Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments” “Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”. Recife, PE July 15 th, 2009
Energy Planning in Brazil
Brazilian Power Sector Planning HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE LONG TRANSMISSION LINES INTENSIVE CAPITAL LONG TERM INVESTMENTS HIGH INCERTANTIES MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION SEASONALITY RISK ANALYSIS FAIR TARIFF DIVERSITY INTEGRATION ENERGY SECURITY
Planning Process STRATEGY VIEW LONG TERM STUDIES (30 YEARS AHEAD) PROGRAMMING VIEW SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD) NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK TEN YEARS ENERGY PLANNING AUCTIONS Crude Oil and Natural Gas Electric Power Transmission Biodiesel
Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW) SOURCES 2005 2015 2030 Large Hydro Power Plants 68. 6 99. 0 156. 3 Thermal Power Plants 16. 9 24. 3 39. 9 8. 7 13. 0 21. 0 2. 0 3. 3 7. 3 Coal 1. 4 2. 5 6. 0 Other 4. 8 5. 5 Alternatives 1. 4 5. 5 20. 3 1. 3 2. 3 7. 7 - 1. 4 4. 7 0. 1 1. 8 7. 9 13. 6 13. 3 8. 4 100. 5 142. 1 224. 9 Natural Gas Nuclear Small Hydro Wind Biomass Imports + Other TOTAL Source: PNE 2030
Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006
Energy Integration
Storage Capacity (GWmed) Belém São Luís Fortaleza Tocantins Natal Teresina N - 12 João Pessoa Parnaíba NE - 52 Recife Maceió São Francisco Aracajú Salvador Cuiabá Brasília Goiânia Paranaíba Campo Grande Paraná/Tietê Paranapanema Belo Horizonte SE/CO - 190 Vitória Paraíba do Sul São Paulo Itaipu Iguaçu S - 18 Argentina Uruguai Curitiba Florianópolis Jacui Porto Alegre Source: ONS – oct/2007 Rio de Janeiro
Storage Capacity Evolution
Long Transmission Lines 2008 4. 000 km 2012
Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants Manaus B. Monte Itacaiunas S. Antônio Jirau Teles Pires 500 km Cuiabá Araraquara Atibaia N. Iguaçu
Transmission Lines Distribution Existing System Planned System
Hydro Power Plants
São Francisco River 4317 MW A. SALES PA I, III PA IV
Installing Hydro Power Plants Hydro Power Plant Life-Cycle in Brazil EPE ENTREPRENEUR ANEEL MME ANEE L EPE RENEWAL OF OPERATION LICENSE PRIOR LICENSE INVENTORY STUDIES AND INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENT AL EVALUATION 2 years FEASIBILITY STUDIES AND STUDIES ON ENVIRONMENT AL IMPACT ASSESSMENT 1. 5 year INSTALLATION LICENSE QUALIF ICATIO N AUCTI ON 0. 5 year OPERATION LICENSE BASIC PROJECT CONSTRUCTIO N 1 year 4 years OPERATION > 50 years
Hydro Generation - Criteria and Procedures Socio-environmental Analysis Scheme Socio-environmental Analysis Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Process Analysis Compatible Small delay Delay Recommended Level of Action Low Intermediate High Special
Environmental Assessment of Hydroelectric Supply Assessment Scale (Level of Impact) A B C D E non significant low significance significant high significance extremely significant Impacts assessed • • socioeconomic and cultural dimension Physic-biotical environment socioeconomic-cultural environment Two letters represent the assessment NN Classification of the projects according to the assessment Physic-biotic Dimension Physic-biotical dimension Socioeconomical Dimension A B C D E A 1 1 2 3 4 B 1 1 2 3 4 C 2 2 2 3 4 D 3 3 3 4 4 E 4 4 4
Viabilização da oferta hidroelétrica Required Level of Action Socio-environmental Classification Process Assessment Compatible Small delay Delay 1 Low Intermediate 2 Low Intermediate 3 Intermediate High 4 High Special Level of Action All projects with constraints to be qualified for taking part in the energy auctions Hydro supply classification according to the level of action
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG) Fuel oil Diesel Total Natural gas Coal 39 Mt. CO 2 eq. )
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG) GHG Emission (due to electricity production)
Biomass
Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production Harvest 106 ton/year 106 ha 2007 495 6. 9 2010 570 7. 5 2015 715 9. 1 2030 1, 140 13. 9 possible expansion areas for the growing of sugar cane Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006 The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment.
