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Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe 29. 06. 2010 Associate Professor Dr. Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe 29. 06. 2010 Associate Professor Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University

Academic Menu What is Baltic? n Nordic Regional Identities n Baltics and Russia n Academic Menu What is Baltic? n Nordic Regional Identities n Baltics and Russia n Management of Change: Eastern Neighbourhood and Baltic Sea Strategy n

What is “Baltic”? n The location of the Baltic is in fact more a What is “Baltic”? n The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of awareness than of geography, but that awareness has to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to dog the states formerly under Soviet domination, whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile sense of regional community. There is much to be done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who study the region (Kirby 1999).

Post-Communist Transformation Quadruple transition: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Market Economy Democracy Nation and Post-Communist Transformation Quadruple transition: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Market Economy Democracy Nation and State building Transatlantic integration Different from Southern Europe

Why Europe and NATO? n n n n 1995 Association agreements with EU, 1997 Why Europe and NATO? n n n n 1995 Association agreements with EU, 1997 -99 start of negotiations, 2004 twin membership Come-back Home Security (hard and soft) and “El Dorado” Cooperation, Joint-decision making, Active foreign policy Europeanisation (Westernisation) as a two-way street: Customise Europe 2004 membership: benefits and shortcomings

Getting used in “paradise” n n Schengen – Yes European Neighbourgood – Yes Common Getting used in “paradise” n n Schengen – Yes European Neighbourgood – Yes Common Energy security – No EU-Russia relations – ?

Theoretical Guidance n n n Regions within and among states Meta-regions, Regions, Sub-regions, Trans-regions Theoretical Guidance n n n Regions within and among states Meta-regions, Regions, Sub-regions, Trans-regions Rationalist-Reflectivist divide Constructivism, Identity (US-Them) and Language Power “We will hunt them down, smoke them out and bring them to justice” Regions lie where politicians want them to lie

Regional trajectories in the Baltics n n Quantification of narratives 4 main regions: Baltic, Regional trajectories in the Baltics n n Quantification of narratives 4 main regions: Baltic, Northern, Baltic sea, Central (and Eastern) Europe Statements of key policy makers 2 environments for narratives

Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004 Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004

Self-affiliation to the region Lithuania Central (and Medium Eastern) Europe Baltic sea Medium→ Low Self-affiliation to the region Lithuania Central (and Medium Eastern) Europe Baltic sea Medium→ Low Norden High Baltic High Latvia Estonia Low Medium High→ Medium High

Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement Compatibility Common Denominator Modern/Postmo Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement Compatibility Common Denominator Modern/Postmo dern Central (and Eastern) Europe Medium→Low Soviet Past, Freedom, NATO/EU membership→ Soviet Past Modern Baltic sea High→Medium Soft Security Modern/ Postmodern Medium Political and economic Partnership Place in Northern Europe Modern High Soviet Past, Freedom, NATO/EU membership →Security Problems, Political Partnership, Baltic Tigers Modern Norden Baltic

Denmark n n n Baltic Sea region as a “dynamic region”, that has potentials Denmark n n n Baltic Sea region as a “dynamic region”, that has potentials and is growing The Baltic Sea as a uniting factor: cooperation, mostly in economic and energy issues Denmark as a “Northern European country” Baltic countries belong to Baltic Sea Region Security appears everywhere and in almost every meaning; most often: energy security, social security, economic security, homeland/military security in terms of terrorism and the fight against it (in Afghanistan, Iraq)

Finland n n n Social security is one of the central ingredients for Nordic Finland n n n Social security is one of the central ingredients for Nordic identity. Nordic as a certain model, attributing a certain system of the welfare state and for the state's involvement in public policy. Basic concepts of Region: The Nordic Region (Scandinavia also once called “The Nordic Sisters”), the Baltic Region, The Arctic Region (including North-West Russia) and the European Region (EU). Very frequently mentioned during 2006 is the establishing of the Northern Dimension, including Scandinavia and the Baltic States, within the EU. The European Union as region is especially mentioned outside Europe (cf. Latin America). Security for Finland appears as a very multi-dimensional and therefore not restricted to the term of military security. Also Security of Energy Supply, Social Security, Importance of a common European Security Policy.

Iceland n n n In 2008 “Nordic” refers to the “other Nordic countries” and Iceland n n n In 2008 “Nordic” refers to the “other Nordic countries” and the Nordic council; connected to economy issues, especially in the times of the economy crisis The Nordic countries as fellows, friends, community and our neighbours increasing Nordic cooperation and evoking something like a Nordic togetherness in times of economic need Nordic region as strong and leading region in the world (in economy, technology, …) No mentioning of Baltic/Baltic-Sea Security issues connected to the withdrawal of the US forces Security almost always as military security; no mentioning of a Nordic security, just NATO and the US are important in this context

Norway n n Nordic/Northern: partnership and cooperation is stressed; top in economic/welfare/health/technology issues Baltic Norway n n Nordic/Northern: partnership and cooperation is stressed; top in economic/welfare/health/technology issues Baltic States are not mentioned Baltic Sea region is not often mentioned, but used to refer to cooperation in energy/economic areas and to include Russia in this cooperation Security: hard security issues, (military/domestic/international) new challenges: terrorism and WMD; soft security issues energy, (economic/social)

Sweden n n The concept of region appears comparatively seldom. The focus is on Sweden n n The concept of region appears comparatively seldom. The focus is on the economic aspect of regional integration. The Baltic states are only mentioned in the biased environment, and he counts Poland also to the Baltic Region. Norden is rarely mentioned. Security is about Security of Energy. Military security plays no important role in the Swedish international statements.

