onomy obal Ec l re of G Futu ion -vis RU ng term ios t and lo Shor scenar
RU, RANEPA Union Gaurav Khosla Current situation in GE Evgenia Malikova The short term prospects for GE Gulnara Latfullina The long term prospects for GE Alina Nazarenko Evgenia Gudaeva Inna Shumskaya Ekaterina Bogatova Mary Yagutyan Current situation in Russia The short term consequences for Russia The long term consequences for Russia Summing up
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RU, RANEPA Recall: Important Economic Crisis Asian+Russian Financial Crisis USSR collapse 2 nd World War Wall Street Crash 1991 1939 -45 1929 2007 -Still 1997 -98 Recovering
RU, RANEPA Global Economy: NOW Commodity prices $ and € Inflation Rich-Poor Gap Economies Continues their struggle to recover Credit ratings for Emerging Markets GDP current + forecast Political Unrest in Islamic Countries Commodity Demand
RU, RANEPA Global Economy: NOW IMF Estimates and Revisions
RU, RANEPA Short term prospects: Global Economy • Robots • Intellectual technologies Technology • Small middle class • “Brains” Selfpromotion Political force Econom y Local Social force • New International laws • Global pollution control Environmen t • Growing Terrorism • Limited Resources
RU, RANEPA
RU, RANEPA Long term prospects: Global Economy Distribution of global power Internet connect the entire world Middle class growth Resources: scarcity and competition Technologic al boom is over
RU, RANEPA Current situation in Russia Concept of Infrastructure PPPs S High Level of Corruption Complex Tax System Excessive Bureaucracy Poor Corporate Governance Unbalanced Regional Development W Support to boost innovations Growth in Service Sector Large Market Rich Resource Base Low Sovereign Debt Levels Dependence on Global Energy RUSSIAN BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IS NEVER DULL tensions Negative Population Growth Emigration of Population Policies for FDI Diversification of Economic Base O Higher Rentals Emerging Middle Class Development of SME sector Improving Corporate Governance Unfavorable Climate Large Consumer Market T
Russian GDP (2012) Composition by Sector, % Russian percentage share of total world nominal GDP (2013) % 4. 2 2. 8 Services 37 58. 8 Industry Agricultur e Source: Global Finance 60. 6 Russia 21. 9 USA China India Rest of the world 12. 2 2. 5 Source: IMF
RU, RANEPA Short term consequences: Russia has improved its economic situation through marked phases of development Source: World Economic Forum and World Bank
RU, RANEPA Short term consequences: Russia EU crisis Competition Middle class Transformation + labour migration • Expectation of Rubles Appreciation • Lack of FDI • High quality labour • Insufficient antimonopoly policy • Weak market competition • No drives to develop • Growth of the middle class • New forces to provoke political changes • Slow Growth in technology Intensive Industries • Overall stagnation in the economy
RU, RANEPA Long term consequences: Russia's accession to the WTO Investment Climate Dependence of the production of raw materials Terrorism Open boundaries
RU, RANEPA Summing up What Economies need Global Russia • Healthy Inter Dependencies of Economies • More Corporate Governance • Counter Terrorism • More Innovation • Counter Corruption • Policies for FDI • Business Ease and Transparency • Sectoral Diversification • Robust Education System
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