Скачать презентацию ONS Economic Forum Email economicforum ons gov uk Twitter Скачать презентацию ONS Economic Forum Email economicforum ons gov uk Twitter

941c2a75049e058b9c6e812cf8d076bb.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 87

ONS Economic Forum Email: economicforum@ons. gov. uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http: //www. ons. ONS Economic Forum Email: [email protected] gov. uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http: //www. ons. gov. uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/economic-forum/index. html WIFI code for Barber Surgeons’ Hall: C 897139327 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 1

ONS Economic Forum – October 2015 Agenda 09. 45 Introduction & welcome 10. 00 ONS Economic Forum – October 2015 Agenda 09. 45 Introduction & welcome 10. 00 Sir Charlie Bean 10. 30 Labour Market Flows 11. 00 Refreshment break 11. 30 What’s New 12. 00 What’s Next 2

Introduction and welcome Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics ONS Economic Forum Introduction and welcome Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 3

Independent Review of UK Economic Statistics SIR CHARLES BEAN Terms of Reference • To Independent Review of UK Economic Statistics SIR CHARLES BEAN Terms of Reference • To assess the UK’s future statistics needs in particular relating to the challenges of measuring the modern economy; • To assess the effectiveness of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in delivering those statistics, including the extent to which the ONS makes use of relevant data and emerging data-science techniques; • While fully protecting the independence of the UK national statistics, consider whether the current governance framework best supports the production of world-class economic statistics. 4

Labour Market Flows David Freeman, Deputy Director of Labour Market ONS Economic Forum 15 Labour Market Flows David Freeman, Deputy Director of Labour Market ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 5

Latest labour market data Employment (June to August 2015) 31. 12 million ↑ 140, Latest labour market data Employment (June to August 2015) 31. 12 million ↑ 140, 000 (16 and over) 73. 6% ↑ 0. 2 (16 to 64) Unemployment (June to August 2015) 1. 77 million ↓ 79, 000 5. 4% ↓ 0. 3 (16 and over) Average earnings (June to August 2015) 3. 0% ↑ 0. 1 2. 8% ↓ 0. 1 (Total pay) (Regular pay)

Contents • How do we track people through the labour market? • How does Contents • How do we track people through the labour market? • How does this compare with the headline statistics? • What can flows show us about how the labour market is working?

UK Labour Force Survey: quarterly sample structure JM 14 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave UK Labour Force Survey: quarterly sample structure JM 14 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 AJ 14 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 JS 14 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 OD 14 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 JM 15 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5

Labour Market Flows Statistics Net quarterly flows from LFS Longitudinals differ from the changes Labour Market Flows Statistics Net quarterly flows from LFS Longitudinals differ from the changes in quarterly aggregates from main LFS, because: • smaller sample: just people aged 16 to 64 present in two successive quarters • different weighting methods • excludes imputed non-responders retained in quarterly LFS • published flows seasonally adjusted independently; . . but patterns over time are very similar

Labour Market Flows Statistics Changes in quarterly LFS employment compared with net flow from Labour Market Flows Statistics Changes in quarterly LFS employment compared with net flow from longitudinal (people aged 16 -64)

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Employment level (age 16 -64) Employment level (age 16 -64)

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Unemployment level (age 16 -64) Unemployment level (age 16 -64)

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Labour Market Flows Statistics Labour Market Flows Statistics

Summary • Net changes in levels hide larger movements • Downturn did not affect Summary • Net changes in levels hide larger movements • Downturn did not affect people moving into employment • . . . but did affect people losing jobs • Recent increase in people moving jobs • . . . impact on pay growth?

Future Publications • Analysis of these flows will feature in upcoming editions of the Future Publications • Analysis of these flows will feature in upcoming editions of the ONS Economic Review • Article on trends in self employment planned for publication in November • Eurostat flows release on 26 October • Next update 11 November • July to September 2015

ONS Economic Forum Email: economicforum@ons. gov. uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http: //www. ons. ONS Economic Forum Email: [email protected] gov. uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http: //www. ons. gov. uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/economic-forum/index. html WIFI code for Barber Surgeons’ Hall: C 897139327 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 23

What’s New Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief What’s New Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 24

Blue and Pink Book 2015 Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination ONS Blue and Pink Book 2015 Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 25

What am I going to cover? • GDP • 1997 to Q 2 2015 What am I going to cover? • GDP • 1997 to Q 2 2015 • Current Price • Chained Volume Measures (CVM) • Balance of Payments • 1997 to Q 2 2015 • current prices 26

GDP 1997 to Q 2 2015 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 27 GDP 1997 to Q 2 2015 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 27

GDP CP : revisions to annual levels • Level revised between -£ 2. 8 GDP CP : revisions to annual levels • Level revised between -£ 2. 8 bn to +£ 24. 5 bn per year • Level raised on average by 0. 4% • Average increase £ 2. 6 bn 1997 -2011. . . but larger in recent periods £ 9. 8 bn (2012), £ 21. 8 bn (2013), £ 24. 5 bn (2014) £m 28

GDP CP: annual levels, contributions to revisions £ bn 29 GDP CP: annual levels, contributions to revisions £ bn 29

CP GDP: annual levels, contributions to revisions • GNI: upward revisions 1997 -2008 largely CP GDP: annual levels, contributions to revisions • GNI: upward revisions 1997 -2008 largely due to improved estimates of concealed income • GNI: larger upward revisions 2009 -2014, concealed income + under coverage of small businesses • GFCF: improved estimates for stamp duty, DIY and R&D tax credits etc. • Insurance: correction to the change in provisions for unpaid claims series • New data: switch to LFS from work force jobs in Co. E and new wages & salaries data from HMRC £ bn 30

GDP CP : revisions to annual growth • • Between 1998 and 2014, CP GDP CP : revisions to annual growth • • Between 1998 and 2014, CP GDP annual growth revised by a range per year of -0. 4 pp to +0. 7 pp Avg growth over same period remains unrevised though at 4. 1% per year % 8. 0 7. 0 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 2. 0 1. 0 0. 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -1. 0 -2. 0 -3. 0 Revision 2014 Current Price Estimates Final Blue Book 2015 Current Price Estimates 31

GDP CVM : revisions to annual growth • Avg growth 1998 -2014 now 2. GDP CVM : revisions to annual growth • Avg growth 1998 -2014 now 2. 0% rather than 2. 1% (actual revision is -0. 02 ppts!) • Most interest has been stronger growth in 2011 (0. 4%), 2012 (0. 5%) and 2013 (0. 5%) • Very similar to current price picture % 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 2. 0 1. 0 0. 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -1. 0 -2. 0 -3. 0 -4. 0 -5. 0 Revision 2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates Final Blue Book 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates 32

CVM GDP: revisions to quarterly growth Avg revision Q 2 1997 to Q 2 CVM GDP: revisions to quarterly growth Avg revision Q 2 1997 to Q 2 2015 is 0. 0 ppts • Avg absolute revision over same period is 0. 11 ppts • % 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 -1. 0 -1. 5 -2. 0 -2. 5 Revision 2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates Final 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates 33 2015 Q 2 2014 Q 4 2014 Q 2 2013 Q 4 2013 Q 2 2012 Q 4 2012 Q 2 2011 Q 4 2011 Q 2 2010 Q 4 2010 Q 2 2009 Q 4 2009 Q 2 2008 Q 4 2008 Q 2 2007 Q 4 2007 Q 2 2006 Q 4 2006 Q 2 2005 Q 4 2005 Q 2 2004 Q 4 2004 Q 2 2003 Q 4 2003 Q 2 2002 Q 4 2002 Q 2 2001 Q 4 2001 Q 2 2000 Q 4 2000 Q 2 1999 Q 4 1999 Q 2 1998 Q 4 1998 Q 2 1997 Q 4 -0. 5 1997 Q 2 0. 0

So where does that leave us? • 2008/09 downturn same length, and virtually same So where does that leave us? • 2008/09 downturn same length, and virtually same depth, now -6. 1% was -6. 0% • Strength of the recovery has been revised up: Ø Back to pre-downturn peak in Q 2 2013, one quarter earlier than previously estimated Ø GDP now 5. 9% above pre-downturn peak, was 5. 2% • However, recovery remains weak by historical standards 34

Balance of Payments 1997 to Q 2 2015 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 Balance of Payments 1997 to Q 2 2015 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 35

Current Account Balance 36 Current Account Balance 36

Current Account Balance as % of GDP 37 Current Account Balance as % of GDP 37

International Investment Position 38 International Investment Position 38

So where does that leave us? • Current Account – pretty much where we So where does that leave us? • Current Account – pretty much where we were. . although improvement through 2014/15 • IIP – as you were. . . apart from some improvement in 2013 39