Summing Up n n Nordic: Iceland: Starts to refer to the Nordic Partnership only Summing Up n n Nordic: Iceland: Starts to refer to the Nordic Partnership only in the recent crisis; Sweden: only refers only once to the Nordic Cooperation; Denmark: defines itself as part of the Nordic region, but does not emphasize this concept very frequently; Norway: very similar to Denmark, the Nordicity is emphasized more; Finland clearly defines itself as a Nordic country. Common denominator: Nordic is defined as a welfare system and a role of the state in public policy. Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different geographical region not; the Baltic states are not mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic Sea Region: The Baltic Sea region is especially important for Denmark, Sweden, Finland to a lesser degree Norway and Iceland, in terms of economic or trade routes, energy security and environmental issues. Baltic Sea Region as a region that should be strengthened. Finland Norway also put emphasis on the Arctic/Barents-Region which includes cooperation with Russia. Security: Security is not important for Nordic identity as in the Baltic case. For Norway, Iceland, Denmark NATO is the most important guarantor of security. For Finland it is the EU. Norway refers to cooperation with the EU security policy. Hard security issues especially important for Denmark and Iceland. Energy security important for all states and increasing.

Baltics and Norden Compared n n n Construction of political regions in terms of Baltics and Norden Compared n n n Construction of political regions in terms of discursive (quantitative and qualitative; in neutral and biased environments) confirmed dominant trilateral Baltic subregional identity in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which revolved around sovereignty, security and its derivative, Transatlantic integration vs. Russia. In the Nordic case security is not the binding case and there is a drive towards the Baltic sea region. The trajectories of constructing regional identities in the Norden and the Baltics cross each other meet only not in Baltiscandia but in the Baltic sea area which is downplayed to low politics in the Baltics.

Nordic-Baltic Chemistry n n n n n Change of Nordic balance after the Cold Nordic-Baltic Chemistry n n n n n Change of Nordic balance after the Cold War Norms entrepreneurs and adjacent internationalism Gravity towards the Baltics First to recognise and open embassies Nordic values of democracy, stability and cooperation Assistance in democracy and civil society Significant Nordic FDI in the Baltics in the Nordic Investment Bank Close political cooperation – NB 8 (NB 6)

The Baltic states and Russia The Baltic states and Russia

The Baltic states and Russia n n n n Carl Bildt 1994: Litmus test The Baltic states and Russia n n n n Carl Bildt 1994: Litmus test idea Lukewarm Russian and Baltic relations Identity is the key: The role of Us/Them Baltic return to Europe and distancing from Russia in search for national identity after 1991 Russia as successor of the Soviet Union and Russian empire Hostages of history?

Unfriendly countries to Russia, 2005 -2009, % 2006 May 2007 August 2009 May 38 Unfriendly countries to Russia, 2005 -2009, % 2006 May 2007 August 2009 May 38 44 46 62 23 37 35 45 13 27 23 41 49 46 36 35 42 42 32 35 32 28 60 30 2005 May Georgia US Ukraine Latvia Lithuania Estonia

Russia and BSR n n n Russia is essential for the region Russia does Russia and BSR n n n Russia is essential for the region Russia does not focus on BSR cooperation Desecuritisation is not a Fact National identity in Russia focus on the USSR Clash of identities and principles in the BSR

Concerns about Russia n n n Breaking Georgian Territorial Integrity Control of Media Violation Concerns about Russia n n n Breaking Georgian Territorial Integrity Control of Media Violation of Human Rights Increasing Racism Crimes in Chechnya Political Destruction of YUKOS Company Notorious and unresolved murders Information, Cyber Attacks and Revision of History Manipulation with Energy Resources Embargos for Lithuania, Poland, Georgia, Moldova, Czech Republic Conflicts with Georgia, Estonia and UK

Eastern European Funk n n The Change of the Term ‘Eastern Europe’ We ‘were’ Eastern European Funk n n The Change of the Term ‘Eastern Europe’ We ‘were’ Eastern European… New ‘Eastern Europe’ We-Neighbours-They

Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy n n n Winder Europe - 2003 Start in Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy n n n Winder Europe - 2003 Start in 2004 - objective of avoiding the emergence of new dividing lines strengthening the prosperity, stability and security mutual commitment to common values (democracy and human rights, rule of law, good governance, market economy principles and sustainable development) deeper political relationship and economic integration

Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy n The European Neighbourhood Policy applies to the EU's Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy n The European Neighbourhood Policy applies to the EU's immediate neighbours by land or sea – Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine. Although Russia is also a neighbour of the EU, our relations are instead developed through a Strategic Partnership covering four “common spaces”.

Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy n n bilateral ENP Action Plans agreed between the Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy n n bilateral ENP Action Plans agreed between the EU and each partner. The ENP was not activated for Belarus.

Eastern Partnership n n Change – Swedish and Polish (Czech and Lithuanian) initiative Aims Eastern Partnership n n Change – Swedish and Polish (Czech and Lithuanian) initiative Aims - extend the area of security and prosperity, and ensure economic and energy security Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine Different countries, different approaches

Eastern Partnership n n n Essence – Faster reforms, customisation, integration to economies, better Eastern Partnership n n n Essence – Faster reforms, customisation, integration to economies, better travel, energy security – move closer to the EU Reward for progress 600 million Euros Not everyone wants the EU Free-trade and visa free travel for the beginning

Challenges for the Eastern Partnership n n Russia Southern Dimension Scanty Resources EU unwillingness Challenges for the Eastern Partnership n n Russia Southern Dimension Scanty Resources EU unwillingness – Enlargement fatigue

Baltic Role n n n Values and interests Small states, soft power and norms Baltic Role n n n Values and interests Small states, soft power and norms (Nordic? ) Baltic experiences and knowledge Where else to go? What is it we want? The aim is to create a ring of friends and bring those countries closed to the West via dialogue

Emergence of the BSR n n n n No BSR during Cold War Role Emergence of the BSR n n n n No BSR during Cold War Role of CBSS From Hard to Soft Security Realist, Pluralist and Asecurity Approaches to BSR Uploading the EU: Northern Dimension

Baltic Sea Strategy Problems: • severe ecological danger • uneven economic development • insufficient Baltic Sea Strategy Problems: • severe ecological danger • uneven economic development • insufficient energy transmission and supply networks, gaps in transport links • shortcomings in maritime safety and security n n n 8 of the 9 countries bordering the Baltic Sea are EU members Many of the challenges are in EU policy fields Strong need for coordination of numerous stakeholders and countries involved The EU is an independent player with respected authority The EU already runs regional development programmes in the region providing many opportunities for cooperation In Dec 2007, the Member States asked the Commission to prepare the strategy

BSR: Fields of Action n n Environment: to improve the environmental state of the BSR: Fields of Action n n Environment: to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea Region, the largest brackish water system in the world Economy: to make the Baltic Sea Region more prosperous by supporting balanced economic development Energy and transport: to make the region more accessible and attractive, for its inhabitants, for its labour force and for tourists Safety and Security: to make the region safer and more secure

EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region n n n BSS focuses on soft EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region n n n BSS focuses on soft security No more funding, institutions or legislation Positive aspects: highest political attention in the EU, Need for dialogue with Russia after 8/8/8 and inclusion of Belarus Old stories: BSS like CBSS focuses on low politics, similarity to ND BSS merges the soft security approach of the CBSS and the openness and inclusions of the ND liberal approach with the stress on cooperation in low politics and postmodern daydreaming about a wider security community of tomorrow in BSR (EU’s logic)

BSS Challenges n n n No BSR identity yet Real Issues (Mistral, Nord Stream, BSS Challenges n n n No BSR identity yet Real Issues (Mistral, Nord Stream, Human Rights) are not discussed Economic crisis and resource drain Bilateralism, small vs Large states Tensions with Southern Dimension and Mediterranean Modern and postmodern cleavage Russia’s preference on ND than BSS Competitive synergy: overlapping agendas and absence of division of cooperative functions Supremacy of the ND over the CBSS ND as external dimension is preferred to CBSS in the BSS CBSS with modern problematique, ND - postmodern

Suggestions n n n Look for success stories Use CBSS as “coalition of the Suggestions n n n Look for success stories Use CBSS as “coalition of the willing” Synergise external dimension of the EU in the CBSS: Eastern Partnership, ND and BSS

Europe and its Challenges n n n EU enlargement – success story: peace, stability, Europe and its Challenges n n n EU enlargement – success story: peace, stability, derivative of values Continuity of Enlargement. Copenhagen criteria EU-Russia and post-PCA: Reciprocity Common Energy Policy: Mission Impossible? (Nord Stream, Druzhba) Evaluation of Totalitarian Regimes Climate Change: Renewables and Renaissance of nuclear European Neighbourhood as Ring of Friends EU as a transforming power: free trade agreements, economic integration, sectoral agreements in energy, transport, migration, etc, promote people-to people contacts Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, South Caucasus Kosovo, Kaliningrad region Guidelines: Strong Institutions, Solidarity, Good Practice

Associated Professor Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas Associated Professor Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas