Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections The future The Goal: To increase awareness about the organisation, its environment and the future. Strategic options Scenarios (Exploring our future possibilities) (Imagining the future) The organisation Increasing awareness Co-evolution The business ecosystem (Discovering our place & relationships) Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Tools for Difference Future v A Clear- enough v Alternative future Future v A Single forecast precise v Few discreet outcome that enough to define future determine strategy v Traditional strategy toolkit v Decision Analysis v Game theory v A range of Future v True Ambiguity v Range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenario v No basis to forecast the future v Technology forecasting v Scenario Planning v Analogies and Pattern recognition Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections A Business Ecosystem The environment Governments Standards bodies New entrants Competitors Supplier’s suppliers Suppliers Organisation Customers Customer’s customers Substitutes Stakeholders International law Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

A way of viewing the world v A scenario is a sequence of events v Businesses and computer systems can be viewed as sequences of events / activities v Sequences interact v Life is complicated, but you need a way of finding your way through Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Who would have imagined 5 years ago that: v 9/11 10 years from now it is possible that: v Asean +3 v Thaksin Carbinet v Asia Financial. Crisis v Electric cars v SARS v? E v First Thai female prime minister v? v? v Moon Base Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Prediction is difficult…. even for experts “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty. ” President of Michigan Savings Banks, 1903 (advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Company) “Automobiles will start to decline as soon as the last show is fired in World War 22. Instead of a car in every garage, there will be a helicopter. ” Aviation publicist, Harry Bruno, 1943 “I think there is a world market for above five computers” IBM Chairman, Thomas Watson, 1943 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home” Digital Equipment President, Ken Olsen, 1977 Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

The right question…. . “The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed in shifting the question from whether something will happen to what would we do if it did happen” Arie de Geus Former Head of Group Planning, Shell International Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

What is a scenario? An interpretation of the present and an archetypal image of the future and an internally consistent story about the path from the present to the future Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Scenarios can be used …. . v To aid in the recognition of ‘weak signals’ of change v To avoid being caught off guard - “live the future in advance” v As a language for discussion - and to challenge ‘mental maps’ v To understand the world better - and make better decisions v To test strategies for robustness - with “what E if” questions Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Scenario Analysis v Breaks complex systems into simple components v Provides structure to the analysis v Is used as the basis of further analysis and design in the development of activity diagrams and sequence diagrams Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Companies use scenarios to…. . v Sensitise managers to the outside world v Provide valuable insights v Deal with uncertainty v Challenge mental maps v Provide internal ‘language’ Develop better strategies Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Typical Approaches to Scenario Development Discussion and debate with or without source data System Change evaluation of every parameter under different conditions (e. g. treasury model) Driving Force identification and assessment of the fundamental influencing factors Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Developing Scenarios Using Driving Forces Political Gather Data Economic Technological & Scientific Social & Demographic Environmental Commercial & Business Identify Driving Forces Build Scenarios Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Scenario development in practice The three Ps v Define the nature of the scenario Product v Identify the key Participants v Follow a clearly defined Process Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Brainstorming and “Clustering” Session Key issues and potential policy areas II Oil storage Energy policy water / land not devolved pollution “Risk” Partnerships Disbenefits of EU Legislation Integrated Policy Legislation EU Sustainable Legislation Development level playing Legislation? field or Env. Impact Media Customers are prepared to pay £/t. C “Win / Win” ò “Lose / Win” Buy-in Employees Customers will not accept retrograde steps Customer demands lower cost Economics Spin off economic development Demographic Changes Environment Presentation truly becomes V “political” Substance issue Point of use Environment Becomes Competative issue Short-termism Misguided / Informed ? Stakeholder Pressure Politics / People Poor Housing Stock Concentration Indifference of Regulation Rate of Response Expectation Business V Public Government must Coerce? Open Public Perceptions Discussion Communications transparency Planning Issues may affect rollout of new E-opportunities Pressure Groups Demand Growth Customer Competition / Aspirations Public Service Increasing (Water) Political Imperative 2010 + ? Long Term Planning Do we know baseline? Customer Choice Talk is it a Value or Waste SME Inertia / Awareness Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Priority issues in environment over the next 25 years high Uncertaint y low E low Relative Importance high Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Priority issues in environment over the next 25 years high Surprises Partnerships Structure s Long term Planning Uncertaint y Pressure Groups Resources Public Awareness Media Economics Politics/ People Legislation EActivity Waste Technolog y Behaviour Environ mental Impact low Relative Importance high Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Strategic options “Our future possibilities” v Key strategic issues Ø What are the real areas which affect our business? Ø (E. g. service, channel, market) v Formulate key decision areas Ø Where do decisions need to be made? v Create clusters of options Ø Discover coherent strategies Ø Check against distinctive competencies Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

