Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010 -2021 Presentation by

Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010 -2021 Presentation by Dr. Muhammad G. Sarwar at Civil Service College, Dhaka 14 June 2010 1

Presentation Contents ¡ ¡ Rationale for Development Planning in Bangladesh Guiding Principles of Development Planning in Bangladesh Chronology of Perspective Plan Preparation in Bangladesh Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010 -2021 2

Selected Development Parameters: Bangladesh, LMI and UMI Sl no Dev. Parameters Bangladesh LMI Countries UMI Countries 1 GNI per capita (US$) 700 1, 000 3, 700 2 Unemployment rate (%) 30 - - 3 Poverty level (%) 40 15 12 4 Gini coefficient (income distribution) 0. 46 0. 27 0. 32 5 Investment/GDP ratio (%) 24 35 40 6 Agricultural value added per worker ($) 338 513 2, 800 7 Manufacturing value added as % of GDP 17 24 31 8 Industrialization base narrow diversified Highly diversified 9 Export base narrow diversified Highly diversified 3

Selected Development Parameters (contd. ) Sl no Dev. Parameters Bangladesh LMI Countries UMI Countries 10 Child malnutrition (%) 39 30 6 Adult literacy (%) Male Female 59 48 78 66 89 87 Net School enrolment Primary Secondary 91 44 90 65 94 80 Infant mortality (per 1000 live births) 47 8 7 Maternal mortality (per 1000 live births) 570 240 - Paved roads (%) 10 48 80 Per capita electricity consumption (kwh) 146 685 1, 677 Mobile phone (per 1000 population 22 28 54 Law and Order scale = 1 to 5 1 3 3 4

Chronology of Perspective Plan Preparation ¡ ¡ 1979: Preliminary Thoughts on a Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 1980 2000 1983: Thoughts about Perspective Plan 1995: Participatory Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 1995 – 2010: Outline Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010 – 2021: making vision 2021 a reality 5

Guiding Principles of Development Planning in Bangladesh State Constitution ¡ Millennium Development Goals ¡ SAARC Development Goals ¡ Other International Conventions ¡ Election Manifesto of Party in Power ¡ 6

Bangladesh Development Planning is based on the State Constitution (Part II, Articles 9 -20) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Article 14: emancipation of the peasants and workers from all forms of exploitation; Article 15: provision of basic necessities of life- food, clothing, shelter, education, and medical care; Article 16: rural and agricultural development; Article 17: free and compulsory education; Article 18: improvement of nutrition and public health; Article 19: equality of opportunity to all citizen; Article 10: participation of women in national life. Article 9: promotion of local govt. institutions for improving public service delivery; 7

MDGs: Global Poverty Reduction Goals ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ MDG 1: Halve the proportion of poor and hungry people; MDG 2: Ensure that boys and girls can complete primary schooling; MDG 3: Eliminate gender disparity; MDG 4: Reduce under-five mortality rates; MDG 5: Reduce the maternal mortality ratio; MDG 6: Reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and the incidence of malaria and TB; MDG 7: Improve the access of safe water, basic sanitation and the lives of slum dwellers; MDG 8: Develop a global partnership to create a nondiscriminatory global trading and financial system. 8

Vision of the Perspective Plan 2010 -2021 ¡ ¡ Making Bangladesh a middle-income and a high HDI country by 2021, the Golden Jubilee Year of national independence Graduating Bangladesh to a resilient democratic nation l l l ¡ ¡ Democratic culture Right to information and free media Independence of judiciary Gender balanced society Food and energy secured country Knowledge based society Strengthening ICT towards ‘digital Bangladesh’ Protecting environment and meeting climate change challenges 9

Key Development Targets ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Increasing and sustaining annual GDP growth rate to 8% by 2013 and 10% by 2017 and raising per capita income to US$ 2000; Reducing the poverty headcount ratio to 15% by 2021; Achieve self-sufficiency in food by 2012; Transforming the sectoral composition of GDP with the share of agriculture, industry and services standing at 15%, 40% and 45% respectively by 2021; Reduction of unemployment rate 15%; Transforming the employment shares of agriculture, industry, and services to 30%, 25% and 45% respectively by 2021; Ensuring 100% net enrolment at primary school as soon as possible after 2010; Providing free tuition up to degree level as soon as possible after 2013; Attaining full literacy as soon as possible after 2014; 10

Key Development Targets (contd. ) ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Ensure living accommodation for the entire population as soon as possible after 2015; Supply of pure drinking water for the entire population as soon as possible after 2011; Bring each house under hygienic sanitation by 2013; Eliminate all contagious diseases; Increase life expectancy to 70 years by 2021; Reduce maternal mortality to 1. 5%; Raise the use of birth control methods to 80%; Reducing infant mortality to 15 per thousand live births by 2021; Generating 11, 500 mw by 2015 and 20, 000 mw by 2021 and ensuring per capita energy consumption up to 600 kwh 11

Development Priorities of the Perspective Plan ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Ensuring corruption free effective governance Promoting an innovative people for digital Bangladesh Creating a caring society Ensuring broad-based growth and food security Energy security for development Building a sound infrastructure Mitigating the impact of climate change Addressing globalization and regional cooperation challenges 12

