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Agibalov Oil - Gubkin 2013 -1 (1).pptx

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Oil. Exploration and Production. Supply and Demand Trends. Sergey Agibalov, agibalov@gmail. com Head of Oil. Exploration and Production. Supply and Demand Trends. Sergey Agibalov, [email protected] com Head of Sector, Foundation Institute for Energy and Finance October 2013 ИЭФ

Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World oil supply and demand 4 Russian oil & gas sector– trends and recent developments 5 Conclusions Стр 2 ИЭФ

A simplified overview of the typical oil and gas production process Source: OIL AND A simplified overview of the typical oil and gas production process Source: OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION HANDBOOK, An introduction to oil and gas production (for Engineers), ABB 2009 Стр 3 ИЭФ

Russian energy sector and world energy security Стр 4 ИЭФ Russian energy sector and world energy security Стр 4 ИЭФ

Oil – What it means in Global World? Ideas, Thought, Questions Стр 5 Make Oil – What it means in Global World? Ideas, Thought, Questions Стр 5 Make Your Brain-Map ИЭФ

Mineral fuels – Commodity #1 Стр 6 Source: UN Comtrade ИЭФ Mineral fuels – Commodity #1 Стр 6 Source: UN Comtrade ИЭФ

Oil – World Energy Source #1 (So far) Стр 7 Source: IEA, WEO 2012 Oil – World Energy Source #1 (So far) Стр 7 Source: IEA, WEO 2012 ИЭФ

Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World oil supply and demand 4 Russian oil & gas sector– trends and recent developments 5 Conclusions Стр 8 ИЭФ

Geology - Petroleum Formation Element Composition (%) Carbon 84 -87 Hydrogen 11 -14 Sulfur Geology - Petroleum Formation Element Composition (%) Carbon 84 -87 Hydrogen 11 -14 Sulfur Nitrogen Стр 9 0 -3 0 -1 Oxygen 0 -2 ИЭФ

Geology - Petroleum Formation. Maturation Стр 10 Source: Earth: Portrait of a Planet ИЭФ Geology - Petroleum Formation. Maturation Стр 10 Source: Earth: Portrait of a Planet ИЭФ

Geology - Petroleum Migration Стр 11 ИЭФ Geology - Petroleum Migration Стр 11 ИЭФ

Geology - Petroleum System Стр 12 ИЭФ Geology - Petroleum System Стр 12 ИЭФ

Geology - Petroleum Traps Anticline Fault Stratigraphic trap Salt dome Стр 13 Salt dome Geology - Petroleum Traps Anticline Fault Stratigraphic trap Salt dome Стр 13 Salt dome traps are the source of many of the oil fields along the Gulf Coasts of Texas and Louisiana. ИЭФ

Geology - Seismic survey Стр 14 ИЭФ Geology - Seismic survey Стр 14 ИЭФ

Geology - Seismic survey Стр 15 ИЭФ Geology - Seismic survey Стр 15 ИЭФ

Geology - Geological and Geophysical Interpretation Стр 16 ИЭФ Geology - Geological and Geophysical Interpretation Стр 16 ИЭФ

Drilling basics Стр 17 ИЭФ Drilling basics Стр 17 ИЭФ

Drilling basics – Casing drilling Стр 18 ИЭФ Drilling basics – Casing drilling Стр 18 ИЭФ

Drilling basics – Drilling Bits Rotary Bit (Tricone Bit) Стр 19 Diamond-tipped drill bits Drilling basics – Drilling Bits Rotary Bit (Tricone Bit) Стр 19 Diamond-tipped drill bits (polycrystalline diamond compact - PDC) ИЭФ

Drilling Bits - Choose Your Size Стр 20 ИЭФ Drilling Bits - Choose Your Size Стр 20 ИЭФ

Offshore Drilling Стр 21 ИЭФ Offshore Drilling Стр 21 ИЭФ

Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World oil supply and demand 4 Russian oil & gas sector– trends and recent developments 5 Conclusions Стр 22 ИЭФ

World Oil Reserves Стр 23 ИЭФ World Oil Reserves Стр 23 ИЭФ

Russian energy sector and world energy security World oil production Стр 24 ИЭФ Russian energy sector and world energy security World oil production Стр 24 ИЭФ

World oil production increase 2011 -2000 Стр 25 ИЭФ World oil production increase 2011 -2000 Стр 25 ИЭФ

Oil consumption growth by regions Стр 26 ИЭФ Oil consumption growth by regions Стр 26 ИЭФ

Oil consumption per capita 2012, Tonnes Стр 27 ИЭФ Oil consumption per capita 2012, Tonnes Стр 27 ИЭФ

World consumption growth vs Crude oil prices growth 1965 - 2012 Стр 28 ИЭФ World consumption growth vs Crude oil prices growth 1965 - 2012 Стр 28 ИЭФ

Crude oil prices 1960 - 2012 Стр 29 ИЭФ Crude oil prices 1960 - 2012 Стр 29 ИЭФ

Oil and Economy Production cost curve (not including carbon pricing) Стр 30 OPEC Fiscal Oil and Economy Production cost curve (not including carbon pricing) Стр 30 OPEC Fiscal Cost Curve (2013) ИЭФ

US drilling cost Стр 31 ИЭФ US drilling cost Стр 31 ИЭФ

Commodity prices Стр 32 ИЭФ Commodity prices Стр 32 ИЭФ

Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World Plan 1 Oil - Intro 2 Exploration and Production – General Overview 3 World oil supply and demand 4 Russian oil & gas sector– trends and recent developments 5 Conclusions Стр 33 ИЭФ

Oil production in Russia Стр 34 ИЭФ Oil production in Russia Стр 34 ИЭФ

Crude oil and oil products export Стр 35 ИЭФ Crude oil and oil products export Стр 35 ИЭФ