The Organisation Strategic option generation: one approach Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Competence Existing MARKETS Overview SERVICES PROTECT/BUILD • Withdrawal • Consolidation • Market penetration New SERVICE DEVELOPMENT • Existing competencies • New competencies MARKET DEVELOPMENT New • New segments • New territories • New uses DIVERSIFICATION • Existing competencies • New competencies Development Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Scenarios “Imagining the future” v Identify key driving forces v Choose most uncertain/most significant v Develop alternatives v ‘Flesh out’ with narrative Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview Note which key external drivers are both important & uncertain The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Identify key driving forces Driver 2 High Driver 1 Driver 5 Importance Driver 3 Driver 4 Low Uncertainty Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com High

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Formulate ‘yes-no’ questions Driver 2 Yes No Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Yes Driver 5 No Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

The IS Matrix CONTROL 3. Options 4. Decisions UNCERTAINTY 2 a. Key Uncertainties CERTAINTY 1. Rules of the Game 2 b. Scenarios ABSENCE OF CONTROL Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Scenarios for the US CONTROL 3. Options 4. Decisions Constructive engagement ‘Homeland Security’ Isolation Steel tariffs Agricultural subsidies UNCERTAINTY 2 a. Key Uncertainties 1. Rules of the Game Nuclear terrorism Disintegration of world order 2 b. Scenarios ‘Friendly Planet’ ‘Gilded Cage’ Demographics Globalisation Global Climate Change Potential for epidemics New technological wave We live in one world Nature of warfare has changed ABSENCE OF CONTROL Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Develop future time line for each scenario 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 v Map out critical events leading to the unfolding of this scenario enabling you to: Ø Scan for triggers which will alert you to the scenario Ø Rehearse your strategic responses to the events of the scenario Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation The Future The Process Reflections Cross-impact matrix Test each option against each scenario. SWOT analysis is one useful tool; Business Ecosystem Scenario 1 de Bono’s Option 2 Plus/Minus/ Interesting is also good. Add learning points and Option 3 actions required. S W O Option 1 T S W O T Scenario 2 P M I Scenario 4 S W O T S W O Learning T Actions Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Are scenarios the answer? v Do scenarios help? ØShell used them effectively ØIBM & General Motors did not v Why not? ØDiversity v. Is there enough diversity in planning process? ØCulture v. Is the culture open to new thinking & doing? Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Strategic intent v Strategic intent must inform all of organisational life v Strategic intent must take account of the realities of the organisation and its environment v Strategic intent is more important than ‘strategy’ Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com

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J. C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon, 'The Millennium Project : Issues and Opportunities for the Future', Technological forecasting and social change: An International Journal, North-Holland, New York, vol. 61, no. 2, June 1999, pp. 97 -208. v sustainable development for land, water and oceans through energy efficiency actions v long-term perspective planning at personal, corporate and political levels v population growth rate checked through female rights and education programs v peace paradigm for coexistence extending economic cooperation across regions v science for appropriate-technology in genetics, biotechnology & information systems v global ethics and thinking assisted by literacy, education and medical support v democratic institutions, reconciliation, freedom, equity and self-determination v non-violent conflict resolution with United Nations reform and global cooperation v ecologically based agriculture predicated on alternative progress indicators, and v global philosophies, value systems and thought towards environmental security. Industry Analysis XMBA wai. chamornmarn@gmail. com