Corruption Free Good Governance for Economic Growth ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Institutions of the State will be free from partisan influence. The basis of appointment and promotion in the civil service will be performance, commitment, efficiency, honesty and loyalty Self-reliant local self-government institutions will be established at Upazila and Zila levels. Local government institutions will play a critical role in governance as well as in development programes Anti-corruption movement Installing a transparent procurement system Formation of a effective office of Ombudsman Introducing agency performance ranking Targets for good governance l l Develop a country specific governance measurement mechanism by 2012 Develop a composite set of Agency Performance Indicators for the Ministries/ Divisions by 2014 13

Macroeconomic Strategic Goals of the Perspective Plan ¡ ¡ ¡ Equitable, environmentally sustainable, inclusive pro-poor accelerated growth; Productivity growth across all sectors of the economy; Acceleration of investment from domestic resources; Speeding up of employment keeping in view the issues of gender dimension; Stabilization of general price level; and Structural transformation in the economy 14

Macroeconomic Framework of PP Sl. No Benchmark FY 09 Target FY 15 Target FY 21 1 Real GDP Growth (%) 5. 9 8. 0 10. 0 2 Gross Investment (as % of GDP) 24, 2 32. 1 37. 5 3 Gross Domestic Savings (as % of GDP) 24. 0 27. 0 30. 0 4 Government Revenue (as % of GDP) 10. 4 15. 5 17. 1 5 Government Expenditure (as % of GDP) 13. 8 20. 5 21. 8 6 Exports (billion US $) 15. 6 36. 3 91. 1 7 Import (billion US $) 20. 3 49. 6 131. 3 8 Remittances (billion US $) 9. 7 22. 7 48. 5 9 CPI Inflation (%) 6. 7 7. 4 7. 9 10 Unemployment rate (%) 20. 0 15. 0 11 Poverty headcount (%) 24. 5 14. 4 30. 0 36. 0 15

Projected GDP Growth Rate 16

Projected Poverty Headcount Ratio 17

Planned Structural Change in Bangladesh Economy by 2015 and 2021 Sl Sectors n o Benchmark Target FY 2009 FY 2015 Target FY 202 1 1 Agriculture 21. 7 16. 0 15. 0 2 Industry 29. 0 35. 0 40. 0 17. 1 26. 0 30. 0 49. 3 49. 0 45. 0 Manufacturing 3 Service 18

Structure of Bangladesh Economy 2009 19

Structure of Bangladesh Economy 2021 20

Structural Change in External sector by 2015 and 2021 Sl Items (as % of GDP) no Benchmark FY 2009 Target 2015 Target 2012 1 Export 16. 1 22. 0 26. 0 2 Import 21. 4 30. 0 32. 0 3 Trade balance -5. 3 -8. 0 -6. 0 4 Remittance 8. 3 8. 0 12. 0 5 Current AC balance 1. 0 2. 0 6. 0 21

Vision 2021: education ¡ ¡ ¡ Elimination of illiteracy as soon as possible after 2014; Ensuring 100% net enrolment at primary school as soon as possible after 2010 with specific steps to address the dropout problem; Providing free tuition up to degree level as soon as possible after 2013; Emergence of Bangladesh as a country of educated people with skill in ICT; Moving towards knowledge based society based on science and technology education. 22

Vision 2021: health ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Supply of pure drinking water for the entire population as soon as possible after 2011; Bring each house under hygienic sanitation by 2013; Eliminate all contagious diseases; Reduce maternal mortality to 1. 5%; Increasing CPR from 56% to 80%; Reducing infant mortality to 15 per thousand live births by 2021; Reducing TFR from 2. 7 to 2. 2; Increase life expectancy to 70 years by 2021. 23

Agriculture Development by 2021: Crops Production Projection Sl Crops no (in mil. tons) Benchmar k 2008 Target 2015 Target 2021 Rice 30. 70 35. 39 36. 81 Wheat 0. 84 1. 16 1. 40 Maize 1. 35 1. 63 1. 85 Potato 6. 65 8. 76 10. 34 Oilseeds 0. 36 0. 45 0. 52 Pulses 0. 20 0. 26 0. 31 24

Agriculture Development by 2021: Fisheries Production Projection (in thousand tons) Sl Types of Fisheries no Benchmark Fy 2008 Target 2015 Target FY 2021 1 Inland open water 1060 1690 1764 2 Closed water bodies 1006 1409 1761 3 Marine 498 566 614 4 Total 2563 3665 4139 25

Agriculture Development by 2021: Livestock & Poultry Population Projection (million) Sl no Species Benchmar Target k 2005 2015 Target 2021 1 Bovine animals 25. 14 28. 47 30. 73 2 Sheep & goat 17. 47 19. 78 21. 41 3 Poultry 188. 40 231. 45 239. 85 26

Energy Security: targets for electricity production Benchmark 2009 Electricity Production (in MW) Target 2015 Target 2021 5, 000 11, 500 20, 000 27

Energy Security: energy mix scenario Energy mix (%) Current 2021 1 Gas 87. 5 30 2 Oil 6 3 3 Coal 3. 7 53 4 hydro 2. 7 1 5 Nuclear 0 10 6 Renewable 0. 5 3 28

Implementation Phasing of Perspective Plan 2010 - 2021 ¡ Perspective Plan 2010 -2021 would be implemented in two phased by preparing and implementing two Five Year Plans: l l Sixth Five Year Plan 2011 – 2015; and Seventh Five Year Plan 2016 - 2020 29

Thanks 30