Peak Oil and Climate Change AGU-Joint Assembly Toronto

Peak Oil and Climate Change AGU-Joint Assembly Toronto 26 May 2009 1999 - ~$10/b James W. Murray School of Oceanography University of Washington 2008 - ~$147/b IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008 “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable. ” Conclusion We know enough to see that Resource limitation Needs to be an IPCC scenario with special acknowledgement to David Rutledge (Cal Tech)

Outline • The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report SRES Scenarios • Oil Reserves • Hubbert’s peak – The history of US oil production – How much oil and gas will the world produce? • The Coal Question • Discussion – Future carbon-dioxide levels – Conclusions

Oil Production in the IPCC Scenarios 28 • • Gb = billions of barrels 1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 liters In 13 scenarios, oil production is still rising in 2100 In none of the scenarios did oil production decrease because of resource limitation. None consider Peak Oil! Oil production is never going to be more than today. 3

What is Peak Oil? It’s not about Reserves! It’s all about the Production Rate! We are not close to running out of oil

OPEC Oil “Proven” Reserves! Not proven by anybody! • • 430 Gb rise in reserves, no adjustment for 193 Gb produced since 1980 These questionable reserves are 45% of world oil reserves used by IPCC! A recent leak of Kuwait Petroleum Company documents showed the actual reserves are only 48 Gb (official reserves are 102 Gb) 1980 Kuwait reserves adjusted for production since then are 55 Gb From BP Statistical Review Gb = billions of barrels

M. King Hubbert • Geophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston • In 1956, he presented a paper with predictions for the peak year of US oil production

A model logistic distribution Oil Wells Peak - Oil Fields Peak - Regions Peak - The World will peak Everyone agrees that world oil will peak – controversy on the date

Typo: Million! US Oil Consumption today is about 20 million barrels of oil/day ANWAR will not save us!

Hubbert’s Peak • • From his 1956 paper Hubbert drew bell-shaped curves by hand, and added up barrels by counting squares For the larger estimate, he predicted a peak in 1970 Hubbert has been much criticized there is no consideration of supply and demand curves, prices, or policy, and new technologies

US Crude-Oil Production • Production is bell-shaped, like the curves Hubbert drew • Average price after the peak was 2. 6 times higher than before 10

The Logistic Curve or Rate Plot P/Q = m. Q + a Q for which P/Q = 0 is 198 gigabarrels of oil. Also called Qt (maximum cumulative production) Half of this is 99 which occurred in 1973 Lower 48 A model for exponential growth in a finite system

Another Approach: Cumulative Oil Production 225 Gb ultimate 90% exhausted in 2011 Includes 48 + Alaska 31 Gb remaining USGS/MMS assessment 189 Gb • • EIA data from 1859 Fit for cumulative normal gives the ultimate production and the time for 90% exhaustion

Historical Projections for US Oil Mc. Kelvey Hubbert The power of Hubbert Linearization is that it uses past behavior of a system to indicate possible future performance rather than relying on the overoptimistic opinions of resource “experts” 13

Maximum Cumulative Production (Qt) Will Be 2165 Gigabarrels ½ Qt = 1083 Gb

Historical Fits for World Oil and Gas Ultimate Cumulative Production of Oil + Gas = 605 Gtoe Maximum cumulative through 2100 for an IPCC scenario 16 is 2, 600 Gtoe

Who are the experts that IPCC turn to? Energy Information Agency (EIA) - DOE International Energy Agency (IEA) – Paris US Geologocal Survet (USGS) - Washington Their models for future emissions are driven by demand (not supply). EIA, IEA and IPCC assume that supply will meet demand USGS assumes much oil yet to be found The EIA forecasts in 2008 projects a 30% increase in oil production between now and 2030 (from 85 to 97 mb/d) (D = +12 mbd). The hard truth is that increasing energy supply at all will be difficult. To have growth we need to balance decline of exisiting fields with discovery of new oil

