7e7281142e88f58c3c452e24802f74f1.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 102
Optimization Re-Engineering Alliance Ascension Agenda Alliance This plan describes a unique opportunity to choreograph a collaborative alliance of the computer firms to create a renaissance of the demand-pull that built the industry.
The IT Turning Point • The IT Crisis – Commodity build-out no longer sustainable • Algorithmic programming is obsolete • Middleman programming is obsolete • Neither can articulate post-industrial demand – Zero-sum fashion loop only sustains Microsoft • Labor arbitrage is ravaging IT elsewhere • Web improvements increase the arbitrage • Rebooting the Computer Industry
An Alliance Business Model to Computer Demand Pull with Optimization Rapid Prototyping and the Computer Industry with Optimization Re-Engineering
R&D Computers Quick Solutions & Turnkey Software Business Metacyber Software. Net. Maintenance And Evolution Point to Point Mentoring and Consulting
Problem Metaphoric Syntax Stratum: Algebraic Formula Stratum: FIND a, x, b, y BY engine to MINIMIZE z z = a*x + b*y Meta. For Compiler Model Translated Model call stor(z, add(mul(a, x), mul(b, y))) Fortran Compiler Arithmetic Stratum z = a*x + b*y z = (a* x+x* a)+(b* y+y* b) Automatic Differentiation (calculus arithmetic)
Strategy: Co-opt current software mass movements: Metaphoric Syntax FIND a, x, b, y BY engine to MINIMIZE z Stratum: Algebraic Formula Stratum: z = a*x + b*y Meta. For Compiler Model (Science Interns) Meta. Bas Meta. C++ call stor(z, add(mul(a, x), mul(b, y))) Fortran Compiler Arithmetic Stratum C compiler z = a*x + b*y z = (a* x+x* a)+(b* y+y* b) Meta. Java Meta. Perl Meta. Python
Recasting New R&D Apps Meta. Python Meta. Perl Meta. For-DVM MENU EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS Collab Notes SOURCE CODE DESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION SOURCE CODE IN PREFORMATTED HTML ELEMENT 1 ELEME NT 2 . . . Meta. Bas Meta. For Collab Meta. Calc. Notes MENU EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS ORE Mining Fortran-DVM SOURCE CODE IN PREFORMATTED HTML Fortran 77 ELEMENT 1 ELEME NT n ELEME NT 2 . . . ORE Mining Collab Notes SOURCE CODE DESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION Collab Notes Meta. Java Meta. C++ Meta-C Collab Notes C-DVM ELEME NT n Common API Library Ansi-C Base Languages
OOP optimization Modeling Libraries • Co-opting OSS – New IT recycling agenda – University collaboration • Standard engineering Component Build-out
Problem-Oriented Optimization GUI Superstructure New face of • OSS Graphics Product Build-out Meta Engineering Library Substructure
Non Profit Software Utility Capital Services MSF BBB Barter Bond Bank Meta Science Foundation Funding R&D Brand Service Firms IXNET Instant Xtra. NET (Choreographer) MCN Metacyber. Net Etc. Shared Consulting Matrix Metacyber. Net
Alliance Software Products • Infrastructure Tools – Foundation – Meta-Calculus (MC) Languages, APIs & Libraries – Meta Engineering (ME) Common Libraries • Extrastructure Tools – Franchises – Meta-Science (Evo. Scoped MC) Languages – Emergent Apps & Wizards – Joint Ventures – Computer-Utility Bundled Infrastructure (IXNET) • Network Matrix Consulting Admin Tools • Extra. Wall VPN – Instant Extranets • Voice-Image Session Packaging (VISP) Tools
Software Pricing Systems • Subscription Service Pricing for all Software – Like telecommunications – Credit cards – Utility/feature based to reward developers • Eliminates software upgrade sales – Eliminates fashion agenda – Styles only change to suit user request • Automatic (opt-in) or Requested Maintenance
Service Business Modes • Brand Franchisers (IXNET-science, MCN-business) – – Computer Utility (IXNET) Consulting Matrix Franchisor (both) Software Contracting Agency (both) Systems A&E Contractors (IXNET) Metacyber. Net • Consulting Matrix Subcontracting – – – ORP Mentoring Projects (IXNET branded) ORP Modeling Projects (IXNET branded) Large ORE-ORP Projects (IXNET branded) Evo. Scoping – Software Maintenance and Evolution ORE-ORP Mentoring (IXNET branded) Foundation Software Development Metacyber. Net
