ORF 401 — Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 en

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ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 en. Route. Commerce Beyond LBS (Location-Based Services) By Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Co. Director, NJ Center for Transportation Information & Decision Engineering Princeton University April 12, 2006 Orf 401 April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 all-in-one Sat/Nav solution April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Harvesting Truck Data • “hourly” location reportings for – – 249, 467 “trucks” 13 -day period: August 29 – September 10, 2002 (also 2003, 2004 & 2005) 100 million (average 376 per truck): Spatial resolution ~ 400 m / 3 -sigma ID Latitude Longitude GMT 1 75. 43. 12 w 456289 1 42. 39. 37 n 75. 44. 43 w 459743 … … 249, 467 April 12, 2006 42. 34. 57 n 47. 29. 43 n 94. 27. 43 w 461674 Week 10

1 st view of 300, 000 trucks over 13 days ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

Path for one Week for Truck # 751 out of 27, 417 ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Data Processing Objectives • Display Latitude • Individual trucks over time • All trucks with geographic commonality Longitude View Time B Latitude A TADS April 12, 2006 Week 10 Longitude

Instantaneous location of the 27, 417 trucks that were moving ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

Median Speed (by direction) on National Highway Network ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 4: 10 pm April 12, 2006 > 40 mph < 40 mph April 12, 2006 Week 10 height ~ speed 4: 10 pm April 12, 2006

Median Speed (by direction) on National Highway Network ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 4: 10 pm April 12, 2006 > 40 mph < 40 mph height ~ speed 4: 10 pm April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Co. Pilot Data • “ 3 -sec” position, velocity reportings – “haphazardly” since May 1, 2000 – About 100 million, growing at greater than 1 M/wk – Spatial resolution ~ 20 m / 3 -sigma ID korn 061202 April 12, 2006 Latitude 42. 39. 374 n Longitude Speed 75. 44. 436 w Week 10 65. 3 Heading 134 Date 06/12/02 GMT 041645

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Finally… Convergence of en Wireless & Ro ut & Processing e. C Decisions that Improve Quality of Life GPS om & Memory me rc & & Robust OS Mobile Information April 12, 2006 Week 10 e

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Opportunities to Improve Quality of Life Market Segments Quality of Life • “ 17” year olds • Soccer Moms • Those that have never wanted to go anywhere • Dads who never ask for directions • Anxiety Relief • Feel Good • Safety, Security, Comfort • Better Feed the Family • Solid Quantifiable ROI • Mobile Professionals April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 In November ‘ 04 1 st to Launch Windows Mobile Smart. Phone version of Sat/Nav in Europe AND North America Live Demo April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Live Communications – Integrated Fleet Management • Track driver location in real-time – Via Internet at live. alk. eu. com – On the Co. Pilot Live Desktop – Driver can e-mail tracking invitations • Send two-way messages to the driver – Simple, timed-out responses for safety – Safe interface, integrated into Co. Pilot Live system • Send new locations to the driver – Send destinations from center, office or home directly to Co. Pilot|Live TCP/IP GPRSenabled device running Co. Pilot Live April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Outline: • Towards Stochastic Route Guidance – Congestion forecasting April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 1 2 6 1 8 3 2 4 9 2 5 3 3 6 5 8 6 3 1 6 1 • PROBLEM: How to get from A to B • Many Paths, Each with a Different Value to the Decision Maker • Choose path with Most Value (Least Cost) April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Historical Expectation: Concepts • Patterns Differ over Days & Time of Day • Most Significant Difference is Between Weekdays and Weekends Zoo Interchange – Hale Interchange (All Days) April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Good Hope - Zoo April 12, 2006 Zoo - Hale Week 10 Downtown – Moorland Burleigh - Zoo

Historical Expectation: Solution ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Travel Time (In Seconds) Seconds from Midnight Downtown Interchange to Zoo Interchange – All weekdays during the month of June April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Using Real-Time Information to Improve our Estimate April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Including Real-Time Information: Concepts Real-Time Information “Since a desirable route needs to be given when the driver asks for, it the computation of such a route but requires travel times which occur later, we need to be able to forecast such travel times. ” DEFINITION: A real-time travel time is a data point that can be received or constructed and measures the time it takes to traverse a specific route from one location to another location ending now. April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Including Real-Time Information: Concepts Peak Hour Characteristics & Return to Normalcy Burleigh - Zoo Moorland Downtown During Peak Hours, Traffic Patterns Remain at a relatively constant distance to Historical Estimate There will be a time at which traffic patterns will return to free flow conditions April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Including Real-Time Information: Concepts Exponential Smoothing • Method of “smoothing” a time series of observations • Most recent observations are given a high weight and previous observations are given lower weights that decrease exponentially with the age of the observation Single Double Triple April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Including Real-Time Information: Solution • During Peak Periods: • Adaptation of Double Exponential Smoothing • Trend is the Trend of the Historical Estimate • Observation weighted with Most Recent Estimate + Slope for Smoothed Estimate • Forecast done by adding trend to most recent estimate April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Including Real-Time Information: Solution • During Non-Peak Periods • Adaptation of Double Exponential Smoothing • Trend is decay to free flow Conditions April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 (a) (b) (c) Figure: Empirical testing of forecasting algorithm. (a) Forecast from most recent observation. (b) Weighting on most recent observations. (c) 10 April 12, 2006 Week Realization of travel time data.

