Pest Risk Analysis PRA Training CFIA-ACIA International Plant

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training CFIA-ACIA International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) 1

Stages • Stage 1: Initiation • Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment – Step 1: Pest Categorization – Step 2: Assessment of the Probability of Introduction and Spread – Step 3: Impacts – Step 4: Overall Assessment of Risk – Step 5: Uncertainty • Stage 3: Pest Risk Management

Pest risk analysis • Stage 1 (initiation) asked: – What bad thing can happen? Pest identity • Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked: – How likely is it to happen? Overall pest risk – How bad will it be? – Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable? • Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks: – What can be done about it? Response to risk

Stage 3: Pest Risk Management • Conclusions of pest risk assessment • Risk acceptable? PRA ends Stop • Risk unacceptable? PRA continues – Identifying options – Evaluating options – Selecting options CFIA-ACIA

Conclusion of pest risk assessment • Level of risk can be expressed in various ways – – Reference to existing phytosanitary requirements Indexed to estimated economic losses Expressed on a scale of risk tolerance Compared to the risk presented by the same pest at a different time – Compared with the level of risk accepted by other countries – Compared with the level of risk accepted for other pests

Acceptability of risk • Acceptable level of risk is established by the NPPO • When might risk be acceptable? – Level of risk is so low that specific treatment is not cost effective – Level of risk is no greater than that already experienced – Cost of mitigation is excessive compared to the benefit • When is risk unacceptable? – Pest incursion would result in economic, environmental or social consequences

Risk is unacceptable • Western corn rootworm in DE – Spreading in nearby countries – High potential impact due to crop losses over large area, increasing maize production – Natural & man-made spread – Unacceptable risk • Next steps: – Stage 2: Pest risk management – Identify appropriate mitigation measures, if any

Pest risk management • A structured analysis of measures that can be recommended to minimize risks posed by a pest or pathway • Measures can be implemented • – – – to the growing crop to the harvested commodity to associated materials Measures can be implemented at origin or in the exporting country at the point of entry within the importing country or invaded area

Pest risk management • • • Consider all pathways – Traded plants or plant products – Natural spread of the pest – Entry with human travellers – Vehicular transport – Associated materials Identify points at which mitigation measures might be applied Identify possible mitigation measures at each point Assess each for effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility …. Select appropriate measure(s)

Mitigation points Country of Origin Nursery or Orchard In Transit Packing House Containers Country of Destination Port of Arrival Plantation

Mitigation points Country of Origin ▪ Place ▪ Crop ▪ Commodity ▪ Pathway In Transit ▪ Storage Facility ▪ Container(s) ▪ Transport (ship, train, truck …) Country of Destination ▪ Commodity ▪ Pathway ▪ Place ▪ Other

Country of origin • Place/area of production measures – General or pest-specific surveillance – Historic data – Official measures to maintain pest-free status • Crop measures – Treatment of the crop, field or place of production – Growing plants under protected conditions to prevent infestation of the crop – Specifying time of harvest – Phytosanitary certification

Country of origin • Commodity Measures – Inspection or laboratory tests – Prohibition of parts of the host – Restricting the composition of a consignment – Pre-shipment quarantine – Specified conditions for preparing the consignment – Treatment for removal of pest(s) • Pathway measures – Targeted inspections, publicity and fines or incentives – Measures for machinery, modes of transportation, or packaging

In transit • Commodity Measures – Storage conditions may be specified • Temperature, packaging, separation from other specified plants etc. – Fumigation or other chemical treatment on board ship – Ship inspection before loading or at destination

Country of destination • Commodity Measures – Inspection of consignments at the point of entry – Treat the consignment to kill living pests – Contain imported consignments to limit spread of introduced pests – Post-entry quarantine – Limit use, distribution, or timing of consignments

Country of destination • Prohibition of a specific commodity from specific source – Only if no treatments or inspection techniques are available and effective in reducing risk to acceptable levels – A measure of last resort – IPPC principles of necessity, science -based, managed risk and minimal impact

