Outlook for Advertising Expenditure: Global Perspective and Internet growth vs other media Nick Hiddleston Worldwide Research Director Zenith. Optimedia Group 24 May 2006
Contents • Introduction to Zenith. Optimedia and the company’s research • Research methodology • Market situation for advertising expenditure • Details of USA ad expenditure market • Internet versus other media evolution • Forecast for the next three years • Summary
Introduction • Zed digital is the digital company of Zenith. Optimedia Group. We provide our clients with interactive marketing services, display advertising and performance marketing, such as: search engine marketing, affiliation, e-mailing, mobile. • Zenith. Optimedia is one of the world’s leading global media services agency, with 170 offices in 60 countries that plan and buy campaigns. • Our positioning is The ROI Agency, focusing our propositions on the tracking for all marketing actions. • Zenith. Optimedia is a media agency rather than a research company. The company is focused on research as a fundamental value for its clients. • For many years Zenith. Optimedia has published regular studies into Advertising Expenditure Forecasts
Research methodology • The offices provide historical ad expenditure figures from the most reliable source or sources in their countries. • The offices provide their forecast for the next three years of growth. It is not a modelled forecast, but is made by experts based on local market conditions, their clients’ and their competitors’ ad expenditure. • The figures are as net as possible. Discounts, agency commissions and production costs are excluded, with the exception of some countries that are gross figures. • Figures are quote in current prices are nominal figures. All data are converted into US dollars at an average annual exchange rate.
Stable growing world economy Gross Domestic Product: year-on-year % change in constant prices Source: Various
Global adspend and GDP growth Year-on-year % change, current prices Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Adspend by medium (1995 -2008) US$ million, current prices Internet Outdoor Radio Television Magazines Newspapers Source: Zenith. Optimedia
USA Adspend by medium (1995 -2008) US$ million, current prices Internet Outdoor Radio Television Magazines Newspapers Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Growth in adspend by medium % change 2008 v 2004, current prices Source: Zenith. Optimedia
USA Growth in adspend by medium % change 2008 v 2004, current prices Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Market share by medium 2004 Source: Zenith. Optimedia 2008
USA Market share by medium 2004 Source: Zenith. Optimedia 2008
Global online advertising (2005 -2009) * US$ million, current prices * financial year to June Source: MSN International/Zenith. Optimedia
US new media marketing (2005 -2009) US$ million, current prices Source: e. Marketer, Inc
Fastest-growing adspend markets % change 2008 v 2005, current prices Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Biggest contributors to adspend growth 2008 v 2005, US$ million, current prices Source: Zenith. Optimedia
USA: adspend forecasts (1) (at current prices) % Source: Zenith. Optimedia
USA: adspend forecasts (2) (at current prices) % Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Internet vs other media • North America was the most internet-developed region in terms of ad expenditure in 2004: - North America 5. 4% $8, 968 Million - Europe 2. 4% $2, 507 Million - Asia Pacific 3. 1% $2, 408 Million • The Top 5 countries for internet ad spend in 2004 were: - Sweden 7. 7% $171 Million - US 5. 4% $8, 688 Million - UK 5. 2% $1, 072 Million - Denmark 4. 9% $96 Million - Japan 4. 2% $1, 677 Million Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Internet vs other media • Central European countries were not at the front of internet ad spend in 2004 - Netherlands 1. 8% $82 Million - France 1. 8% $222 Million - Germany 1. 7% $337 Million - Spain 1. 5% $117 Million - Italy 1. 3% $138 Million • New emerging countries on Internet ad expenditure in 2004 are: - Israel 3. 9% $30 Million - Taiwan 3. 4 % $59 Million - Latvia 3. 4% $. , 7 Million - Estonia 2. 9% $2 Million - Brazil 1. 7% $77 Million Source: Zenith. Optimedia
Evolution of the most important markets Brazil has to accelerate its online investment UK USA Source: Zenith. Optimedia Sweden South Korea Australia Canada Japan Denmark Israel Taiwan
Summary • Traditional ad expenditure continues tracking or exceeding world economy. Global ad expenditure grew 4. 8% in 2005 vs 2004 and will grow 5. 9% in 2006, 5. 7% in 2007 and 6. 0% in 2008 • Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and China represent about 8% of global advertising but supply 30% of the growth in 2005 and 33% of growth to 2008 • Digital television and DVRs threaten to undermine the free TV model in the developed world
Internet Summary • The internet ad market is $18 bn now (total 2005), and search advertising will help it reach $30 bn in 2008 • Internet will take 4. 6% of advertising spend in 2005 rising to 6. 4% forecast in 2008 • From 2005 to 2008 internet will create US$ 16 billion, 17% of the total ad growth over this four year period • Sweden is the leader, the internet already accounts 8% and is forecast to rise to 12% • In 2009 Global online advertising will see a 60% increase from 2005 and will have doubled since 2004
Thank-you for your attention Nick Hiddleston Worldwide Research Director Nick. hiddleston@zenithoptimedia. com
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