Philippine Election Scenarios
Possible Scenarios # 1: Failure of Elections # 2: No Proclamation of National Winners # 3: Wholesale automated cheating # 4: A new government is in place
Scenario #1: Failure of Elections
Scenario #1: Failure of Elections Instead of a last minute decision to shift to manual election, the automated elections proceed as scheduled. On election day itself, the system breaks down in many areas, preventing the holding of elections. Comelec fails to put manual voting in place to meet such contingency. Long lines of voters feel frustrated and, sensing sabotage, they vent their fury on election authorities. Spontaneous protests break out everywhere, threatening to turn violent.
Scenario #1: Failure of Elections The military and the police step in to quell lawlessness. Martial law is declared by the President, who holds on to power beyond June 30, and proclaims the formation of a Transition Council to restore order and prepare the country for a fresh round of elections.
Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National Winners
Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National Winners The automated elections proceed as scheduled. PCOS machines break down in many precincts in some regions of the country. The results are however sufficient to immediately declare the winners in local races – councilors, mayors, congressmen and governors. Winners for national positions like senator, vicepresident, and president could not be proclaimed because the slim margins could be offset by awaited results from the other regions.
Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National Winners The House of Representatives is able to convene, but not the Senate. The Speaker is chosen by the newlyelected House, but not the Senate President. The results for the national level remain inconclusive even after June 30.
Scenario # 2: No Proclamation of National Winners In the meantime since a Speaker has been chosen by the new House of Representatives… that person can validly assert a claim to serve as acting President. That person could well be GMA.
Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated cheating
Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated cheating The automated elections proceed as scheduled. Votes are counted, and the winners are proclaimed. The results appear to contradict popular expectations. Charges of systematic rigging of the results through control of the source code gain credence as evidence of a pattern of automated adding and subtracting of votes piles up.
Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated cheating With no parallel manual precinct count to validate the automated results, voters become agitated Protests and demonstrations erupt in many parts of the country The troops are called in to suppress violence and disorder
Scenario # 3: Wholesale automated cheating The President declares Martial Law to save the Republic GMA holds on to the presidency until June 30, and then gives way to a multi-sectoral Transition Council to be led by her
Scenario # 4: A new government is in place
Scenario # 4: A new government is in place The automated election is successfully held The results are accepted. A new government is elected GMA gains a seat in Congress, and is elected Speaker. Or, at the very least, she controls a large enough block to be able to determine the agenda of the House
Scenario # 4: A new government is in place A law convening a Constitutional Convention is passed, and the election of delegates to the Convention is held simultaneously with the barangay elections scheduled for October 2010 A new Constitution changing the form of government from presidential to parliamentary is ratified in 2011 Speaker GMA becomes the first Prime Minister under the new Constitution, while the Presidency is transformed into a largely ceremonial role
Scenario # 4: A new government is in place Before all this can happen, of course, GMA will have to face many cases for corruption committed during her presidency It will not be very easy to pin her down given the way she has handpicked the members of the high court and the Office of the Ombudsman The ensuing battle will be protracted and will be fought on various fronts
Scenario # 4: A new government is in place Once again, political conflict will burden the judicial system We cannot discount the intervention of the military at any point, especially if civilian authority is deadlocked and is unable to govern and respond effectively to emergencies triggered by natural calamities.
COUNTERFOIL TO POSSIBLE ELECTION SCENARIOS: Continuing people's vigilance and citizen power (which foiled several Charter Change attempts) Crumbling of Lakas-Kampi-NUCD ruling coalition The U. S. Factor which has great influence over AFP/PNP and other Philippine institutions A patriotic armed forces that is professional and loyal to the Filipino people and constitution, not to a person who happens to be in power (long-term)
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