Existing Oil Fields are in Decline Existing oil fields are declining at - 6. 7% per year (IEA 2008) For 2005 to 2030 the world needs 45 mbd of new production – just to maintain flat production The projected growth requires discovery of 45 + 12 = 57 mbd of new oil! 57 ÷ 9 = ~6+ new Saudi Arabias

Urban Legend – we can drill more to get more oil Oil discoveries have been declining since 1964 The red box shows the average amount estimated to be discovered by the USGS each year between 1995 and 2025. The world’s oil provinces have been well explored. Future discoveries will be limited to smaller structures and deeper formations

What about coal? There are supposed to be hundreds of years of supply of coal! Big 3 Reserves: US (27%) Remarkably the data-quality is very poor globally Russia (17%) but especially for China and SE Asia and FSU China (13%) then India, Australia, South Africa

We also have a big problem with coal. The Reserves may not be as large as We’ve been led to believe. "Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970 s. Only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually minable reserves. " from the National Academy of Sciences Report on Coal, June, 2007

UK Coal Production • Mt = millions of metric tons • The average price after the peak is 2. 4 times higher than before • Britain now imports 74% of the coal it burns 22

Rate Plot for British Coal 23

Projections vs Reserves for World Coal Region Projection Gt Reserves Gt Eastern US 37 96 Western US w/o Montana 33 79 Montana 68 Central and South America 16 China 88 South Asia 189 68 Australia and New Zealand 50 77 Former Soviet Union 36 226 Europe 21 44 Africa 16 30 435 (1. 6 Tboe) 903 World (at 3. 6 boe/t) • UN IPCC scenarios assume 18 Tboe is available for production from D. Rutledge

Where Does the IPCC Get Its Coal Numbers? World Energy Proved recoverable Additional recoverable Council survey reserves, Gt 1992 1, 039 702 1995 1, 032 680 1998 984 3, 368 2001 984 409 2004 909 449 2007 847 180 • The scenario report SRES (2000) references the 1995 and 1998 WEC surveys • Downward trend in proved recoverable reserves • The IPCC chose to use additional recoverable reserves and they also chose 1998 (3, 368 Gt) instead of 1995 (680 Gt) — additional recoverable reserves are now 19 times smaller than in 1998 25

Many independent groups are coming to the same conclusion Uppsala – Kjell Aleklett Peak Coal in 2030 (examples follow) http: //www. tsl. uu. se/uhdsg/Publications/Coalarticle. pdf Energy Watch Group (EWG-Germany) Peak Coal in 2025 http: //www. energywatchgroup. org/files/Coalreport. pdf Institute of Energy (IFE) Kavakov and Peteves (2007) The Future of Coal http: //ie. jrc. europa. eu/ Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute (book in progress) http: //www. richardheinberg. com/museletter/195

Historical fits for Oil, Gas, and Coal Ultimate Production Reserves BP for oil and gas WEC for coal Fits for ultimate Projection Half-Way 2019 Cumulative oil, gas, and coal Projection Cumulative coal Ultimate Production of oil + gas + coal = 938 Gtoe 27

Comparing with the IPCC Scenarios Projection • This projection has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios • This is still true even with full coal reserves

Carbon-Dioxide Levels 460 ppm 440 ppm Projection 50% Stretch-out for Fossil Fuel Burning • • Simulations with the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder This program was used in the earlier UN IPCC Assessment Reports The program modified to use Rutledge projection for fossil-fuel emissions profiles are business-as-usual for other greenhouse gases

Conclusions: 1) Supply Limitation will be serious Existing scenarios and energy policies are based on emissions - not supply We know enough to see that Resource Limitation needs to be an IPCC Scenario Peak Oil has occurred or will occur soon. Coal Reserves are significantly less than assumed by the IPCC. 2) Coal is thought of as a solution to energy needs – This will be a disaster for climate change without CO 2 sequestration. Is CO 2 sequestration realistic? 3) Energy will pass climate change as the hot button issue We have to get our energy plan in order before we can move forward on climate change 4) Energy Supply will Buffer Economic recovery Recessions correlate with price rise results in energy > 5. 7% of GDP See Jeff Rubin (2009) (formerly CIBC) 5) Security Issue: Seven nations control 75% of world’s oil exports. There will be shifts in global power and wealth