ORP Mentoring Projects Branded • Applications inside the MC Envelope – Programming Skills Required Only – Framing problem in MC template – Selection of solvers • Applications outside the MC Envelope – E. g. PDE – Math reduction required • Choreographer agent selects mentor – Negotiates support rate
ORP Modeling Projects Branded • Client is not the expert – Only provides application requirements • Consultant is physicist or engineer – Graduate student or assistant professor • Choreographer Engineer Selects Consultant – Negotiates higher premium rate
Large ORE-ORP Projects Branded • Choreographer acts as program office • Uses consultant matrix as talent base – Application scientists – Applied mathematicians – Software engineers • Full life cycle with production deployment • Advanced technology development
ORE Mentoring Branded • Consultant programmers & mathematicians • Client supplies simulation expertise – Consultants mentor clients in ORE work – Apply solver experience for difficult optimization
Evo. Scoping Maintenance Branded Metacyber. Net • Business code maintenance (e. g. Cobol) – Refurbisining and documenting old code – Educating old code stakeholders – Economic revitalization – Repurposing old code • Bread & Butter sustaining contracts – Interleaved with IXNET mentoring
Alliance Startup (Phase 1) • Prepare PR Campaign – Create Meta. Science. us Website with MC 7 Demo – Publish Manifesto: ORE Book • Form Foundation & Seek Philanthropic Funds – Acquire Metacyber. Net (MCN) control or IP – Finish MC 8 Languages: Meta. For, Meta. Calc, Meta. C – M 1 - Build Portals and Browser Plug-in IDE • Seek Angel or VC Funding for Brand Franchisors – – MCN – Build Webcode & Lockstep-VCS for MC 8 languages IXNET – Configure Franchisee Subnet Computer Products Launch Mono-Portals for Franchisee Attraction Start Monthly Franchisee Recruiting Symposia • Seek Computer Firm Sponsorships in Foundation – HP, Sun, IBM, SGI, Intel, AMD, Apple
Alliance Startup (Phase 2) • MSF - Build Meta Science OOP Languages – Meta. C++, Meta. Java, Meta. Perl, Meta. Python compilers • MCN – Build Webcode generators for OOP languages • MSF – Cluster-Portals Development – Build Meta. For-DVM and Meta. C-DVM Platforms – Extend MC 8 API for MC 9 (OB) and MC 10 (PMC) Capability – Build and Launch Cluster Portals • IXNET – OREA Network Marketing Campaign – ORP Mentoring Campaign to Start R&D Race – ORE Mining Campaign to Application Industry • MSF - ORE Recasting Campaign in Universities • IXNET – CAD/CAM/CEC Diffusion Campaign – Joint ventures in semi-staple vertical market domains – Semi-staple POO wizards development & marketing
PR Campaign – All Important • Create a World-Centric Renaissance Cause – AI was a dream that had no leverage, no need – OOP had recycle leverage but no need-demand – Meta science has simplicity, leverage, need-demand, and a coherent prosperity plan • Motivate Metaphoric Software Design for Prosperity – Post-industrial demand articulation from R&D need base • Diversification fan-out by diversified end-user invention • Not economically feasible via middleman algorithmic programming – Middlemen must build higher media for end-users • Only end-users can articulate post-industrial demand • Computer industry must adopt a new agenda
End of Presentation
Sub 1 MC
Modeling Paradigm Meta Calculus Extended Languages: Meta Calculus Engine Metaphoric Tool Alphabet API System: Tools: Automatic Differentiation SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION SYSTEMS CORRELATION Interchangeable Solution Tools SYSTEMS SIMULATION
Modeling Paradigm Meta Calculus Extended Languages: Digital Calculus Computation Engine API System: Metaphoric Solution Tools Automatic Differentiation SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION SYSTEMS CORRELATION MENU EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS Collab Notes Tools: SOURCE CODE DESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION SOURCE CODE IN PREFORMATTED HTML ELEMENT 1 ELEME NT 2 . . . Collab Notes ELEME NT n SYSTEMS SIMULATION