Technical Potential of Sugarcane Bagass Production of sugar cane (millions of tons) Technical Potential (TWh / year) Generation technology Harvesting system 400 700 1. 000 Without recovery 8. 1 14. 2 20. 3 With recovery 116 20. 4 29. 1 Without recovery 24. 3 42. 6 60. 8 With recovery 34. 9 61 87. 2 Without recovery 46. 4 81. 3 116. 1 With recovery 77. 5 135. 6 193. 7 Without recovery 96. 1 168. 2 240. 3 142. 2 248. 8 355. 5 Backpressure cycle (current) Optimum backpressure cycle Condensation and extraction cycle Gasification of biomass and combined cycle With recovery Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005)
Wind Power
Brazilian Wind Power Potential • Brazilian Power Sector • The estimated generation potential is about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of the current energy market • Taking into account the new technologies of wind power plants and the last wind measuring in Brazil (e. g. Atlas Eólico do Espírito Santo, Jun, 6 th 2009), the total installed capacity can be higher than 300 GW.
Evolution of Wind Power Technology Ø 112 m 4. 500 k. W Ø 70 m 1. 500 k. W Ø 46 m 600 k. W Ø 37 m 500 k. W Ø 30 m 300 k. W Ø 15 m 50 k. W 1985 1989 1992 1994 1998 2000 Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005)
Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources - 2003 § In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$ 130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6 th) Country 103 ton Share Cazaquistan 957 21. 0% Australia 910 19. 8% South Africa 369 8. 0% USA 355 7. 7% Canada 332 7. 2% Brazil 309 6. 7% Namibia 287 6. 3% Subtotal 3, 519 77. 0% Remainder 1, 069 23. 0% 4, 588 100% World Source: INB, AIEA
Nuclear Power Potential in Brazil Assumptions Lifetime: 40 years Capacity Factor: 85% Exploration Cost Reserves Generation Potential < 40 US$/kg U 66, 200 t U 3 O 8 8, 000 MW < 80 US$/kg U 177, 500 t U 3 O 8 21, 000 MW < 80 US$/kg U 309, 370 t U 3 O 8 35, 000 MW (Inferred resources included )
![Greenhouse Gas Emissions [g CO 2 -equiv. / k. Wh] (*) LIGNITE COAL OIL](https://present5.com/presentation/f013680004472810d7ba1d69a5552870/image-30.jpg "Greenhouse Gas Emissions [g CO 2 -equiv. / k. Wh] (*) LIGNITE COAL OIL")
Greenhouse Gas Emissions [g CO 2 -equiv. / k. Wh] (*) LIGNITE COAL OIL NATURAL GAS SOLAR PV HYDRO POWER BIOMASS WIND NUCLEAR 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 * Taking into account the lifecycle emissions 350 400 Source: IEA (2004)
Auction of “New” Energy
The Auction Process Ten Years Energy Planning Technical Assessment of Energy Sources List of Plants Qualified to Sell Energy Utilities’ Commitment to Buy Energy Auction
Power Auctions Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants Law 10. 848/2002 Auctions of “A-5” and “A-3” PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years Purchase in “A-3” limited to 2% of the load from “A-5” Purchase in “A-5” Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia A-5 A-4 A-3 A-2 A-1 A
Power Auctions PPA Belém São Luís Fortaleza Natal Teresina João Pessoa Recife Maceió Aracajú Salvador Cuiabá Brasília Goiânia Belo Horizonte Campo Grande Vitória Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Curitiba Florianópolis Porto Alegre BILATERAL CONTRACTS
Santo Antônio Hydro Power Plant - Madeira River General Data Installed Capacity : 3, 150. 4 MW Turbine: Bulbo Unities: 44 Unity Power Potential: 71. 6 MW Firm Energy: 2, 218 MWmed Energy Auction December 10 th, 2007 10 Site Energy Price - ACR 78. 87 R$/MWh or 46. 95 US$/MWh* Illustrative Design *1, 68 R$ = 1, 00 US$
Jirau Hydro Power Plant – Madeira River General Data Installed Capacity : 3, 300 MW Turbine: Bulbo Unities: 44 Unity Power Potential: 75 MW Firm Energy: 1, 975. 3 MW médios Energy Auction May 19 th, 2008 Energy Price - ACR 71. 37 R$/MWh or 42. 48 US$/MWh * *1, 68 R$ = 1, 00 US$
Historical of Energy Auction 2005 2006 2007 2008 dec/05 – 1º “New” Energy Auction jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau - 1º Reserve Energy Auction jul/08 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) 38
2009 - Energy Auction 2009 aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) 39
Annual Capacity Growth (MW)
CHALLENGE To supply energy at fair prices to develop the country following the principles of sustainable growth
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPE Av. Rio Branco nº 1 11º andar Centro Rio de Janeiro Thanks for your attention!
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