. . . and finally ‘the link’ All communication for the Blue and Pink . . . and finally ‘the link’ All communication for the Blue and Pink Books can be found at: http: //www. ons. gov. uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/nationalaccounts/changes-to-national-accounts/blue-book-and-pink-book-2015 changes/index. html 40

What’s New Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 What’s New Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 41

BB 15: income components of GDP Revisions to the contributions of income components to BB 15: income components of GDP Revisions to the contributions of income components to GDP growth, percentage points 1. 2 1. 0 0. 8 Percentage points 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0 -0. 2 -0. 4 -0. 6 -0. 8 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Statistical discrepancy (income) Taxes on products & production less subsidies Other income (inc mixed income) Gross operating surplus of corporations Compensation of employees 42

BB 15: expenditure components of GDP Revisions to the contributions of expenditure components to BB 15: expenditure components of GDP Revisions to the contributions of expenditure components to GDP growth, percentage points 1. 2 Percentage points 0. 8 0. 4 0. 0 -0. 4 -0. 8 -1. 2 1998 1999 2000 Total revision 2001 2002 HHFCE 2003 2004 GGFCE 2005 2006 GCF 2007 2008 NPISH 2009 2010 Exports 2011 2012 2013 2014 Imports 43

Percentage points Growth driven by domestic demand 44 Percentage points Growth driven by domestic demand 44

Expenditure components of GDP 45 Expenditure components of GDP 45

Indicators of economic well-being Index nos, 2008 Q 1 = 100 108 106 104 Indicators of economic well-being Index nos, 2008 Q 1 = 100 108 106 104 102 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP per head Real Net National Disposable Income (RNNDI) per head 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 2008 Q 1 2009 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2014 Q 1 2015 Q 1 46

Contributions to real income growth 47 Contributions to real income growth 47

Household + NPISH cash saving ratio Per cent of households’ disposable incomes, Blue Book Household + NPISH cash saving ratio Per cent of households’ disposable incomes, Blue Book 2015 basis 48

Sectoral financial balances % of GDP 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Sectoral financial balances % of GDP 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Government -8 Households -10 PNFCs -12 -14 1997 Q 1 Ro. W 1999 Q 1 2001 Q 1 2003 Q 1 2005 Q 1 2007 Q 1 2009 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2015 Q 1 49

Services lead output per hour growth 50 Services lead output per hour growth 50

Manufacturing and services productivity Index nos, 2012 = 100 51 Manufacturing and services productivity Index nos, 2012 = 100 51

Unit labour cost growth picks up Average annual rates of ULC growth 1998 Q Unit labour cost growth picks up Average annual rates of ULC growth 1998 Q 1 -2007 Q 4 +3. 0% 2010 Q 2 -2015 Q 2 +0. 3% 52

Labour share of income Compensation of employees (% of GDP) Total labour incomes (% Labour share of income Compensation of employees (% of GDP) Total labour incomes (% of GDP) 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 40 45 35 30 2015 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2007 Q 1 2003 Q 1 1999 Q 1 1995 Q 1 1991 Q 1 1987 Q 1 1983 Q 1 1979 Q 1 1975 Q 1 1971 Q 1 1967 Q 1 1963 Q 1 1959 Q 1 1955 Q 1 40 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Self-employed labour income Employers' social conts Wages & salaries 53

Business Statistics User event: How e-commerce is changing the shape of business ONS Economic Business Statistics User event: How e-commerce is changing the shape of business ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 54

Total value of website & EDI sales in the UK 55 Total value of website & EDI sales in the UK 55

Proportion of businesses’ turnover from e-commerce and website sales (2013) 56 Proportion of businesses’ turnover from e-commerce and website sales (2013) 56

How does online purchasing by individuals in the UK compare to other countries? Percentage How does online purchasing by individuals in the UK compare to other countries? Percentage of individuals who purchased online in last 12 months, 2014 57

What’s Next Nick Vaughan, Director of National Accounts and Economic Statistics ONS Economic Forum What’s Next Nick Vaughan, Director of National Accounts and Economic Statistics ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 58

Business Demography ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 59 Business Demography ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 59

Business Demography • Rich source of data on businesses: – Births – Deaths – Business Demography • Rich source of data on businesses: – Births – Deaths – 1 to 5 year Survival • By industry and geography • 2014 published on 24 November 60

Background • Harmonised EU methodology • Eurostat/OECD manual specifies methods and requirements • Data Background • Harmonised EU methodology • Eurostat/OECD manual specifies methods and requirements • Data taken from the business register 61

