d367069d9a9043dca4435fdcb00e9436.ppt
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Opportunities in Global Emerging Markets Charlemagne Capital Julian Mayo, Director of Investments February 24, 2005
Global Emerging Markets Fund Inception Date: February 24, 2005 Investment Objective: The fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing in global emerging markets. General Account: $5, 000 minimum IRA Account: No Minimum Business Account: $5, 000 minimum Trust Account: $5, 000 minimum UGMA/UTMA: $1, 000 minimum ABC Investment Plan: $1, 000 minimum w/$100 minimum per month Expense Ratio: Capped at 2. 0% Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 2
The Subadviser Charlemagne Capital
The Subadviser: Charlemagne Capital § Independent emerging markets investment management group § Entrepreneurial, with significant institutional backing § Funds under management approx. $2. 0 billion* § Strong debt-free balance sheet § Subadviser to US Global Investors Accolade Eastern Europe Fund (ticker: EUROX) – “ 12 -month winner”, Wall Street Journal Best Performing Mutual Fund, as well as the US Global Investors Global Emerging Markets Fund *as at 31 Dec 2004 Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 4
The Subadviser : Charlemagne Capital Assets under management US$ m US$ Dynamic growth: all in emerging markets Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: Charlemagne Capital 5
The Subadviser : Charlemagne Capital Institutional mandates $ 1019 m Long only funds $ 626 m Hedge funds $ 154 m Private equity $ 217 m Segregated accounts Magna range / Offshore funds OCCO range Private equity portfolios Diversified institutional client base Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 6
The Subadviser : Charlemagne Capital Investment team § § § Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets High quality, dedicated professionals Significant emerging market experience Alignment of interest with investors Blue chip, institutional backgrounds Strong internal performance driven culture 7
Investment Process Exploit inefficiencies in emerging markets via a disciplined bottom-up process + focused, low risk portfolios = consistent returns low volatility Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets The goal 8
Investing in Emerging Markets § The Investment Process: How we invest in emerging markets § The Investment Case: Global emerging markets Did you know: Over 80% of people in the world live in emerging markets! Only 10% of Indians have even seen a telephone! Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 9
Investment Process
OCCO Eastern European Fund Investment Process Clear Ownership Structure - Cover (4 Eyes Principle) Stefan Böttcher Andrew Wiles Julian Mayo Lead Manager EMEA Asia 10 years experience 20 years experience 17 years experience Yvonne Yeoh Samir Patel Stefan Herz Manager Head of Research Asia Latam EMEA / Latam 10 years experience 9 years experience 13 years experience James Hanson Risk Manager 11 years experience Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 11
Investment Process § Listed companies Emerging Markets Universe § 80% of market cap § Best opportunities § Special situation Charlemagne Capital Universe § Detailed analysis § Quarterly management meetings § Propriety database Focus Stock List Macro Overlay Portfolio § Risk management § Low volatility § High tracking error Structured, consistent process Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 12
Investment Process: Qualitative Checklist Check List What it means Management quality Corporate governance, track record, strategy, shareholder value focus Top line growth Market leadership, innovative products Earnings growth/quality Lean cost management, consistent operating earnings growth CF-generation Sufficient internally generated CF Balance sheet strength Easy access to finance, low solvency risk Checklist What it means Focus stock list Disciplined bottom-up research Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 13
Investment Process: Company Research Focus stock list: Detailed corporate database Forecast periods Short term cyclical Normalised / Sustainable Valuation analysis Rigorous stock analysis Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 14
Investment Process: Valuation Analysis Relative value Absolute value Traditional ratio analysis DCF / DDM vs. Sector Sum of the parts vs. Market Price target Price-driven valuation analysis Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 15
Investment Process Currency risk Political risk Risk: Significant valuation shift Avoid Macroeconomic risk overlay Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 16
Investment Process: Special Situations Private Equity Corporate Events Local Offices Local Contacts Special situations qualitative screening by fund managers Company visit by fund manager Risk adjusted return target Portfolio (Max. 25% of NAV) Delivering alpha Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 17
Investment Process - Portfolio Construction § Country, sector and cash limits determined by a maximum tracking error of 15% § Special situations + illiquid stocks maximum 25% of NAV § Stock positions: Ø Ø Ø § Core: Max: Min: 3% 9% 1% Large positions: indication of conviction Focused, concentrated portfolios managed within risk limits Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 18
Investment Process Risk management § Administrative risk Ø § Market risk Ø Ø Ø § ‘Four-eyes’ principle – each decision is seconded Constant price screening by dedicated dealer Weekly stock/sector review meetings Monthly macroeconomic reviews Quarterly company visits Portfolio risk Ø Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets must meet criteria such as security of ownership, currency convertibility, custody, taxation, liquidity Informed management of risk 19
Investment Process Sell discipline § Sell triggers: Ø Price change Change of fundamental assessment Superior alternative investment opportunity Ø Instant implementation Ø Ø Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 20
Investment Process: Best Team Ideas The strategy: example OTP Hungary Gross Loans/ GDP 2002 OTP: well placed for convergence § Banking sector penetration will increase towards EU levels as interest rates decline § OTP is the market leader in all products § Expect a further $2 bn in mortgage loans to be added over the next couple of years OTP: Market Share (2003) P/E ’ 04 E Earnings growth ’ 04 E OTP 20% EU retail banks avg Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 9. 5 10. 6 10% Source: Charlemagne Capital / Brunswick UBS Warburg / Merrill Lynch OTP / IMF 21
Investment Process: Best Team Ideas The strategy: example Dongkuk Steel § § Korean steel mill, dominant domestic steel plate producer Strong core product demand from shipbuilding and construction Management addressing corporate governance discount Stock trading at 3 x 2004 earnings, 5% dividend yield Korean Shipbuilding Backlog 18 16 3 ½ yrs backlog 14 m tonnes 12 10 8 6 2004 4 Dongkuk POSCO Global average 1. 9 x 3. 0 x 5. 8 x 2 EV/EBITDA 0 1998 1999 Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Charlemagne Capital 22
