Organization tool and or project logos COMPOEX COnflict Modeling

Organization, tool and/or project logos COMPOEX (COnflict Modeling, Planning, and Outcomes EXperimentation) BAE Systems Dr. Craig Lawrence craig. t. lawrence@baesystems. com URL for more detail This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review. © 2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the Open. VCE. net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.

COMPOEX Tools and Workflow ONA SIPR NATO OSC 1 4. Commanders and Interagency planners explore the models to understand the dynamics and develop Courses of Action (typically 5 -10 lines of effort with over a hundred discrete actions) to achieve specified effects (typically 50 -100 effects). COMPOEX Conflict Space Modeling Tool 2. … to help construct models of the power struggle, economy, infrastructure and information environments 2 Over 40 Generic Models of PMESII Systems 4 Campaign Planning Tool Plans 1. Sources (ONA database, SIPRNet, Open Source Center, MIDB, others) are searched to extract and organize PMESII information… Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc. 13 th International Command Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17 -19, 2008. Effects Option Exploration Tool Generic PMESII Model Library 3. Conceptual models are translated to a multi-resolution (typically 3 -4 levels for a country system) computational simulation tailored from a Generic Model Library A typical 3 -level simulation has over 2500 dynamic casual relationships changing on one-week time steps for a 6 -12 month simulation period. Lines of Effort DIME Actions 5. Results of simulations are presented as effects (typically 2001000 effects in a 6 -month period) across the PMESII spectrum of over 1500 variables – showing interactions among the systems and traceable causal paths. 5

COMPOEX Tool: Campaign Planning Tool BAE Systems Dr. Craig Lawrence craig. t. lawrence@baesystems. com URL for more detail This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review. © 2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the Open. VCE. net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.

Campaign Planning Tool • Enables modular development of multiple lines of effort • Automatically detects and displays interdependencies, assumptions, resources, actions, duration of effects, metrics and next state • Ability to modify plans, actions, interdependencies, models and next states based on measured performance Displays an operational campaign plan utilizing all elements of power Source: Kott, Alexander and Corpac, Peter, Technology To Assist Leaders in Planning And Executing Campaigns In Complex Operational Environments Conflict Modeling, Planning and Outcomes Experimentation Program (COMPOEX), in Proc. of 12 th International Command Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, 19 June 2007.

COMPOEX Tool: Option Exploration Simulation Tool BAE Systems Dr. Craig Lawrence craig. t. lawrence@baesystems. com URL for more detail This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review. © 2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the Open. VCE. net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.

Option Exploration Simulation Tool CAMPAIGN PLANNING TOOL OPTION EXPLORATION SIMULATION Implementing actions distributed to models Political-Social Power Structure Model • • Entry timescheduled actions; identify action dependencies • Organize actions by Lines of Effort (LOE) • Specify the attributes of each specific action, the target of action and the initiator of the action Plan Service • Each output variable is compared to a reference baseline PMESII State Vector (Backplane) Economic Models Infrastructure Models Information Models Rule of Law, Security Models Visualization Services Implementing actions distributed to models Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc. 13 th International Command Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17 -19, 2008. • PMESII dynamics graphs in custom user-created views; automated detection of effects across all variables

COMPOEX Tool: Model Library BAE Systems Dr. Craig Lawrence craig. t. lawrence@baesystems. com URL for more detail This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review. © 2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the Open. VCE. net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.

Model Library Catalog, organized by the PMESII domains, containing pre-built models at different levels of granularity for integration within composed models Model Library Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc. 13 th International Command Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17 -19, 2008.

COMPOEX Modeling Tools BAE Systems Dr. Craig Lawrence craig. t. lawrence@baesystems. com URL for more detail This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review. © 2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the Open. VCE. net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.

Model-Building Tools COMPOEX allows the composition of the major categories of simulation models) that represent: • Non-physical human systems (political and social domains, and the structure of power and competitions for power) • Physical systems (including economic systems of productionconsumption, infrastructure, information flows, etc. ). Sandbox: Conceptual Modelbuilding • Netica™ Bayes Net Model-building Typical model-building tools include those to the right PSTK: Power Struggle agent model-building Vensim™: System Dynamics Model. Building Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc. 13 th International Command Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17 -19, 2008.