Inverse Problem Nesting Paradigm
Meta Calculus Language Evolution • • MC 1 – Model Compiler – NASA Apollo MC 2 – MODTRAN - FORTRAN Interpreter – • MC 3 – SLANG - Macro Language – • Modular/Relocatable Programs & Algorithms Interpretive Languages 1969 1973 CDC Cyber, IBM 370, Univac 1100 Service Bureaus MC 6 – TSPROSE - Commercial Interactive – – 1966 1967 1968 MC 5 – PROSE - Commercial Batch Processing – • Added ODE Algorithm Differentiation MC 4 – SLANG/CUE – • Optimization & Estimation Modeling with Fixed Algorithms AD Pioneering 1966 -1980 1975 CDC Cyber Systems (Cybernet, United Computing Systems) Stabilization of Meta Calculus Paradigm 16 -bit Hiatus – Automatic differentiation infeasible on segmented memories • • • MC 7 – Fortran Calculus – DOS PC (protected mode) Version 1990 MC 8 – Meta. For, Meta. Calc Common Language API (In Development) 2005 MC 9 – ASDL Distributed MC, Meta. For, Meta. Calc, Meta. C 2006 – • Optimization Broadcasting MC 10 – NSF QDMS (Parallel Meta Calculus) Compiled Languages 2007
Sub 2 ORP
Reviving Industrial R&D Short Fuse Needs Proposals Design Testing Math Sophistication Nested Inverse Problems Optimization Correlation Simulation Algebra PENT-UP Demand in R&D Fast Response End-User Programming DEMAND: Black Hole Cost-Time Limited SUPPLY: Meta Calculus Languages Utility-Time Limited Low Cost Development MATLAB FORTRAN-Level Languages C, C++, Java High Cost Development 3 6 9 12 15 18 Programming Time (weeks)
Window of Opportunity 8 weeks to prove concept ~ $20 K budget tolerance Short Fuse Needs Proposals Design Testing Math Sophistication Nested Inverse Problems Optimization Correlation Simulation Algebra Fast Response End-User Programming DEMAND: Black Hole Cost-Time Limited SUPPLY: Meta Calculus Languages Utility-Time Limited Low Cost Development MATLAB FORTRAN-Level Languages C, C++, Java High Cost Development 3 6 9 12 15 18 Programming Time (weeks)
PROSE (MC 5, 6) HISTORY Inverse Problems Track Record • Hughes Aircraft - Satellite Antenna Design Optimization - 3 weeks – • R&D Associates - Maximum Likelihood Estimation - 2. 5 hours - Mentored – • • 6 month FORTRAN effort unsuccessful Tektronix - Electron Trajectory Optimization - 3 Weeks - Mentored Ford Aerospace - Laser System Design - 3 days Wyle Laboratories - Noise Abatement Optimization - 1 day Sierracin Magnedyne - AC Motor Design Optimization - 1 day - Mentored TRW - Optical Systems Optimization - 3 weeks – • FORTRAN estimate = 1 week Rockwell International - Space Telescope Optics - 2 days - Mentored Goodyear - Radial Tire Design – 1 hour - Mentored – • • • FORTRAN estimate = 6 months FORTRAN effort unsuccessful Bechtel Corp. - Steam Power Electric Network - 3 Weeks - Mentored
PROSE (MC 5, 6) HISTORY • • • Tektronix - CRT Design National Steel & Shipbuilding - Tanker Design Watkins-Johnson - Travelling Wave Tube Design GTE - Telephone System Provisional Planning Hughes - Antenna Design Beam Synthesis Du. Pont - Advanced X-ray System Design Goodyear - Radial Tire Design Sierracin Magnedyne - AC Motor Design Bechtel Power - Steam Power Electric Network Design
Knife, Fork & Spoon Feeding Horizontal Sales Application Spawning
Sub 3 ORE
Renaissance A&E Optimization Re-Engineering FIND MODEL DESIGN FMODEL PUMP OPTIMIZATION SUBROUTINE DESIGN FUNCTION PUMP Fortran Simulation Program Comp. Sci Intern Role Meta. For Optimization Program
Renaissance A&E Priming and. Fueling the R&D Race –LIFT: Short Fuse Needs Leveraging Invested FORTRAN Technology FAST Competition SOAR Competition –FAST: Fast Application Software Turnaround –SOAR: State of the Art Racing Math Sophistication Prototyping FAST Meta-Science Languages LIFT Production SOAR FORTRAN-Level Languages
Renaissance A&E Proliferating CAD into Non-Staple Design – Do it yourself CAD • New problems • New technology – High evolution Engineer Entrepreneur Role • Rapid prototyping • Quick time-to-market – Invention CAD • Invention byproducts • Cottage industry Commodities Custom