Crude oil processing Стр 36 ИЭФ Crude oil processing Стр 36 ИЭФ

Downstream Investments Стр 37 ИЭФ Downstream Investments Стр 37 ИЭФ

Oil sector taxation Стр 38 ИЭФ Oil sector taxation Стр 38 ИЭФ

USD per BBL Factual Oil sector taxation Net value for company Стр 39 Extraction USD per BBL Factual Oil sector taxation Net value for company Стр 39 Extraction Tax Export duty ИЭФ

Стр 40 ИЭФ Стр 40 ИЭФ

Export duties Export duty share vs oil price Export duty, USD per bbl Crude Export duties Export duty share vs oil price Export duty, USD per bbl Crude oil export – 245 -250 mln t per year – 1825 mln bbl +7, 8 bln USD per year Стр 41 ИЭФ

Taxation of oil products Стр 42 ИЭФ Taxation of oil products Стр 42 ИЭФ

Artic sunrise: Lets play again Sergey Agibalov October 2013 ИЭФ Artic sunrise: Lets play again Sergey Agibalov October 2013 ИЭФ

Arctic: Oil and gas resources Main trends Arctic oil resources, 2012 According to estimates Arctic: Oil and gas resources Main trends Arctic oil resources, 2012 According to estimates of the US Geological Survey (USGS), non-discovered hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic region include approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 47 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of gas condensate; 84 percent of 412 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) falls on the continental arctic shelf. The Arctic region is divided among the eight countries: USA, Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. Up to now, 61 large oil and gas fields have been discovered north of the Arctic Circle, 43 of which are located on the territory of Russia, 11 in Canada, six in Alaska (USA), and one field is in Norway. Natural gas resources, 2012 ÞFor the Russia Arctic offshore is critical to maintain the level of oil production at the current level, as well as increasing oil capacity. Стр 44 Source: USGS ИЭФ

Arctic: Tax regime US (Alaska) Canada Greenland Norway Russia (current) Russia offshore (proposed) Profits-based Arctic: Tax regime US (Alaska) Canada Greenland Norway Russia (current) Russia offshore (proposed) Profits-based Revenue-based Corporate income Royalties (Mineral Profits-based tax with additional Extraction Tax Corporate income income tax for (MET)) and export tax and royalties tax upstream activities duties (MET) Fiscal basis and key features Indicative average level of overall fiscal burden on project’s economics at US$80/bbl 48%– 72% 42%– 54% 35%– 40% 79% 75%–over 100% Less than 70% Timing of taxation Weakly to average Average front-end Weakly front-end Extremely Average front-end toward project’s payout front-end loaded front-end loaded Production royalties (MET) significantly reduced, export duty abolished, Reduced royalties, import duties and limited holidays property tax and lower rates for exemptions designated allowed, and Various capital Capital allowances locations and capital llowances Investment incentives allowances and uplifts specific fields and uplifts Loss Indefinitely/ 10 years/ carryforward/carryback period 20 years/2 years 20 years/3 years 0 years 70 years/0 years Стр 45 Source: EY ИЭФ

Arctic: Russia ahead US Canada Greenland Norway Russia General terms Access to resources Competition Arctic: Russia ahead US Canada Greenland Norway Russia General terms Access to resources Competition for resources Cost environment Existing infrastructure Access to markets Potential for material discoveries Potential for material value creation Стр 46 Source: EY ИЭФ

Arctic: Prirazlomnoye field – first swallow Main trends Prirazlomnoye offshore ice-resistant oil producing platform Arctic: Prirazlomnoye field – first swallow Main trends Prirazlomnoye offshore ice-resistant oil producing platform The Prirazlomnoye field was discovered in 1989. It is located on the Pechora Sea shelf 60 kilometers off the shore (Varandey settlement) at the water depth of 19 to 20 meters. The Prirazlomnoye field contains 72 million tons of oil reserves enabling to achieve the annual production level of 6. 6 million tons. Production operations in the Prirazlomnoye field are scheduled to start in 2013. Peak oil prosduction – 6 mtoe, NG production – 300 mcm. Oil production, 2013 -2020 Prirazlomnaya platform: Built by Sevmash Production Association, the Prirazlomnaya offshore ice-resistant oilproducing platform is a key pre-development facility. The platform will ensure well drilling, oil production, storage and offloading. The main features are its resistance to strong ice loads, long self-sustainability and year-round operability. 40 slanted wells will be drilled from it. Стр 47 Source: Gazprom ИЭФ

Arctic: Main risks Regulatory Risk. The negative attention deepwater and Arctic drilling has received Arctic: Main risks Regulatory Risk. The negative attention deepwater and Arctic drilling has received as result of recent offshore catastrophes had implications on regulatory frameworks. Various jurisdictions have begun to review, or have already tightened, environmental and safety requirements for the issuance of drilling permits. For example, Royal Dutch Shell’s plan to start exploration drilling in the Beaufort Sea in 2010 has experienced a longer permitting timeframe that has delayed operations for at least two years. Litigation Risk. Generally, litigation risk relates to the effects of pollution and the subsequent compensation claims filed by affected parties, who might also seek to receive punitive damages after an unplanned event. Reputational Risk. The powerful images of oil spills, worker fatalities, and the effects of climate change in the Arctic can induce strong emotion among the general public and can expose companies involved in deepwater and Arctic operations to significant negative media attention. Operational Risk. Operating in deepwater and Arctic environments is generally more complicated than operating in shallow water. The depth of deepwater drilling translates into extremely low temperatures and high pressures. Drilling risers and other equipment are built with thicker walls and higher grade materials to handle the additional stress. However, there is no one-size-fits-all technology that guarantees safe operations. Стр 48 ИЭФ