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Real-Time Dynamic Minimum ETA Sat/Nav “Advance” project The late 90 s & Illinois Universities Transportation Research Consortium Conducted its version of the abandoned “ADVANCE” (Advanced Driver and Vehicle Advisory Navigation Conc. Ept )project • 250 Volunteers using Co. Pilot|Live commuting to/from RPI • Co. Pilot continuously shares real-time probe-based traffic data • Co. Pilot continuously seeks a minimum ETA route Link April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Project Objectives • Create: real-time data collection from vehicles and dissemination to vehicles of congestion avoidance information which is used to automatically reroute drivers onto the fastest paths to their destinations • Target locations: small to medium-sized urban areas • Aspects: operations, observability, controllability, users, information transfer to travelers April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Experiment Details 3 -month field test Capital District (Albany), NY, USA Journey-to-work 200 participants 80 Tech Park employees 120 HVCC staff & students “Techy” travelers Network: Freeways & signalized arterials Congested links Path choices exist April 12, 2006 Week 10

Basic Operational Architecture ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Two-way cellular data communications between Customized Live|Server at ALK Customized Co. Pilot|Live In vehicles 6 1 April 12, 2006 2, 4 3 5 Week 10 7 8 Destinati on

The In-Vehicle “Device” ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Co. Pilot GPS unit: Determines location Sprint PCS Vision card and battery pack: Communication with the server April 12, 2006 Pocket PC with 256 MB SD card: Software platform and audio communication with the driver Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Other April 12, 2006 Sat/Nav Platforms Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Every Second Co. Pilot|Live Determines “Where am I”, Then… If Momument, mj , is passed Send mi , mj , ttk(mi, mj )= t(mi) - t(mi) (52 bytes) Co. Pilot|Live Set i=j Updates: TT(mi, mj ) “Where Am I”, Then… April 12, 2006 ALK Server Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Every “n” Minutes Co. Pilot|Live … Send… Current Location & Destination, Last update time (42 bytes) ALK Server … Determines Uk : set of TT(mi, mj ) within “bounding polygon” of (Location; Destination)k that have changed more than “y%” since last update. ALK Server … Send… New TT(mi, mj ) for every (i, j) in Uk Co. Pilot|Live Sends: “Where am I”, Dest. , Last update Receives/Posts: updates Computes: Min. ETA Updates route, if better April 12, 2006 (280 bytes/100 arcs) Co. Pilot|Live … Updates TT(mi, mj ) in Uk , ETA on current route, Finds new Min. ETA route, if Min. ETA “substantially” better then… Adopt new route Week 10 ALK Server Builds: set Uk Sends: TT(mi, mj ) for every (i, j) in Uk

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 When Available ALK Server … Receives: Other congestion information from various source, blends them in TT(mi, mj ) ALK Server Updates: TT(mi, mj ) April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 What We Heard I'm very impressed with the Co. Pilot program thus far. The directions are accurate and it adapts quickly to route changes. I find it interesting how willing I am to listen to a machine tell me which route to take I like using it for when I have no idea on how to get somewhere, and it is good for my normal route because it keeps me out of traffic on route 4. This thing is awesome. I was a little skeptical at first but once i got the hang of it I don’t know how I went along without it. I think any student commuting to school will benefit from this. It is great, it took a while to trust it telling me where to go, but i like it because i cant get lost! Thanks. April 12, 2006 Week 10

also Can Watch Vehicles ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 1 2 April 12, 2006 Week 10 3

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Live Communications – en. Route Services • Integration of Route-Ahead real-time traffic incidents (UK) • Straightforward integration for other markets as communications are enabled and interface developed • Co. Pilot’s Live Communications pipe means that other location-based services can be readily incorporated April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 Real-Time Research • Alternate Routing with Sparse real-time information • Real-Time weather information – Alternate route implications – data distribution • Vehicles as Probes – Building simulation using Co. Pilot tracks – Focus on how and how often to measure what April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 • AHS (Automated Highways) – DARPA Grand Challenge 2005 • “Barstow, CA to Las Vegas over desert “roads” – Prospect 11 • 9 UG +1 G + 5 Faculty Advisors April 12, 2006 Week 10

ORF 401 - Electronic Commerce Spring 2006 • PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) – New Jersey State-Wide System • Designed by ORF 467 F 04/5 & F 05/06 • Objective: 95% O/D within 5 minute walk April 12, 2006 Week 10