Distributed Meta Calculus Optimization Broadcasting SIMD - Same model, different start coordinates MIMD - Different Solvers (Different Knives & Forks)
Distributed Meta Science Subsystems Optimization Propulsion Structures Power FIND X IN ONE TO MINIMIZE F OPTIMIZATION SOLVER System Optimization Controls
Industrial Meta Science Concurrent Engineering Optimization Sub. Optimization O-Parts Sub. Optimization STRUCTURES WEB Holon Subnets O-Parts CONTROLS Holon Subnets R&D Software Design Software Mfg. Software Control Software Holon Subnets VPN O-Parts PROPULSION Sub. Optimization ELECTRONICS Sub. Optimization
Sub 4 MSF
Foundation • Member-Only Source Access – Exclusive infrastructure developer • Key function – Co-opt OSSAD – Potentially millions of contract contributors – Rewarded with Barter Bonds (BBs) • Software usage wholesaler to member firms – Income redeems BBs in FIFO order • Meta Calculus Portal Host – Development & Beta Testing
Software Products Infrastructure Tools • Meta-Calculus (MC) Base Languages – Meta. Calc, Meta. Bas – ORP Focused – Meta. For, Meta. C – ORE Focused • APIs & Libraries • Cluster Compilers, APIs & Libraries – Meta. For-DVM, C-DVM • MC OOP Languages – Meta. C++, Meta. Java, Meta. Perl, Meta. Python • Meta Engineering (ME) Common Libraries
Sub 5 MATRIX
Shared Consulting Matrix • Small business consulting firms – E. g. Family firms • Husband – physicist • Wife – programmer • Kids – hackers • Franchisee service units for brand sales – All brand sales by franchisor agencies • IXNET (scientific) - Choreographer • Metacyber. Net (business) Metacyber. Net • Others (business)
Network Matrix Consulting Customer Inhouse Mentoring (high touch) Problem Solving & Prototyping Local IXNET Account Management Site Rep/Scout Technical Management Application Modeling Consultants Remote Math Consultants Remote Shared Consulting Matrix IXNET Project Engineer
Online Mentoring & Consulting High touch High tech Comp. Sci Intern Role
Mentoring & Consulting via Extranet IXNET ™ HEADQUARTERS BRANCHES Public Internet ™ ™ ™
Sub 6 IXNET
Choreographer Brand Franchisor (IXNET) • Computer and Instant Extranet Utility – Lease of subnet computers to consulting matrix – Uniform config, sys-admin, maintenance – Instant Extranet Project Choreographer • Meta Science Portal Host • Consultant matrix franchisee training • Meta science consulting agency – Scientific sales channel for consulting matrix • Meta science software contractor
IXNET Computer Utility Products Bundled Alliance Infrastructure Node Subnets • Extra. Wall Firewall and VPN – Instant Extranets • Voice-Image Session Packaging – Communication Tools • Network Matrix Consulting – Admin Tools ™
™ Instant Extranet VPN Rapid team synthesis for ad-hoc software projects Project ™ HEADQUARTERS MEMBERS Public Internet ™ ™ ™
Voice-Image Session Packaging Computer Utility Bundled Product • “Show me” dialog recording • “Assembly-line” support • “Internet-time” response Replay Customer Tier 3 Mathematicians Replay Recorded Session Package Tier 1 Mentor Tier 2 Engineer
Sub 7 MCN
Metacyber. Net M E T A Software that manages evolution CYBER • Software Maintenance Tools - Evo. Scope TM – Integrated Code and Web Documentation • Richly annotated exploded views, web-linkable • Understandable by users and managers as well as by coders – Maintained in Lock. Step by Web-Based Version Control • Total Quality Management of enterprise software – Rapid Comprehension documentation, strictly maintained • language-independent, web presented, web maintained – Preserves and enhances your company’s vital assets
M E T A Metacyber. Net Service Contracting CYBER Formula for Success + + Onsite Mentoring High Touch Evo. Scope = TM Linux Server Network Matrix Consulting Worldwide Collaborative Maintenance Service Web Tools Automation Economy of Scale New TQM Paradigm