Energy as a buffer on economic growth James Hamilton (UCSD) – Recessions generally correlate with the price of oil. If energy expenditures rise faster than income, then the share of income for other things must decline Oil Expenditures as a % of GDP

Summary Table: IPCC SRES versus Rutledge All values given in Gigabarrels of Oil Equivalents (Gtoe) 1990 Identified Additional Cumulative Resources Recoveries Additional w/Technology IPCC Oil+Gas 120 + 612 = 732 262 (low) 679 (high) Coal 124 + 545 = 669 Rutledge Oil+Gas+Coal Oil + Gas Coal 690 1905 Additional Occurrences >20, 107 (with marine CH 4 hydrates) 3571 Ultimate Cumulative = 938 = 605 (from 938 – 666) Comparable to 732 from above = 333 Comparable to 669 above IPCC values in ZJ, converted to Gtoe using 42 GJ/toe and 0. 5 toe/t for coal ZJ = 1021 J For oil: 7. 33 barrels per metric ton

CO 2 emission Scenarios From Oil + Gas + Coal These Scenarios drive almost all climate change research

MAGICC Simulations for CO 2 and Temperature • Written by Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado • This program has been used in the IPCC assessments • Simulation parameters – IPCC “most likely value” temperature sensitivity: 3 C/2 CO 2 concentration (“likely” range is 2. 0 to 4. 5) – Aslam Khalil’s recent measurements for CH 4 equilibrium concentration: 1, 750 ppb – Tom Wigley’s P 50 values (IPCC scenario medians) for other greenhouse gases: deforestation CO 2 , N 2 O, NOx, VOCs, SO 2, C 2 F 6, HFCs, SF 6 – Our projection for CO 2 emissions from oil, gas, and coal burning. 36

Economists say – as price goes up, more oil will be produced Elasticity has become virtually zero. It’s a market where supply rules. from Kenneth Deffeyes

Coal Resources for the IPCC Scenarios (Tboe), from Nakicenovic IPCC Maximum scenario use to 2100 14 Proved Recoverable Reserves Additional Recoverable Reserves 1998 4. 0 13 4. 0 1. 4 2004 3. 7 1. 5 2007 • • 4. 0 2001 12 Recoverable with technological progress WEC 1. 3 (at 3. 6 boe/t) IPCC Reserves Identified 2000 Rutledge projection 3. 4 0. 7 IPCC scenario coal resources are based on WEC survey categories IPCC resources have not been adjusted for the new WEC surveys 38

Important Reading that will change your outlook Matt Simmons (2005) Twilight in the Desert James Kunstler (2005) The Long Emergency Jeff Rubin (2009) Why the World is About to get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and The End of Globalization Important web-site www. theoildrum. com

“We are all extraordinary skeptical of the "peak oil" stuff. We know of no reliable information that suggests that we're going to be running significantly short of any fossil fuel in this century…It certainly won't happen with any significant price on carbon. ” “We've done a few 300 -year scenarios that have some shortages in them, but even that may not be realistic. This is especially so with coal!” “The Chinese say they have enough coal for centuries…The idea that we're only going to reach 450 ppm is not defensible, especially when we're already around 385 ppm. Do we really think there is only another 60 years of fossil fuel left? I don't think so. ” PNNL Climate Modelers …but, see my figures!

Mad Max Excluded “The scenarios are intended to exclude catastrophic futures that involve large scale environmental or economic collapses. In such scenarios GHG emissions might be low because of negative economic growth, but it seems unlikely they would receive much attention in the light of more immediate problems. Hence, this report does not analyze such futures. ” IPCC

Nested Assumptions Energy scarcity is a myth Fossil Fuels are superabundant No reason to hoard or fight over them Globally traded from haves to have-nots Coal can be converted to anything Fuel will remain cheap for a century

What controls the price of oil? Supply versus Demand on International Market Backwardation – during price increase Contango – is not a place in Chile! Tanker Storage Possible Driver of a Future Price Crash See: www. gasbuddy. com