OECD IEA 2007 Security of Supply from East

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© OECD/IEA 2007 Security of Supply from East and Middle-East Kieran Mc. Namara Energy Diversification Division International Energy Agency GIE Madrid 22 November 2007 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

© OECD/IEA 2007 Security of Supply Challenges l. Challenge not unique to Europe but a global concern l. We all want secure, reliable and affordable energy that’s…. . l. Easy on the environment l. But… we live in times of rising prices, geopolitical uncertainty and tight security INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

© OECD/IEA 2007 Security of Supply Challenges l Global energy demand set to grow by over 50% in next 25 years l Indigenous production has reached plateau l Increasing reliance on pipeline gas from Russia and North Africa l Growing dependence on LNG imports l Gas fired generation driving demand l Can infrastructure keep up? INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Significant Investment Needed © OECD/IEA 2007 700 600 planned+proposed under construction 500 Required investment according to IEA WEO 06 400 300 200 100 0 Exploration and Development INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Transmission and storage LNG AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Possible LNG Sales by Region © OECD/IEA 2007 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russian Federation © OECD/IEA 2007 l Largest player in globalising world market l Growing domestic demand l Concerns over level of investment needed to deliver new supplies l Reform of domestic pricing l Relationship with former Soviet Republics INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russian Federation © OECD/IEA 2007 Russian Gas Exports 2020 2010 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 Russian Gas consumption (bcm) 100 200 300 Russian Gas 500 Production (bcm) 400 600 700 Source: Gazprom INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russian Federation © OECD/IEA 2007 l Pipeline investment and transit avoidance l Storage investment l Regulatory reform l Widespread flaring and inefficiency l Export price reform l Gas substitution in the power sector INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russian Federation © OECD/IEA 2007 15 bcm of gas officially reported flared in 2005 Satellite methodology estimates 60 bcm… Volumes are increasing with oil production… INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Central Asia and FSU © OECD/IEA 2007 l Looking for export opportunities, east and west l Many pipeline opportunities l Russian legacy l Investment uncertainty l Turkmen – China pipeline? l Exports to China or Iran? INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Central Asia and FSU © OECD/IEA 2007 Proposed Nabucco Pipeline © Nabucco Gas Pipeline International Gmb. H INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Central Asia and FSU © OECD/IEA 2007 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Qatar and Middle East © OECD/IEA 2007 l Large reserves l Rapid rise in domestic demand l Qatar moratorium until 2009 l Shortages in Oman, UAE, KSA and Kuwait l Some positive investment signs…. l Negatives also l Domestic pricing a problem INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Iran and Qatar - No. 2 and No. 3 © OECD/IEA 2007 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Iran © OECD/IEA 2007 l Potential; large oil and gas reserves l Unstable political situation & faltering economy l Little foreign investment l Buy back contracts a problem l South Pars troubled l Internal tensions l Pipeline proposals INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

© OECD/IEA 2007 Short-Term Gas Security l Increasing import dependence on one major supply source to east l Recent supply problems a cause of concern l Need to develop/strengthen emergency measures including strategic stocks INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

© OECD/IEA 2007 Long-Term Security = Investment + Diversification l LNG expanding rapidly l Serious risk of underinvestment worse than GMR 2006 l Upstream in Non IEA countries (role of a Gas OPEC? ? ) l Downstream in IEA Countries l Diversification of sources, suppliers, supply routes - and in electricity INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

EUROPEAN NEEDS © OECD/IEA 2007 l More diverse electricity sector l More efficiency in gas and electricity use l More diverse imported gas and the infrastructure that goes with it l More interconnection, in gas and power l A market that works INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Spare Slides © OECD/IEA 2007 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Spare Slides © OECD/IEA 2007 Russian Gas Exports 2020 2010 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 Russian Gas consumption (bcm) 100 200 300 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Russian Gas 500 Production (bcm) 400 600 700 AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Spare Slides © OECD/IEA 2007 (Potential) Russian Exports (bcm) 2020 2010 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 206 211 216 221 226 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 231 236 241 246 251 256 AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

World Energy Outlook 2007 © OECD/IEA 2007 • Detailed analysis of the energy and environmental prospects for China and India • Assessment of the implications for global energy markets, climate, world economy and government policy • Scenario approach: • Reference Scenario • Alternative Policy Scenario • High Growth Scenario • Development of detailed data-bases and models for China and India, including China coastal regions. • Cooperation with China’s NDRC, India’s TERI, IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, CIRED, etc. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russia – Planned price revisions © OECD/IEA 2007 l Gazprom has signaled it intends to increase prices to FSU states again in 2008 l Negotiations with Ukraine and Belarus, both transit states for most Russian gas to Europe, may be difficult l Growing consensus that Russia will only be able to deliver MCQ if winter average cold INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Russian Gas Flaring. . . © OECD/IEA 2007 15 bcm of gas officially reported flared in 2005 Satellite methodology estimates 60 bcm… Volumes are increasing with oil production… INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Potential Gas Savings: 30 bcm/y © OECD/IEA 2007 * IEA estimates based on 2004 data …over 20% of total Russian exports to W. Europe INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

A Quick Quiz © OECD/IEA 2007 l Place A: 1. 7 mill km 2. 630, 000 rich people, (lots of oil), but gas exports? l Place B: 2. 6 mill km 2 mostly desert, 2 million people, lots of gas, but “reserving 25%” a problem l Place C: 3. 8 million mi 2, big producer of oil and gas, but new pipelines delayed by costs, environmental, other issues l Place D: 4 million people, large and rapidly expanding gas producer, but self imposed ceiling INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Adequacy of Gas Supply Global Gas Reserves by Regions (tcm) © OECD/IEA 2007 Source: Cedigaz INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

World Proved Reserves of Natural Gas © OECD/IEA 2007 7% 8% 42% 4% 4% 3% North America Central and South America Europe 33% Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia and Oceania Source; Oil & Gas Journal, Dec. 2006 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE