On-going WMO Demonstration Projects related to EXPO 2010

On-going WMO Demonstration Projects related to EXPO 2010 n Multi Hazard Early Warning System • Leading by SMB/CMA n NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP • Leading by RSMC Tokyo & CMA n Landfall Typhoon FDP • Leading by STI/CMA, East China RMC/CMA & RSMC Tokyo n WENS • Leading by SMB/CMA

WMO Landfall Typhoon Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-LTFDP) Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre Implementing duration: 2010 -2012 Guided by WWRP, TCP, and PWSP Focal point: Hui YU, STI/CMA

Objectives n n n To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits; To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010; To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world; To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members.

Tasks Collection and integration of real-time forecast data Verification of forecasts Forecast reliability analyses Dissemination of products Benefit Assessment

Tasks (5 -1) Collection and integration of real-time forecast data n n Real time forecast products for North Western Pacific tropical cyclone Products to be collected center location intensity place and time of landfall gale extension rainfall intensity and distribution NWP gridded outputs ensemble prediction products ……

Tasks (5 -2) Verification of forecasts n Traditional (or standard) verification • Errors of predicted track, moving speed and direction, skill scores; • Errors of predicted intensity, changing trend of intensity; • Errors of landfall location and time; • TS score of rainfall; • ……

Tasks (5 -2) Verification of forecasts (Cont’d) n Non-traditional verification • Feature-Based Forecast Evaluation gale extend and rainstorm area position (phase) error, error trend, …… • Consistency and persistence

Tasks (5 -3) Forecast reliability analyses • • Assess the reliability of forecasts based on the calculation of forecast errors, object-based diagnostic evaluation and the evaluation of consistency and persistence. Analyze the risk and difficulty of a particular forecast.

Tasks (5 -4) Dissemination of products • • Develop and produce performance information continually, including a mechanism for managing data, integrating operational criteria with performance information and distribution of the performance information when needed is vital. Set up a dissemination platform

Tasks (5 -5) Benefit Assessment n Assessment on LTFDP’s contribution to the operational prediction • • n Frequency of the usage of evaluation information in operational prediction during the EXPO 2010; Improvement of the performance of the landfall typhoon operational prediction with the implementation of LTFDP. Social impact studies To identify and evaluate societal and economic impacts of the LTFDP activities forecasters and the organizers of the EXPO 2010.

Collaboration between NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Landfall Typhoon FDP • • • Ensemble TC track and intensity forecast Verification information on ensemble forecast Application feedback from forecasters

Thank you for your attention

What are expected from THORPEX during EXPO 2010 n Multi Hazard Early Warning System • Gridded outputs of ensemble systems • Real time or 48 hours delay n NWP-Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast RDP • Ensemble TC track and intensity forecast • Real time or ? ? hours delay • Verification information n Landfall Typhoon FDP • Ensemble TC forecast and verification info (from above RDP)

SMB (Regional Center) STI SMC SRMAC …… …… Typhoon Warning Center n n Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in NWP, especially those with potential to affect East China Region Issue tropical cyclone warnings for East China Region

Operational platform of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical cyclone forecast operational flow chart

Why this proposal (To be Cont’d) 1. Quite limited techniques for TC analyses and forecast in current system: • only in-house techniques and information from GTS and internet are accessible • Lacking of in-time accessibility to many advanced techniques in the world

TC Forecast Center: NMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo JTWC NTC/KMA Domestic Model: GRAPES_TCM/STI TC Global Model/CMA Regional TC Model/ITMM International Model: Global TC Model/JMA Global Model/UKMO

Real time super-ensemble product Based on in-house techniques and GTS

Why this proposal (To be Cont’d) 2. Quite limited information on the performance of different analyses and forecast techniques, especially for landfall TC • Very limited real-time/periodic error information of deterministic track and intensity forecast are accessible • Lacking of systematic evaluation on landfall TC forecast, such as landfall time/position, wind/rainfall prediction

Real time forecast verification product Track error Direction error Speed error Absolute intensity error Intensity tendency error

Periodic forecast verification 1 -year or longer

MET Implemented in Regional Weather Prediction System 1. MODE, Scores, Errors 2. H, U, V， Precipitation of regional model

Why this proposal 3. Lacking of benefit assessment in current system • Impact on the forecast and warning activity of advanced techniques • Social impact of improved forecast and warning activity