Investment Process: Best Team Ideas The strategy: example URBI § § § Leading Mexican home builder Large and growing housing deficit in Mexico Management enhancing margins through better working capital and better revenue mix Strong cash flow generation due to low capex Valuations justified by its better growth prospects Forecasts 2005 P/E 13. 9 11. 5 EV / EBITDA Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 2004 7. 7 6. 9 Source: Charlemagne Capital 23
Investment Process Summary § § § Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Fundamental bottom-up approach Lean decision making Disciplined portfolio construction Rigid sell discipline Informed risk management 24
Investment Case Global Emerging Markets § Politics: better economic management § Economics § Valuations
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets International reserves now exceed external debt Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 26
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Exchange rates seem undervalued Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 27
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs vs Developed mkt cap weighted sovereign yields Spreads narrowed but still room to fall Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 28
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Current Account (% GDP) 04 E 05 E Latin Average 4. 6 3. 9 0. 3 -0. 4 EMEA Ave. 5. 7 4. 7 0. 8 -0. 8 Asian Average 7. 4 6. 2 2. 6 3. 0 GEM 6. 4 5. 3 1. 6 1. 3 High GDP Growth Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 29
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Current account + FDI: surpluses across the board Sound fundamentals Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 30
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs vs global 12 month forward consensus P/Es 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 MSCI EMF 12 month forward P/E MSCI World 12 month forward P/E Cheap relative to world Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 31
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs: Earnings yield gap Equities more attractive than bonds Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: Charlemagne 32
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs vs Developed P/BV Equities look cheap on price to book Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 33
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Standard deviation of country vs sector Country and sector volatility falls – stock selection counts! Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 34
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Stock selection matters – yearly performance 2003 +188% -13% Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets * Top and bottom performance out of largest 25 GEMs stocks by market capitalisation 35
Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA 05 E 06 E Latin America 9. 2 x 8. 4 x 1. 8 x 1. 6 x 4. 8 x 4. 5 x EMEA 9. 4 x 9. 5 x 1. 51 x 1. 36 x 5. 0 x 4. 8 x Asia 10. 1 x 9. 6 x 1. 68 x 1. 50 x 5. 5 x 5. 1 x GEM 9. 7 x 9. 3 x 1. 65 x 1. 47 x 5. 2 x 4. 9 x US 16. 7 x 15. 5 x 2. 66 x 2. 58 x 9. 1 x 8. 7 x Global 14. 4 x 13. 2 x 2. 08 x 1. 89 x 7. 5 x 7. 2 x GEM discount -32. 4% -29. 4% -20. 6% -22. 0% -30. 8% -32. 4% Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: UBS 36
Model Portfolio Global Emerging Markets
Model Portfolio Geographic allocation Actively managed portfolios Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: Charlemagne Capital / Bloomberg – 31 Dec 2004 38
Model Portfolio Geographic allocation Actively managed portfolios Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: Charlemagne Capital / Bloomberg – 31 Dec 2004 39
Model Portfolio Sector allocation Overweight Financials Actively managed portfolios Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: Charlemagne Capital / MSCI – 31 Dec 04 40
Model Portfolio Sector allocation Underweight Materials Actively managed portfolios Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets Source: Charlemagne Capital / MSCI – 31 Dec 04 41
Thank You! For more complete information about the Global Emerging Markets Fund and/or Eastern European Fund (EUROX) or any U. S. Global fund, obtain a prospectus by visiting us at www. usfunds. com or call 1 -800 -US-FUNDS. Please consider carefully the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and read the prospectus carefully before investing. Distributed by U. S. Global Brokerage, Inc. Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. This article should not be considered a recommendation for the securities of any company mentioned. Holdings as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/04: Eastern European Fund: OTP Bank Rt. (8. 34%) Although mentioned none of the following companies are held in the Eastern European Fund as of 12/31/04: America Movil, Dongkuk Steel, Kookmin Bank, Petrochina, Petrobras, Posco, Reliance, Sasol, SK Telecom, Telefonos Mexico, URBI and Yukos. The MSCI EM Free Total Net Return Index measures the market performance, including price performance and income from dividend payments. Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 42
The Disclaimer This document is issued by Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”). 'Magna Umbrella Fund plc is an open ended investment company authorised by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority as a UCITS. It is recognised by the FSA under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for marketing to persons in the UK. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in any fund(s) recipients who are not professional investors should contact their independent financial adviser and all documents relating to the particular fund(s) such as report and accounts and offering memorandum/prospectus should be read, which specify the particular risks associated with the fund(s), together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. The information in this document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice and is not a recommendation or, an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy shares in the fund(s), which may only be made on the basis of the Prospectus/Fund’s Offering Memorandum which can be obtained from the address below. A United Kingdom investor who enters into an Investment Agreement to acquire an interest in the fund will not have the right to cancel the agreement under any cancellation rules made by the FSA. Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited reasonably believes that the information contained herein is accurate as at the date of publication but no warranty or guarantee (express or implied) is given as to accuracy. The information and any opinions expressed herein may change at any time. Issued by Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited - Authorised and Regulated by the FSA. Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited 39 St. James‘s Street London SW 1 A 1 JD United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0)20 7518 2100 Fax: + 44 (0)20 7518 2198/9 www. charlemagnecapital. com marketing@charlemagnecapital. com Charlemagne Capital Specialists in Emerging Markets 43
d367069d9a9043dca4435fdcb00e9436.ppt