Metacyber. Net Evo. Scope Web. Code Appliance Customers Linux Server Managers MENU EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS User Peers Collab Notes SOURCE CODE DESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION Programmers Collab ELEMENT 2 Notes ELEMENT 1 SOURCE CODE IN PREFORMATTED HTML . . . Collab Notes ELEMENT n • Licenses Bundled with Service Contracts • Multi-Level License Fees • Browse, Generate, Annotate, Collaborate
Metacyber. Net Tooltip Links & Notes Allow Powerful Multi-layered Documentation menu access links MENU EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS Tooltip Notes ELEMENT 2 Tooltip Notes SOURCE CODE DESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION Tooltip Notes ELEMENT 1 Emulates program flow for rapid comprehension Footnote annotation mouse-over tool-tip links SOURCE CODE IN PREFORMATTED HTML Subroutine call Variable ref. . . mouse-over annotation tool-tip links Tooltip Notes ELEMENT n
Metacyber. Network Matrix Consulting MENU EXECUTIVE Collab Notes Collab SYNOPSIS Collab Notes SOURCE CODE Notes DESCRIPTION & ANNOTATION Metacyber. Net SOURCE CODE IN PREFORMATTED HTML Customer ELEMENT 1 ELEMENT 2 . . . Evo. Scope TM Collab Notes ELEMENT n Tier 3 Programmers Work Package Architect Linux Server Metacyber. Net Tier 1 User Peer Mentor Metacyber. Net Tier 2 Project Engineer
Sub 8 CAPSERV
Capital Services • Barter-Bond Bank – Administrator of BB securities – Market Maker of BB securities BBB Barter Bond Bank Funding R&D • Funding R&D and Factoring Services – Mutual and venture fund development – Robot Trading R&D Project (Prior Work) • Open source based – Genius Trader • Augmented with meta calculus technology
Barter Bond Financing • IOU Payment to Volunteer Developers – Redeemed from derived Foundation income – Redeemed in FIFO order – Better incentive than open-source • IOU Payment by Consultant Franchisees – For computer lease, franchise fees etc. – Redeemed by performing labor • Accrues value as bond interest
Sub 9 TZONE
Robot Trader Prototype Product Research Extension of Genius Trader for Options Trading
Tzone Trading Cycle & Simulation Architecture User Shell Scripts 1: 30 pm Roundup Bull Sector Non Sim 1000+ tickers & open-int Perl Driver Scripts Yahoo 6000+ tickers 6000+ option chains 2: 00 pm Tada. Filter Yahoo VPN Internal Website Non Sim Pgsql Databases Review of 150+ candidate options Tzone Web. Site Yahoo Selection List Cand. Base Back. Base Orders Cand. Base 6: 30 am Stock. Bars. Feed 6: 30 am Options. Feed Intraday Stock & Option Chains Back. Base Realtime OX Positions Anytime Simulator 5: 30 am Open. Manual Approval Meeting Phase 1 Prototype 6: 30 am OX Agent 6: 30 pm EDWeb. Agents Cand. Base Replay and Backtesting Broker OX Orders 4: 30 pm EDWeb. Gen 150+ candidate options TZSim Web. Site candidate trades OX Strategy 2: 30 pm Option. Maker Cand. Base Selection of 20+ External Websites (Remote Procedures) 1000+ stock histories 50+ candidate stocks Simulation Control TZSim Website TZ API Modules User Scripts Ticker. Base TZSim Modules 6: 30 am Day. Trader
“Tada” Theory • Technical Analysis of Daily Action (Tada - Holon) – Stock History (starting 6 months prior to trade date) – Selection - GT Buy/Sell signal on trade date – Tada Assemblies (Bottom up Hierarchies – Holons) • Various Indicators (MACD, MFI, RSI) • Various Signals (Indicator Combinations, eg. MACD-MFI) • Various Vanes (Buy/Sell Decision Makers – GT “systems”) • Tada 13 Theory – Zig. Zag Swing Trading – Focus on Stock Cycle Channel (Range) – De-trended Channel for Trending Stocks – Re-trade on closing to catch swing • Confirm with Rocket Science (Ehlers) – Hilbert Frequency Domain Analysis (Future)
Zig. Zag Swing Theory (early version without de-trending) Average of top peaks BTF-WID (Weekly-Intraday) Average down angle EDT* Average of bottom peaks BTF-D Back to the future (Daily) * EDT: Estimated Days to Target