Latest Statistics 2013 62 Latest Statistics 2013 62

By Region 63 By Region 63

By Industry 64 By Industry 64

Detailed data • Detailed industry SIC 3 digit • Detailed geography : county • Detailed data • Detailed industry SIC 3 digit • Detailed geography : county • Available in supporting Excel spreadsheet • Next release : 2014 on 24 November 65

Flow of Funds ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 66 Flow of Funds ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 66

Flow of Funds Project Update The UK Flow of Funds Project: introduction, progress and Flow of Funds Project Update The UK Flow of Funds Project: introduction, progress and future work including experimental whom-to-whom statistics on loans ONS and Bo. E joint article and experimental statistics 13 July Flow of Funds included as part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts Project ONS Spending Review 2015 bid 4 September Assessment of available whom-to-whom information in the UK financial accounts including experimental whom-to-whom statistics on other financial instruments ONS and Bo. E joint article and experimental statistics November [email protected] gsi. gov. uk feedback welcome any time 67

loans by sector, Q 4 2013 PNFC = private non-financial corporations MFI = monetary loans by sector, Q 4 2013 PNFC = private non-financial corporations MFI = monetary financial institutions OFI = financial insts other than MFIs and ICPF Source: ONS experimental statistics ICPF = insurance corps and pension funds CG = central government LG = local government HH+NPISH = households and non-profit institutions serving households Ro. W = rest of the world. 68

House Price Index ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 69 House Price Index ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 69

House price index development: background • Cross Government Working Group looking at the development House price index development: background • Cross Government Working Group looking at the development of a single UK house price index • Feasibility study in 2014 followed by user consultation later in the year to share proposal for new index • User consultation well received (including user events across UK) • Consultation did raise some areas where methodology could be refined 70

House price index development: next steps • New index will bring together data sources House price index development: next steps • New index will bring together data sources from Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Valuation Office Agency and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland • Consistent house prices/price index will be produced at a UK, region and Local Authority level, broken down by: • Cash/Mortgage • Type of buyer (first time buyer/existing owner) • Property type (new or old) • Type of dwelling (detached, semi etc. ) 71

Next steps • Currently finalising data sharing agreements and provision of data supply • Next steps • Currently finalising data sharing agreements and provision of data supply • Once data supply is online, the methodology will be finalised and test production will commence (late 2015) • Paper to be published November/December 2015 detailing the final model and initial transition planning for users • Further User transition details to be published early 2016, including user events • Parallel run in early 2016 until live publication in mid-2016 (provisional date) • New index will replace the current ONS and Land registry HPIs 72

Foreign Direct Investment ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 73 Foreign Direct Investment ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 73

Primary Income 20 Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment Reserve Assets Compensation of Employees Primary Income 20 Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment Reserve Assets Compensation of Employees 15 Other Primary Income Total Primary Income 10 £ Billion 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q 1 Q 2 74

Areas of research Publication: Foreign Direct Investment - An analysis of Foreign Direct Investment Areas of research Publication: Foreign Direct Investment - An analysis of Foreign Direct Investment - the key driver of the recent deterioration in the UK’s Current Account (30 th October) 1. 2. • • • 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. • • • Overview of recent changes in primary income and FDI by economic region Identifying the UK’s main economic regions in terms of FDI and establishing whether deteriorations occur broadly across these regions Understanding whether changes in FDI reflect defences in economic performance between the UK and the rest of the world Establishing the ultimate destination of the investing parent/investment FDI by size of investment Determining whether changes in FDI are similar across different sized investment and their impact on primary income New & existing FDI values Understanding whether changes in FDI reflect changes in the stock of existing FDI or new investments Industry analysis Identifying the main industries contributing to the decline in net FDI earnings, such as the Mining & Quarrying, Information & Communication and Wholesale industries Currency fluctuations Estimating how currency fluctuations have affected FDI over the 2008 -economic downturn and more recently Rates of return distribution Understanding how the distribution of rates of return has evolved over time 75

Web scraped price data ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 76 Web scraped price data ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 76

Data collection, benefits and limitations • Prices for 35 CPI items collected from 3 Data collection, benefits and limitations • Prices for 35 CPI items collected from 3 online retailers: • • Daily collection (around 6, 500 price quotes) Collects price, product name and discount type Period: June 2014 onwards Benefits - more detail - higher frequency - lower cost • Limitations - Currently covers 3 on-line supermarkets (CPI covers multiple stores across country) - All prices are scraped regardless of expenditure (CPI collectors select representative items) - Impractical to manually check prices and classifications 77 - Changes in product descriptions create matching challenges

