did not ratify (responsible for 36. 1% of the 1990 emission levels)

Participation in the Kyoto Protocol

Commitments in the Kyoto Protocol n n n Each Annex I Party has a binding commitment to limit or reduce GHG emissions Innovative mechanisms have been established for Parties to facilitate compliance with this commitment. Annex I Parties must provide additional financial resources to advance the implementation of commitments by developing countries

n Both Annex I and non-Annex I Parties must cooperate in the areas of: (a) The development, application and diffusion of climate friendly technologies; (b) Research on and systematic observation of the climate system; (c) Education, training, and public awareness of climate change; and (d) The improvement of methodologies and data for GHG inventories.

Green countries = Committed to reduction Yellow countries = Committed to 0% reduction Red countries = Not committed to any reduction

Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) Annex I Parties are required to take measures to protect and enhance emission removals in the LULUCF sector. n UN definition of LULUCF: “A greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced land use, land-use change and forestry activities. ” n

Kyoto Mechanisms n Emissions trading (the carbon market) n Clean development mechanism (CDM) n Joint implementation (JI)

Emissions Trading an Annex I Party may transfer emission allowances to or acquire units from another Annex I Party. n Emissions trading does not affect the total assigned amount of Annex I Parties collectively; rather, it re-distributes the assigned amount among them. n

Joint Implementation n One Annex I Party can invest in a project that reduces emissions or enhances sequestration in another Annex I Party, and receive credit for the emission reductions or removals achieved through that project.

Clean Development Mechanism n CDM credits may be generated from emission reduction projects or from afforestation and reforestation projects in non-Annex I Parties.

Carbon trading may be in the form of: n n Emissions trading markets A removal unit (RMU) on the basis of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities such as reforestation An emission reduction unit (ERU) generated by a joint implementation project A certified emission reduction (CER) generated from a clean development mechanism project activity

Buyers and Sellers of Credits buyers are individual companies that expect emissions to exceed their quota in their assigned allocation units (AAUs) (or “allowances”). n they purchase credits directly from another party with excess allowances, from a broker, from a JI/CDM developer, or on a spot market. n

EU Emission Trading Scheme the largest multi-national, emissions trading scheme in the world n a major pillar of EU climate policy n currently covers more than 10, 000 installations in the energy and industrial sectors which are collectively responsible for close to half of the EU's emissions of CO 2 and 40% of its total greenhouse gas emissions n

EU Emission Trading Scheme EU accepts Kyoto flexible mechanism certificates as compliance tools within the EU ETS n The EU ETS was inspired by the Kyoto Protocol but it is also independent of it n It was enacted before the Kyoto Protocol became legally binding in international and EU law n

EU Emission Trading Scheme n EU Member States agree on national emission caps which have to be approved by the EU commission, allocate allowances to their industrial operators, track and validate the actual emissions in accordance against the relevant assigned amount, and require the allowances to be retired after the end of each year.

EU Emission Trading Scheme Periods ¨ Phase I (Trial Period) (2005 – 2007) ¨ Phase II (2008 – 2012) ¨ Phase III (2013 – 2020)

EU Emission Trading Scheme n At the start of each Phase, each government agrees an allocation plan with the European Commission n Plan indicates the quantity of emissions that will be permitted for industries during the Phase. n Once the plans are agreed, governments allocate allowances to companies in heavily polluting industries.

EU Emission Trading Scheme n EU Emission Allowances (EUAs): the right to release one tonne of CO 2 into the atmosphere. n The total number of EUAs allocated corresponds to the overall cap on emissions for the companies covered by the scheme. n EUAs can be traded across the whole scheme. A company in one country may buy credits from a company in another country.

EU Emission Trading Scheme n Phase I ¨ About 12, 000 installations, representing approximately 40% of EU CO 2 emissions n Phase II ¨ Average cut of nearly 7% below the 2005 emission levels ¨ Aviation emissions are expected to be included from 2012.

Enforcement in Kyoto If the enforcement branch determines that an Annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30%. n In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program n

Copenhagen Conference 7 – 18 December 2009 • the main points of a deal to follow the Kyoto protocol; • new targets for industrialised nations to reduce carbon emissions; • new targets for poorer nations to limit greenhouse gases; • funding for developing countries to reduce emissions and adapt to a changing climate

Need for a New Treaty Kyoto Protocol's targets for reducing emissions apply only to a small set of countries n Kyoto expires in 2012 n Need for an agreement that is bigger, bolder, wider-ranging and more sophisticated than the Kyoto agreement.

Main Players n USA: changing stance? n EU n G 77 (Developing nations incl. China and India)

Copenhagen Accord n n n endorses the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities the increase in global temperature should be below 2 o. C deep cuts in global emissions are required enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in developing countries, especially in least developed countries (LDCs), small island developing states (SIDS) and Africa.

Copenhagen Accord n n n Annex I Parties would commit to economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 non-Annex I Parties would implement mitigation actions to slow growth in their carbon emissions developed countries would raise funds of $30 billion from 2010 -2012 establishes a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund, as an operating entity of the financial mechanism, "to support projects, programme, policies and other activities in developing countries related to mitigation establishes a Technology Mechanism "to accelerate technology development and transfer

Committments to Reduce Emissions by 2020 Australia: 5 to 25% Brazil: 36. 1 to 38. 9% Canada: 17% China: 40 to 45% India: 20 to 25% Indonesia: 26% Israel: 20% Japan: 25% Mexico: 30% Russia: 15 to 25% South Africa: 34% South Korea: 30% United States: 17%

Cancun Conference 29 Nov – 10 Dec 2010 NY Times: "major step forward" given that international negotiations had stumbled in recent years, but "fairly modest" as it did not require the changes that scientists say are needed to avoid dangerous climate change Guardian: not providing leadership, not specifying how the proposed climate fund will be financed, and not stating that countries had to "peak" their emissions within 10 years and then rapidly reduce them for there to be any chance to avert warming.