Bullish-Bearish Degrees • Wide Trades – Coded ‘B’ or ‘S’ (BUY or SELL) – ‘B’ – Below average-bottom line on upslope or up day – ‘S’ – Above average-top line on downslope or down day • Edge Trades – Coded ‘b’ or ‘s’ (buy or sell) – ‘b’ – At or near-above average-bottom line, etc. – ‘s’ – At or near-below average-top line, etc. • Mid Trades – Coded ‘bs’ or ‘sb’ (buy-sell or sell-buy) – ‘bs’ – Below mid-point between avg-bottom & avg-top – ‘sb’ – Above mid-point between avg-bottom & avg-top
Filtering with Tandem Tadas Edge trade (s) Merging of tandem tada ratings Tada Rating: Averaging of 2 tandem tadas Different according to gain parameter of Zig. Zag Indicator Gain. Rate = Trade. Gain * Peak. Rate ($/month) ($/swing) (swings/month)
Wide trade (S)
Wide trade (B)
Simulation Architecture Re-factoring Updated Daily—Comprehensive daily data up to yesterday Hist. Base Roundup Tadamon Daemon 16000+ tickers 2000+ Tada Daily Price histories option chains Tada. Fleshout 1000+ tickers & open-int Spliced Intraday histories Tada. Filter 4 Intraday Profiles Tada 14 Ticker. Base Option. Maker 3 Back. Base Tada 15 50+ candidate stocks EDWeb. Gen 150+ candidate options Cand. Base Simulation Control Replay and Backtesting Back. Base EDWeb. Agents Cand. Base TZSim Web. Site Selection of 20+ candidate trades OXBroker Open. Man Tzone Web. Site Review of 150+ Selection List Orders Cand. Base Trade. Base Day. Trader candidate options Manual Approval Meeting Clock Simulator
Machine-Gun (MG) Simulation Architecture 30 sec-Day Reply Cycle Hist. Base Roundup 16000+ tickers 2000+ Tada Daily Price histories option chains Tada. Job Tada 14 Tadamon 1000+ tickers & open-int OXBroker Tada 14 Ticker. Base Broker Simulator Tada 15 Tada. Fleshout Orders Back. Base Tada 15 Ticker. Base Open. Man Cand. Base EDWeb. Gen Cand. Base Ma chi ne. G Trade. Base un &R Interactive Simulation Control EDWeb. Agents TZSim Web. Site e-O rde Day. Trader r. R equ ests ring se Trigge Daily Pau iring) tomatic F (Semi-Au Clock Simulator Replay and Backtesting Phase 2 Prototype 30 sec-Day Request Cycle
Simulator Run Modes & Objectives • Single-Shotgun Mode (Each pellet is a trade) – Tracks the trajectory of one-day’s trade launch – Re-trades on swings qualified by Tada. Mon daemon • Request-reply cycle through Ticker. Base feeds work from Day. Trader • Current positions only, Tada. Mon generates new trades • Machine-Gun Mode – Fires Shotgun each day – New Open. Man Cycle for each day (new batch of trades into the mix) – Deals with aggregate of all trades (easily 500 -1000 active trades) • Primary Objective – Test & Validate Day. Trader – Single shotgun (now) can test position management – Machine shotgun needed to validate portfolio management. • Secondary Objective – Optimize Trading Strategy – Single shot is adequate for this, mostly • Current Status – Machine-Gun Not Yet Operational
Re-Trading Simulations • Next slides illustrate re-trading simulation – Used to validate Tada. Mon daemon • Re-trading focused on Puts & Calls only – A move away from combination trades (e. g. spreads) – But Straddles/Strangles (mid-trades) were openers • According to a naïve pairing strategy, subsequently discarded • Tada. Mon results initially accepted for wide date intervals – Exact date of closing trade might not have new opener – Any Tada. Mon opener within -2 days to +5 days was accepted • To check out the re-trading logic – Only some closings could catch a new opener • Wide intervals accepted less than optimum re-trades
Retrade
Retrade
Retrade
What Has Been Achieved • Development of Fully Automatic Trading Software – Proof of automatic factory trading of options • Reliable sifting of best trades each day – From all stocks in US markets – Optimization of option trades for those stocks • Automatic opening of best trades through broker website • Automatic position management through broker website – Automatic day-trading with intraday feeds – Automatic re-trading after profit-taking – Proof of swing trading factory strategy • Automatic selection of best batch of trades daily • Continuous profit taking to maximize revenue • A Basis for revolutionary wealth generation