Food &non-alcoholic beverages weekly indices – high frequency 78 78 Food &non-alcoholic beverages weekly indices – high frequency 78 78

Food & non-alcoholic beverages monthly indices – comparison with CPI 79 79 Food & non-alcoholic beverages monthly indices – comparison with CPI 79 79

Next steps • Machine learning solutions to data cleaning and classification • Strategy for Next steps • Machine learning solutions to data cleaning and classification • Strategy for extreme price changes and imputing missing data • Refine price index number methodology • Expand the web scrapers to collect additional CPI items, from additional stores • ONS are applying for funding from Eurostat to continue the work. 80

HMRC Turnover Data ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 81 HMRC Turnover Data ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 81

Understanding the data • Monthly feed from HMRC to IDBR of VAT returns at Understanding the data • Monthly feed from HMRC to IDBR of VAT returns at VAT registration level. This includes both turnover and expenditure data • Includes all monthly, quarterly and annual VAT returns delivered in the month including revisions to previous periods. This data is from 2007 onwards on a UK SIC 2007 industrial classification. – (Approx. 10% monthly, 89% quarterly, <1% annual) • At 5 months after the reference period the dataset has a VAT return for approximately 1. 7 m businesses within the economy • HMRC (VAT) Turnover is NOT the amount of VAT, and similar to Monthly Business Survey turnover definition: VAT turnover - ‘total value of sales and all other outputs excluding VAT’ Monthly Business Survey -‘what was the value of this business’s turnover excluding VAT’. • Expenditure data is the ‘value excluding VAT of all your inputs (purchases of goods and services)’ so this includes capital and non-capital inputs. 82

HMRC potential • • MBS has a monthly sample size of 32, 000 for HMRC potential • • MBS has a monthly sample size of 32, 000 for production and services industries. The long term plan is to retain MBS ‘fully enumerated’ businesses (approximately 14, 000 questionnaires per month) Advantages: ücontrolled by ONS (ability to validate and response chase) ütimely statistical sample ü‘true’ monthly data üreports export turnover • Could exclude some or all of the sampled businesses and use HMRC turnover data. i. e. medium and smaller businesses (approximately 18, 000 questionnaires per month). Need to investigate on an industry by industry basis • Improved regional data - capability to produce HMRC turnover at NUTS 1 level and below. • Qualitative improvements to short-term indicators: üValue added and margins • Further information to assist: 1. Intermediate consumption 2. Quarterly supply and use 3. Double deflation 83

Challenges • Further work to improve cleaning and validation • Analysis of micro-data from Challenges • Further work to improve cleaning and validation • Analysis of micro-data from HMRC/MBS/ABS • Timeliness from a short-term output indicator perspective. Need to consider implications for the Short Term Statistics regulation • Good data availability by GDP M 3, but significant missing response for GDP M 1 (t+27 days). • The tables below illustrate data availability for the 2014 Q 1 and 2014 Q 2 GDP estimates based on HMRC turnover as at the latest monthly vintage of data (September 2015 = 100) 2014 Q 1 Month 2 Month 3 2014 Q 2 Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Jan 2014 49. 0 86. 2 101. 7 Apr 2014 49. 0 89. 9 100. 2 Feb 2014 30. 0 75. 3 97. 9 May 2014 31. 1 80. 0 98. 6 Mar 2014 0. 4 58. 8 88. 1 Jun 2014 0. 0 62. 0 86. 2 84

Benefits and further information Cost savings for business - reduction in compliance burden Cost Benefits and further information Cost savings for business - reduction in compliance burden Cost savings for ONS - reduction in MBS sample Improvement in terms of coverage of the economy. Improvement in the quality of National Accounts e. g. purchases data could help towards double deflation and quarterly supply and use • Potentially transform regional capability of short-term indicators and National Accounts • Data warehouse of HMRC turnover, expenditure, exports, imports and PAYE is potentially significant for big data – technology implication • • Further information: Feasibility study into the use of HMRC turnover data within Short-term Output Indicators and National Accounts (14 th August 2015) Exploitation of HMRC VAT data (7 th October 2015) 85

Measuring Consumer Prices ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 86 Measuring Consumer Prices ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015 86

Measuring Consumer Prices The options for change consultation • Consultation closed 15 September • Measuring Consumer Prices The options for change consultation • Consultation closed 15 September • Currently summarising the views raised • Summary of responses will be published by early December • The Authority Board will consider these responses carefully before issuing its response to the consultation in the first part of 2016 87