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PLACE, CRIME AND DISORDER Anthony Bottoms Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield Presentation at Social PLACE, CRIME AND DISORDER Anthony Bottoms Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield Presentation at Social Mobility and Life Chances Forum, HM Treasury, 14 November 2005

SCo. Pi. C (Research Network on Social Contexts of Pathways in Crime) ESRC – SCo. Pi. C (Research Network on Social Contexts of Pathways in Crime) ESRC – Funded Universities of Cambridge, Huddersfield, London and Sheffield Network Director: Per-Olof Wikström

TYPICAL RISK FACTORS FOR PREDICTION OF DELINQUENCY High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity-Attention Problems Lack of Guilt Poor TYPICAL RISK FACTORS FOR PREDICTION OF DELINQUENCY High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity-Attention Problems Lack of Guilt Poor Parental Supervision Low School Motivation Many Peer Delinquents Positive Perception of Anti-Social Behaviour

KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (1) Per cent of male youths having KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (1) Per cent of male youths having committed serious offence by risk/protective score and neighbourhood context Neighbourhood Context Disadvantaged Middle. Advantaged range Nonpublic Public Gamma High Protective Score 11. 1 5. 1 16. 7 37. 5 0. 23 155 Balanced Risk and Protective Score 27. 3 40. 1 38. 5 60. 7 0. 23 651 High Risk Score 77. 8 71. 3 78. 3 70. 0 n. s. 222 Gamma 0. 70 0. 74 0. 69 n. s. N 142 556 188 142 Source: Wikström and Loeber (2000) N

KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (2) Per cent of subjects with high KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (2) Per cent of subjects with high risk scores by neighbourhood context Neighbourhood Context Disadvantaged Middle. Advantaged range Nonpublic Public Gamma High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity Attention Problems 13. 8 20. 9 28. 7 20. 15 1, 436 Lack of Guilt 19. 2 30. 0 35. 5 46. 0 0. 26 1, 254 Poor Parental Supervision 15. 8 22. 8 29. 1 39. 7 0. 28 1, 414 Low School Motivation 21. 9 31. 2 44. 9 47. 6 0. 30 1, 432 Many Peer Delinquents 17. 9 22. 9 27. 7 29. 4 0. 15 1, 323 Positive Perception of Anti-Social Behaviour 29. 2 25. 8 19. 8 25. 9 n. s. 1, 431 RISK INDEX 13. 3 19. 9 28. 8 34. 9 0. 30 1, 148 Source: Wikström and Loeber (2000) N

Geographical Distribution of Known Offenders in South Yorkshire (Observed values at 1 hectare level) Geographical Distribution of Known Offenders in South Yorkshire (Observed values at 1 hectare level) Source: Craglia and Costello, 2005

Final Model in Craglia and Costello Area-Based Study of Offender Rates Log (Offender) = Final Model in Craglia and Costello Area-Based Study of Offender Rates Log (Offender) = β 0 + β 1 X 1 + β 2 X 2 + β 3 X 3 + β 4 X 4 + β 5 X 5 + β 6 X 6 Where: X 1 = Percent economically active unemployed X 2 = Percent of households renting from other (hostels, secure accommodation, prisons, boarding houses, hotels and other communal establishments) X 3 = Percent of households with lone parents with dependent children X 4 = Percent of residential spaces vacant X 5 = Index of multiple deprivation 2004 – health domain score X 6 = Index of multiple deprivation 2004 – crime domain score (R 2 = 0. 82)

ASPECTS OF VICTIMISATION DISTRIBUTION FROM BRITISH CRIME SURVEY % burgled % theft of vehicle* ASPECTS OF VICTIMISATION DISTRIBUTION FROM BRITISH CRIME SURVEY % burgled % theft of vehicle* % criminal damage to home Less than £ 5000 4. 4 1. 6 2. 7 £ 5000<£ 10000 2. 9 1. 3 2. 9 £ 10000<£ 20000 2. 8 1. 0 2. 9 £ 20000<£ 30000 2. 5 1. 0 3. 0 £ 30000+ 2. 6 1. 1 2. 9 High (Score 2 or 3) 6. 0 3. 4 4. 7 Low (Score 0 or 1) 2. 4 1. 0 2. 6 (A) Household Income (B) Physical Disorder In Area *Based on vehicle-owing households only Source: S. Nicholas et al, Crime in England Wales 2004/2005, Home Office Research Bulletin 11/05

Residents’ Satisfaction with Safety and Perceived Risk of Crime in Selected Areas of Chicago Residents’ Satisfaction with Safety and Perceived Risk of Crime in Selected Areas of Chicago Source: Taub et al, Paths of Neighborhood Change, 1984, p. 172

Perception of whether local issues are a serious problem in residential areas, 1997 -98 Perception of whether local issues are a serious problem in residential areas, 1997 -98 Source: Report of Policy Action Team 8: Anti-social behaviour

Regression Model of Residents’ Perceptions of Lack of Neighbourhood Safety, Sheffield 2005 Model Coeff Regression Model of Residents’ Perceptions of Lack of Neighbourhood Safety, Sheffield 2005 Model Coeff t Sig . 8. 40 . 000 Communities Working Together Scale -. 093 -3. 14 . 002 Area Declining . 692 3. 05 . 003 Seen PC on Foot -. 582 -2. 07 . 039 Non-white respondent -. 572 -2. 00 . 046 Knows of CP Programme -. 427 -1. 95 . 052 Quality of Local Services Scale -. 037 -1. 85 . 066 (Constant) Source: Bottoms and Wilson, 2005