Work Still to be Done • Hilbert Tadas – To Confirm Zig. Zag Tadas – Available in TA-LIB, a C-library • We converted to a Perl Extension – not yet applied – Important for Tada. Mon Dynamic Control • Implementation of Dynamic Control – Tada. Mon Daily Updates of Active Positions • Check if trades behaving as forecast • If not, switch to exit lane strategies – Strip Mining – Multi-Lane Closing Strategies • Dynamic Lane Changing is Control Mode
Strip Mining • Fast Lane – Highest Rated Swingers – High Gain. Rate, High Peakrate – High pumpers, up-stroke & down-stroke – High threshold trailing stop strategies • Slow Lane – Change-Up Situations – Not Meeting expectations, but not losers – Low theshold trailing stop strategies • Exit Lane – Suspected Losers – Minimum loss strategies: • Timestops, Time. Trail. Stops, etc. – Aim: Cut losses early
Key to Strip Mining: Tada. Monitoring of Positions Tada. Job Historical Technical Analysis Trade Selection Tada. Mon Active Position Management Trade Selection EDT BTF-D Re-trade Trade Date Check if EDT and Zig. Zag angle is accurate (+- 50%) If yes, set trailing stop when target is crossed If no, switch lanes to slow or exit lanes
Sub 10 IT Crisis
Diminishing Returns Since 1965 $22000 1000 10 1 0. 1 As computing cost fell And labor cost rose Daily Computing The burden should have shifted Cost $200 $150 $100 From expensive labor $70 Daily $50 Labor To cheap machines Cost via $10 Metaphoric Programming Languages $0. 08 0. 01 1957 1965 1972 1980
Primary Creator Modelers Established in the 1950’s MOST BUGS ARE IN ANALYSIS & DESIGN NO PROTOTYPING LENGTHY PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION SLOW PROGRAMMING IN COBOL, PL/I, C, ETC. PRODUCTION-LINE WORK QUEUES MULTIYEAR APPLICATION BACKLOG End User Army SPECIFICATION FREEZE Limited Tools FORMAL DEVELOPMENT LIFE CYCLE Excel, MATLAB, Maple, Mathematica, LENGTHY WRITTEN REQUIREMENTS SPECS Functional Division of Labor C, C++, Smalltalk, Java. Script, Perl, Python, Pascal, Modula 2, 3, 4, VB, Power. Builder, VBScript, C#, SQL PL/SQL, Transact SQL, Delphi, PHP, Yacc, Bison, Bshell, Cshell, Kshell, COBOL, FORTRAN, BASIC Unlimited Tools Programme r Army Middleman IT Labor Implementers
Iterated Middleman IT Labor Frozen Modeling – Can’t Evolve • Modeling Level – Problem Model – What to solve • Programming Level – Math Mechanics – How to solve it • Computing Level Problem Level Formulate Problem Algorithm Level Formulate Algorithm Inverse leverage Produce Program – Debugging Computing Level Debug Program
IT Employment Growth in Staple Recycling Industrial High Cost Production via Algorithmic Languages How Sales of Standard Packages Overtook Custom Software s ity Package od Staple Comm IT Recycled Business Week, 1980
IT Focus left R&D Homeless – Staple Software • Old problems that recur • High economy of scale – Custom Needs Go Begging D E M A N D D E N S I T Y Commodities Low Number Crunching Need Custom High Number Crunching Need
Overall Results: “You see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics. ”. . Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate Economist Harvard: – “Computers are not pulling their weight. ” – Productivity Growth : 1950’s --- 2. 4% 1980’s --- 1. 3%
Too powerful = unneeded = unsold “Computers are too powerful for the usages to which they are being put. ” Harvard Business Review 1991
• Historical Impedance to Engineering Demand – Inverse Leverage from Labor Iteration • Exorbitant Cost • Intolerable Delay • Stillborn Renaissance from Unshifted Paradigm – Economic Imbalance & Homeless R&D – Market Saturation & Cosmetic Consumption • Driver for a New Computing Renaissance:
IT Agenda No Longer Sustainable • Zero-Sum Recycling Agenda is Overbuilt – Sustains Microsoft but momentum is gone – Labor arbitrage is imploding the industry – Global web advance increases arbitrage • IT Can’t Articulate Post-Industrial Demand – Algorithmic programming too expensive – Middleman labor no longer economic – Cannot engage end-user invention • The Computer Industry Must Reboot Itself – From the R&D pent-up need base