OPTIMA INCO-MPC Third Management Board Meeting May 18 19

OPTIMA INCO-MPC Third Management Board Meeting, May 18/19 2008 Gumpoldskirchen DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services Gmb. H A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria kurt@ess. co. at http: //www. ess. co. at 1

Thursday, May 18 09: 00 -09: 15 Welcome & agenda ESS 09: 15 -10: 15 WP 04, water technologies INTERGEO 10: 15 -11: 15 WP 05, GIS data NCRS 11: 15 -12: 00 model scenarios, optimization ESS 12: 00 -14: 00 Lunch break 2

Thursday, May 18 12: 00 -14: 00 Lunch break 14: 00 -14: 45 Stakeholder WS, Jordan C. z 14: 45 -15: 30 Stakeholder WS, Turkey SUMER 15: 30 -17: 00 stakeholders, communication IRMCo 17: 00 -18: 00 WP 16, dissemination IRMCo 3

Friday, May 19 09: 00 -09: 45 case study: Dhiarizos ATLANTIS 09: 45 -10: 30 case study: Gediz SUMER 10: 30 -11: 15 case study: Zarqa UJO 11: 15 -12: 00 case study: Litani ELARD 12: 00 -14: 00 lunch break 4

Friday, May 19 12: 00 -14: 00 lunch break 14: 00 -14: 45 case study: Alexander/Wadi Z. IPCRI 14: 45 -15: 30 case study: Melian CNTD 15: 30 -16: 15 case study: Martil UH 2 M 16: 15 -16: 30 second AR, CS 2 16: 30 -17: 00 WP 15, comparative analysis ELARD 17: 00 -18: 00 workplan, any other business 5

MEETING OBJECTIVES 1. Review of Project Status and progress, active work packages: WP 04, WP 05, case studies 2. Discussion of stakeholder issues, dissemination, communication 3. Agree on next steps of technical work (economic assessment, optimization model workshop) 6

OPTIMA OBJECTIVE Develop a common structured approach to water resources management in several parallel case studies: Common approach and method for • Identifying issues • Involve end users • Describe the systems • Model/optimize them • Analyze/compare 7

OPTIMA: Project Overview • 3 year duration to JUNE 2007 • Started: July 2004 Current PM: 24 of 36 or 2/3 (67%) over – case study results ? 8

OPTIMA: time table 9

OPTIMA: Work Plan Phases 1. Requirements and constraints, DSS processes (end users) 2. Data compilation, tool development 3. Parallel case studies, baseline scenarios, economic assessment, optimization scenarios, results 4. Comparative evaluation, dissemination (end users). 10

OPTIMA: Milestones Milestone Month M 1 Milestone Description 06 End of preparatory phase, first workshop M 2 12 M 3 18 Methods and tools prototypes ready, start of operational phase Case studies implemented, first results of optimisation runs (baseline scenarios !) Post-optimal analysis and assessment phase initiated Case studies completed, second stage optimisation M 4 24 M 5 33 M 6 36 Project and reporting completed 11

Work Plan (simple version) WP 01: done WP 02: done WP 03: done WP 04: largely done, no partner inputs WP 05: largely done WP 06: done, ongoing support yet ? 12

Work Plan (simple version) WP 07 WP 08 WP 09 Cyprus Turkey Lebanon +++++ +-- WP 10 WP 11 WP 12 WP 13 Jordan +-Palestine/Israel + - Tunisia +-Morocco +-13

Baseline targets: • WRM performance targets: – – – Complete and reasonable scenario Total outflow +/- 25% observations Daily flow at least for ONE station close to end node */ 2 – Basic economic assessment • (basis for optimization and comparison ) STREAM performance targets: – DO/BOD within reasonable ranges – any WQ observation data ? – WQ related economics under development 14

Gender issues: • Activities ? • Update report ? • Future plans ? 15

Case studies: how to proceed By PM 18 (December 2005): • Baselines ready for each case • Basic economic assessment • Basic water technologies ready to link, on-line data base • Optimization framework agreed: – Criteria, objectives, constraints 16

Case studies: how to proceed Optimization framework: • Objectives, constraints: • Instruments, water technologies: New questionnaires ? (used for SH workshop in Turkey) 17

Model use targets: WRM performance targets: • Complete and reasonable scenarios includes groundwater links, realistic reservoir data • Provide observation data for CONTROL NODES, add control nodes for all monitoring stations -> compliance, flood damages • Basic economic assessment 18

OPTIMISATION: 1. Technologies are applied to NODES. 2. Each technology affects some model parameters (demand, efficiency/losses) for the different node types at a cost. 3. Benefits accrue from water supplied. 4. Optimization approach: Satisficing • First round: Model selects the combinations of technologies that meets all constraints 19

OPTIMISATION: CONSTRAINTS: • Global constraints • Node specific constraints • Sectoral (not implemented) • directly derived from model results 20

TECHNOLOGIES: Are NOT restricted to technology in a narrow sense, can include policies and institutional change that do affect supply, allocation, demand, efficiency, quality FOR example: – Pricing/subsidies affects demand – Market (privatization) affects allocation – Enforcement (regulatory change) affects quality and efficiency 21

Water Technologies • • • Name, META DATA Description (unstructured, hypertext HTML, types) Application domain • • Investment (annualized): • • unit cost, reference unit for scaling Operation (annual): • • allocation, supply, structures, quality OMR unit cost, reference unit for scaling Effects multiplier for: • Demand, consumptive use, distributions losses /MANUALS/WATERWARE/watertechnologies. html 22

WP 14: post-optimal analysis WP leader: Corridoi. zero WP started: PM 13 (July 2005) Any Activities ? Minimally: define an operational framework, also for stakeholder involvement ! • • • Compile CRITERIA that the model produces or that can be derived, compare with stated issues Analyze relationships, correlation structure Repeat with optimization results if and when available, analyze implicit weights and identify stakeholder preferences. 23

WP 15: comparative analysis WP leader: ELARD WP starts: PM 25 (July 2006) Activities: closely related to WP 14 • Compile the CRITERIA selected in WP 14 from each baseline scenario, analyze ranges and relationships; • Repeat with optimization scenarios if and when available. 24

Thursday, May 18 09: 00 -09: 15 Welcome & agenda ESS 09: 15 -10: 15 WP 04, water technologies INTERGEO 10: 15 -11: 15 WP 05, GIS data NCRS 11: 15 -12: 00 model scenarios, optimization ESS 12: 00 -14: 00 Lunch break 25