Other measures • Document – Phytosanitary Certificates – Import permits – IPPC stamp for SWP • Phytosanitary Certificates – Official assurance that specified import requirements are met – Confirms that risk management measures have been taken – Only for regulated articles • Educate – Educate & inform travellers, importers, industry, government or public

Selecting appropriate measures • Phytosanitary measures should be: – cost-effective & feasible – no more trade-restrictive than necessary – not imposed if existing measures are effective • Different measures with the same effect should be accepted as alternatives • For pests under official control in PRA area, import measures should be no more restrictive than measures applied within PRA area Cost-effectiveness Feasibility Minimal Impact Equivalence Non-discrimination

Evaluating options • Evaluate each option for: – – – Effectiveness Efficiency Cost effectiveness Feasibility Reproducibility Potential negative social, economic or environmental consequences CFIA-ACIA

Pest risk analysis • Stage 1 (initiation) asked: – What bad thing can happen? Pest identity • Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked: – How likely is it to happen? Overall pest risk – How bad will it be? – Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable? • Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks: – What can be done about it? Response to risk

Selecting options Option A Option B Option C Effective √ √ Feasible √ √ √ Efficient √ √ √ Limitations No Yes Conclusion Do not accept Accept

Risk management example Country of Origin Nursery Country of Destination Packing House Ship Port of Arrival Plantation

Risk management example Country of Origin Level of risk Nursery Country of Destination Packing House Ship Port of Arrival Plantation

Conclusion of Stage 3 • Risk mitigation measures have been: – Identified – Evaluated – Selected • Mitigation measures to reduce risk to acceptable level are selected, or • No mitigation measures are available

Conclusion of PRA • Pest risk management conclusion: – selection of one of more options or series of options, OR – no suitable mitigation measures available • PRA ends – options form the basis of phytosanitary regulations or requirements

Costs and Benefits • “The cost-benefit analysis for each of the minimum measures found to provide acceptable security may be estimated. Those measures with an acceptable benefit-to-cost ratio should be considered. ” • How is this done? What does cost-benefit mean?

Costs and Benefits • Costs = costs of measure(s) applied – Industry costs: determined from additional costs / increased labour costs – Government costs: staff costs to apply and monitor measures • Benefits = avoiding the losses that the pest would otherwise cause

Costs and Benefits: example • A risk assessment of Pest x suggests that unless measures are taken it is very likely to be carried on imported host plants from the country of origin to the PRA area where it is very likely to transfer to crops and cause yield losses of $100 ha-1 year-1. • Based on spread elsewhere it is likely that the entire crop area of 10, 000 ha would be infested within 5 years.

Costs and Benefits: example Four options are considered 1. Source plants from a pest free area • But exporting country cannot establish a PFA 2. Parts of plants (e. g. leaves) prohibited • But will add cost ($10, 000 year-1) 3. Inspect crop at origin, apply appropriate chemical treatment if needed, inspect consignments before export and certify pest free • But will add cost ($40, 000 year-1) 4. Post entry quarantine • But will add cost ($300, 000 year-1)

Costs and Benefits: example 1. PFA 2. Prohibit plant 3. Inspection & treatment parts Effective √ √ (partly) Feasible x Efficient x Cost ($’ 000) N/A Conclusion N/A √ √ √ (partly) 4. Post entry quarantine √ √ No 10 40 300 Apply Too costly

Costs and Benefits: example • In the short term (5 years) the cost of applying measures will be – – Option 2= 3= 4= 2&3 $50, 000 (partly effective) $200, 000 (partly effective) $1, 500, 000 (fully effective) = $250, 000 (fully effective) • The expected cost (5 years) of not applying measures are estimated to be 10, 000 infested ha at a cost of $100/ha = $1, 000

Costs and Benefits: example Costs Benefits Ratio Option 2 50, 000 1, 000 1: 20 Option 3 200, 000 1, 000 1: 5 Option 4 1, 500, 000 1, 000 1: 0. 7 250, 000 1, 000 1: 4 Option 2 & 3 combined

Pest Risk Management • Risk mitigation measures are: – Identified – Evaluated – Selected • Pest risk is acceptable • PRA ends Pest/pathway Pest risk assessment Pest risk management