Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde het einde

Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem? “ 1993 was a history-making year in Japanese politics. Our people recovered their status as masters of their political situation. I am very optimistic about the future Japanese capability to handle their political problems. ” (Naoki Tanaka, director of the 21 st Century Public Policy Institute)

Ichiro Ozawa in foreign policy making: http: //www. iuj. ac. jp/research/wpap 017. cfm Change… ¡ Japanese politics in the 1990 s: a new context l l l ¡ ¡ End of the cold war Globalization Recession Architect of the new political era: Ozawa Ichiro l l l Creates new party 1993 LDP in opposition LDP regains power http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Ichir o_Ozawa

The LDP desintegrates ¡ Miyazawa Kiichi (1991 -1993) l l l Symbol of the old political generation Recruit scandal (‘ 89) Sagawa Kyubin scandal (‘ 92) ¡ Kanemaru Shin convicted in 1992 for corruption Ø the end of a political generation and political culture

Miyazawa Kiichi

Struggle within the LDP Obuchi Keizo vs Ozawa Ichiro ¡ Reforming the election system ¡ Ozawa becomes spokesman for reformers: factions and money barrier for normal political role for Japan ¡ Young generation for Ozawa; older for Obuchi ¡ Ozawa and 40 mp’s reach out to opposition ¡

Miyazawa stumbles Fails to reform election system ¡ Economic recession worsens ¡ Motion of no-confidence by opposition on 18 -6 -1993 accepted because of Ozawa’s support ¡ Miyazawa disbands parliament and feels let down ¡

The birth of an anti-LDP coalition: preparations ¡ ¡ ¡ Ø Masayoshi Takemura also leaves LDP and creates Sakigake　さきがけ Takemura reaches out to Morihiro Hosokawa’s Nihon Shinto　日本新党 Ozawa creates Shinseito　新政党 Ozawa fears coalition between LDP and Takemura-Hosokawa and starts negotiating with socialists for broad coalition against LDP

The birth of an anti-LDP coalition ¡ ¡ ¡ Elections on 18 -7 -1993 l New parties won many seats; LDP lost less than expected (275 -223) and main loss with JSP (136 -70) l Ozawa disappointed because no majority: choice up to Takemura-Hosokawa: LDP or Ozawa? Why did socialists join forces with Ozawa? l New election system badly needed; impossible with LDP Why did Takemura-Hosokawa choose for Ozawa? l Ozawa offered prime minister position to Hosokawa l Takemura had no choice and joined 6 parties in major coalition against LDP

Hosokawa Morihiro

The Hosokawa government ¡ ¡ Hosokawa prime minister; Doi speaker; Takemura spokesman ¡ Morihiro Hosokawa: successor of a political dynasty l Opposition from the region l Agenda: ¡ Reform of the election system l Accepted in 3 -1994: 300 districts first pasts the post; 200 proportional representation ¡ APL l Hosokawa resigned in march 1994 after 9 months l Coalition divided on article 9: Ozawa wants to change; Takemura opposed to change End of the coalition in June 1994

Ozawa Ichiro pulls the strings…

The LDP regains power LDP forms coalition with socialists and Sakigake: unlikely alliance in change for socialist prime minister ¡ Tomiichi Murayama prime minister; Takeshita strong person ¡ LDP considers SPJ as a faction ¡

Murayama Tomiichi

Escalating social crisis ¡ 17 -1 -1995: Earthquake in Kobe l ¡ 20 -3 -1995: Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack in Tokyo subway l Ø Ø Late and inadequate reaction Poor control over religious groups Socialist party under attack in 1995 higher house elections: maintains 16 from 46 seats LDP regains full control at the start of 1996 but in a different context: coalitions become norm and transparency required

The economic engine sputters ¡ Ryutaro Hashimoto (1996 -1998) l l l ¡ Takeshita faction Strong and nationalistic Reformer in Nakasone government Deep recession: unemployment, bankcrisis, problem of US army bases in Okinawa and first elections according to new system

Hashimoto Ryutaro

Opposition inside and outside the government ¡ Kan Naoto (Sakigake) Minister of Health Care l l ¡ Kan disappointed in own party and government: creates DPJ 日本民主党 with Hatoyama Yukio l l Ø Hemophilia patients infected with HIV virus Conflict between Kan and his ministry Right wing alternative to the LDP 57 mp’s join LDP 239/500: minority government

Hashimoto as a ‘new leader’ ¡ Deregulation, reform and privatization l l ¡ Financial system Economy Education Administration (less ministries) Coalition with Ozawa’s Shinshinto in 9 -’ 97 l l l Many members return to LDP Ozawa creates Liberal Party 自由党 Other members join the DPJ which becomes largest opposition party

Hashimoto’s failure: the final end of the miracle? ¡ 1997: a turning point l l Ø Ø East Asian financial crisis Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Yamaichi Shoken Long Term Credit Bank Hashimoto insecure about which measures to take Higher House elections in 1998: LDP wins 44 seats in stead of expected 61; DPJ won 47; Com. 23

Obuchi: ‘cold pizza’ or wily diplomat? ¡ Obuchi Keizo (1998 -2000) l l ¡ Ozawa’s conditions l l ¡ Obuchi used media well Wants strong government: coalition with Liberal party Less ministries Answers in parliament by ministers 5 -1999: 情報公開法 l Mori Yohei: 天皇家の財布

Obuchi Keizo

Another unlikely partner: Komeito ¡ Coalition joined by Komeito in 10 -1999 l l ¡ ¡ Sokagakkai Against constitutional change For clean government Initially lower incomes but now elder middle class electorate 1 -4 -2000: Ozawa kicked out of coalition One day later: brain hemorrhage but Obuchi very popular

Nationalism, Russia and blunders ¡ Mori Yoshiro (2000 -2001) l l l ¡ ¡ Nationalism was popular but Mori not General elections 25 -6 -2000 l ¡ Emperor is center Change constitution to cope with North-Korea Restore relations with Russia LDP loses majority; DPJ from 95 to 127 Mori steps back 3 -2001

Mori Yoshiro

Koizumi: Japan’s Richard Gere? Election of a new LDP president in front of Media ¡ Choice between old and new Japan ¡ Yasukuni: Yes! ¡ Change the rules to elect the LDP president ¡ Who is Junichiro Koizumi? ¡ New Japan; new LDP with strong and open leadership (Tanaka, Fukuda and Takenaka) ¡

Koizumi Junichiro Koizumi and anti-terrorist legislation: http: //muse. jhu. edu/journals/sais_revie w/v 023/23. 1 shinoda. html

Real opposition against the LDP 9 -2003: unification of DPJ and LP ¡ General elections of 10 -2003 predicted to be ‘the day that the Berlin wall fell’. ¡ Manifest ¡ Koizumi faces problems: Tanaka out; conflict with Nakasone ¡

The start of a new political era? ¡ General elections 9 -11 -2003 l l l Ø Ø LDP 247>237 DPJ 136>177 SPJ 18>6 Com. 20>9 Komeito 31>34 Komeito important DPJ real alternative for LDP

Elections in November 2003

Vraag en lectuur volgende week (25 november 2009) Which post-war Japanese Prime Minister was most influential (domestically and internationally)? ¡ Hoofdstuk 5 en 6 ¡