Panel Regarding Sea-Level Rise Public Policy Forum March 10, 2010 Donald F. Boesch
Sea-Level Rise Panel Don Boesch – Univ. Maryland Center for Environmental Science Craig Fulthorpe – University of Texas Institute for Geophysics Tim Mc. Gee – RADM US Navy (retired) Dave Jansen– House Natural Resources Committee Staff MVN RSM Program
Gauges Measure Relative Sea-Level Measured by tide gauges MVN RSM Program
Sea level (m) relative to 2000 Relative Sea-Level Trends 0. 6 0. 4 Sitka, AK -2. 1 Los Angeles 0. 8 Pensacola 2. 1 San Fran. 2. 0 0. 2 0 -0. 2 -0. 4 -0. 6 Global ocean mean 0. 18 Charleston 3. 2 Galveston 6. 4 Baltimore 3. 1 Grand Isle, LA 9. 2 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sea level rise rates over the periods of record indicated in mm/yr MVN RSM Program http: //tidesandcurrents. noaa. gov/sltrends. shtml
Post 19 th Century Sea-Level Rise 3. 2 +/- 0. 4 mm/yr (1993 -present) Church et al. 2008 MVN RSM Program
Global Sea-Level Rise Satellite altimeter MVN RSM Program http: //sealevel. colorado. edu/
Sea-Level Rise Is Not Uniform MVN RSM Program
Cumulative mean annual mass balance Accelerated Loss of Land Ice Continental Glaciers GRACE gravity field measurements reference glaciers all glaciers 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 MVN RSM Program Velicogna 2009
Closing the SLR Budget Murphy et al. 2009 ARGO Cazenave & Llovel 2010 JASON-2 GRACE MVN RSM Program
Semi-Empirical Projection of SLR Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009) method 2 mm n @ 3. o cti proje Linear /yr IPCC (2007) projections MVN RSM Program
New Findings Since IPCC AR 4 Altimeter trends (>3 mm/yr) vary with climate but continue. Contribution of polar ice sheets and glaciers is increasing. Regional variability due to non-uniform thermal expansion. Kinematic constraints on polar glaciers likely constrain SLR to 2 m during this century, more likely around 0. 8 m. Submarine melting important in ice sheet mass loss. Empirical models based on temperature projections suggest 20 th century SLR at least twice that of IPCC. 6 m or more of SLR over several centuries likely to be locked in as a result of 21 st century warming. MVN RSM Program
Vulnerable Coastal Landscapes NJ MD North Carolina DE DC VA MVN RSM Program
Some Critical Needs Sustained ocean observing system, particularly in areas influencing ice sheets. Models capable of reliable projections of land-ice melting and thermal expansion. Coastal system models capable of projecting inundation, tidal exchange, storm surge, estuarine ecosystem dynamics, and wetlandform responses. Socioeconomic decision-making tools to inform adaptation decisions. MVN RSM Program
“Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. ” Richard Feynman • boesch@umces. edu • www. umces. edu/president/
Скачать презентацию Panel Regarding Sea-Level Rise Public Policy Forum March
855872c33a94a277788069b68d630683.ppt