permanent tsb House Price Index 10 Year Review

House Price Index 10 Year Review 2 Key findings u National annual price growth averaged 14. 9% over the last 10 years. u Ten year growth rate nationally 270%. u 1998 had highest annual price growth (30. 0%) & 2001 had lowest (4. 5%). u National house price grew from € 75 k to € 280 k between 1996 & 2005. u Price gap between Dublin and Outside Dublin increased from € 10 k to € 130 k between 1996 and 2005.

House Price Index 10 Year Review 3 Key findings continued u Key drivers of past price growth - favourable economic & interest rate environment; increasing population. u External shocks have impacted on general growth trends. u 1/ u Value of the Housing Stock has grown 4 fold to € 412 bn in last 10 years (Source ESRI). 3 of current housing stock (547, 000) was built in last 10 years.

House Price Index 10 Year Review 4 Agenda u Market changes and drivers u Price trends u Property ownership patterns

5 House Price Index 10 Year Review Market changes and drivers

6 House Price Index 10 Year Review Average annual growth 14. 9%over the last 10 years. 30. 0% € 150 k € 250 k € 100 k € 85 k € 200 k 2. 4% € 290 k

House Price Index 10 Year Review 7 A number of Government tax/grant changes have introduced in the last 10 years.

House Price Index 10 Year Review 8 A number of Government tax/grant changes have been introduced in the last 10 years. Bacon 2 Bacon 1 Bacon 3

9 House Price Index 10 Year Review GNP influence on house price growth.

House Price Index 10 Year Review 10 Fertile economic and interest rate environment has significantly helped the market thrive. GNP averaged 6. 5%p. a. Loan rate 7. 5% 3. 75% 1996 - 2005

House Price Index 10 Year Review 11 External shocks seem to have influenced house price growth over the last 10 years. Economist & IMF warnings IMF warning

12 House Price Index 10 Year Review Affordabilty broadly stable since 1998.

13 House Price Index 10 Year Review Price trends

14 House Price Index 10 Year Review Selected price growth rates from 1996 to 2005.

House Price Index 10 Year Review December prices 15 Price gap between Dublin and Outside Dublin has widened to almost € 130 k in last 10 years

House Price Index 10 Year Review 16 Urbanisation/ commuting/ demand for second homes key drivers of regional differences. €’ 000 s 6 month average prices

17 House Price Index 10 Year Review Top 5 and bottom 5 areas by 10 year growth rates. Note : Dublin prices are end of year levels, while other prices are yearly average.

House Price Index 10 Year Review December prices 18 House prices for a first-time buyer and non-FTB now diverge by over € 60, 000.

House Price Index 10 Year Review December prices 19 Prices for New and Existing properties have grown by more than three fold, while price gap has remained unchanged in last 10 years

House Price Index 10 Year Review 20 Majority of properties now priced over € 250 k compared to 1996 when most were less than € 100 k.

21 House Price Index 10 Year Review Property ownership patterns

House Price Index 10 Year Review Semi-detached continues to be most common property type 22

House Price Index 10 Year Review Property size shows no change in Dublin, increasing in the rest of Ireland. Size in sq. ft 23 .

House Price Index 10 Year Review 24 Significant rise in the percentage of apartments within DUBLIN properties since 1996. Dublin

House Price Index 10 Year Review 25 Commuter counties (Meath; Wicklow; Kildare; Louth) profile moving towards Dublin. Commuter counties

House Price Index 10 Year Review 26 Almost 75%of properties OUTSIDE DUBLIN are detached or semidetached; apartment percentage unchanged since 1996. Outside Dublin

House Price Index 10 Year Review Dramatic change in heating source over last 10 years 27

28 House Price Index 10 Year Review Summary

House Price Index 10 Year Review 29 Summary & Conclusions u National annual house price growth averaged almost 15% ‘ 96 - ‘ 05. u National price increased from € 75 k in 1996 to € 280 k at end of 2005. u GNP averaging 6. 5% and interest rates down to half pre EMU levels key market drivers. u Affordability broadly stable since 1998. u Dublin and Outside Dublin price difference grown from € 10 k to € 130 k u Significant variation in ten year price growth across counties. u 55% of properties priced over € 250 k in 2005 - just 1% in 1996. u 50% increase in no. of apts within Dublin properties over 10 yrs. u Properties Outside Dublin getting larger while Dublin ones unchanged

30 House Price Index 10 Year Review Appendices

House Price Index 10 Year Review 31 County price differentials have widened significantly, especially in the last five years. Note : Dublin prices are end of year levels, while other prices are yearly average.

House Price Index 10 Year Review 32 Housing completions continue to set new records Source: Department of the Environment (DOE)

House Price Index 10 Year Review Population - almost 50%(1. 8 m) of the pop. aged < 30. Net inward migration accounted for almost half of 65, 000 total pop. growth to April 2004 (Source CSO). 33

34 House Price Index 10 Year Review REGIONAL LISTING u BORDER - Cavan; Donegal; Leitrim; Louth; Monaghan; Sligo. u MIDEAST - Kildare; Meath; Wicklow. u MIDLANDS - Laois; Longford; Offaly; Westmeath. u MIDWEST - Clare; Limerick; Tipperary North. u SOUTH EAST - Carlow; Kilkenny; Wexford; Waterford; Tipperary South. u SOUTH WEST - Cork; Kerry. u WEST - Galway; Mayo; Roscommon.