Ocean Resource Management Strategies for a Better Future Timothy C. Mack President World Future Society November 2009
A Sustainable Ocean Future n The rapid global increase in the production outputs of industry, agriculture and fisheries, as well as rising levels of consumption worldwide is exerting increasing environmental pressure on the ocean. We must find more effective means to reduce the environmental impact derived from this economic growth and its byproducts. Sustainable approaches must meet the needs of present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 2
Oceans as Sustainable Solution n Oceans can offer hope for solutions in many challenging areas – and provide new resources, markets, and partnerships. The Ocean is a treasure trove of future resources that can replace diminishing land resources for food and materials. The Ocean also accounts for 30 % of world petroleum reserves and half of natural gas reserves, nearly ¾ of earth oxygen is generated by ocean biomass, 1/3 of fresh water evaporates from it and half of the presently generated CO 2 is absorbed by the ocean (but because of that ocean oxygen content is dropping and CO 2 content is rising). November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 3
Feedstock for the Future n n On the land, population growth, demand for grain-intensive livestock, and the conversion of grains to bio-fuels will contribute to food shortages in the coming years. The sustainable farming of the sea, and harvesting of bio-stocks from the ocean for fuel, food and chemicals provides an enormous opportunity for those counties committed to new and innovative approaches to grow the Ocean Economy. On the other hand, overharvesting-driven declines in fish populations over recent decades (including migrating fish) raises concerns, in spite of some gains from conservation practices. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 4
Challenges to Food Security n Results at five out ten marine ecosystems recently studied at Woods Hole’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center indicated that overfishing has been reduced in some cases (but these success stories accounted for only 10% of the world catch. ) On the other side of that equation, almost 70% of fisheries are still at risk and continue to need rebuilding. Even then, that is more positive than an earlier prediction from Halifax, Nova Scotia that wild-caught fish would be gone from our oceans by 2048. An important factor in rebuilding are strong national laws against overfishing, including catch limits. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 5
Climate Change Impacts n n One coastal zone climate change that raises a great deal of concern is the potential for shifts in ocean current patterns – for example along this temperate area of Korea’s south coast. These are large scale patterns, and the ‘tipping points’ and scale of possible current shifts are not yet fully understood – including the impact on tourism and ocean commerce. Added to this are rising sea levels, enhanced typhoon and hurricane activity, sea-life die offs, coastal erosion, ecological disruption, and the impact on both coastal and deepwater aquaculture. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 6
Climate Change Responses n n Strategies include sustainable practices and innovative technologies for integrated coastal and ocean management – addressing biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption through enhancement of resiliency in eco, social and economic systems plus combating carbonic acid build-up in the oceans due to increased CO 2 absorption (with shellfish and coral reefs especially at risk) and contributing man-made hazards such as marine debris accumulation (and the related algae blooms and global jellyfish epidemic). A good deal of research is being directed at understanding climate change and how to adapt to changed conditions. But of course, a more direct strategy is the mitigation of CO 2 emissions, largely through increased use of renewable energy and greater emissions controls. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 7
Renewable Energy Solutions n While ocean-based biofuels are one direction of energy development, ocean kinetic power is an almost inexhaustible path – both wave and tidal driven. Both provide highly predicable patterns of power delivery though a medium over 800 times denser than air (thus allowing for more compact and durable turbines than wind power generation). With nearly 50 percent (and growing) of the world’s population living within 60 miles of a coast, transmission is cost effective, as we will see with the Sihwa tidal project and Korean Midland Power/Lunar Energy project (scheduled to be completed by 2015). November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 8
Ocean Energy n n A recent UN projection of the ‘technically exploitable’ potential of power from water (including ocean power) is 15 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is half the total projected global power use in 2030. At present, only 15% of this potential has been developed worldwide, but direct investment in ocean-based power [wave, tidal, thermal] has experienced a ten-fold growth in annual amounts invested over the past few years, with at least 100 companies now developing innovative technical solutions worldwide. However, UN and World Energy Council projections only expect 250 million kilowatts to be on line by 2030 at present rates of development. It is clear that this enormous potential resource requires addition commitment to bring about a major global benefit. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 9
November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 10
Other New Frontiers n Extraordinary opportunities for sustainable resource management also exist in industries such as shipping and shipbuilding. Ocean shipping, with its lower overall carbon impact (compared to other transport modes), also suggests possible global markets for renewable power sources, light and low friction hull materials (to reduce energy expenditure) and advanced navigation and hazard alert systems to avoid damaging cargo spills. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 11
Other New Frontiers n Ocean resource utilization through sustainable means includes biotechnology, as well as ocean chemical and materials science (including bioplastics) plus pharmaceutical research and development. It also requires enhanced ocean mapping and resource location technologies and greater understanding of ongoing changes in the coastal zones. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 12
Converging Technology Advances n n Biotech breakthroughs require modeling submicroscopic systems. This will lead to a breaking down of the boundaries between living and non-living systems and their greater interactivity – and a convergence expansion among the ‘info-bio-nano-hydro’ sciences and their resulting impact on social, ethical, legal, political and economic structures. This expansion is being driven by our growing IT capabilities – we can expect more than 100, 000 percent increase in computer processing power per unit of cost over the next 15 years. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 13
Cooperative Partnerships n In the 21 st Century, the most successful strategies will be cooperative versus competitive ones. Effective responses to the growing level of resource uncertainty will require institutional agility and flexibility among governments, the private sector, and NGOs, as well as energetic cooperation with a range of intergovernmental, non-governmental and international partners. The goal is to proactively address uncertainty through research and systems analysis and reduce attendant risks by building cooperative organizational capacities to hedge against potential threats and seize opportunities. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 14
International Agreements n n Unfortunately, while theory of joint cooperative endeavors is sound, its practice has not always been ideal. The 1995 UN FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries, accepted by all countries, has largely been ignored by those countries accounting for 2/3 of all fish caught worldwide and insufficiently complied with by the 28 countries accounting for 95% of all fish caught. A review in 2008 found that, in many cases, the national goals of adequate present food supply, economic benefits and employment security continue to significantly outweigh goals of conservation and long term food security. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 15
Expanding Jurisdiction n n Of course, the answer to more effective enforcement of cooperative agreements is the inclusion of enforcement mechanisms and penalties with resources to back them up…but they are still most effective in international areas outside territorial control. A time-worn cliché is that no one takes responsibility for the deep ocean because no one owns it – terra nullius applied to the ocean floor. However, this is becoming less the case as countries continue to geographically expand their economic spheres of influence into the surrounding oceans. While African countries like Kenya are just beginning to apply for territory beyond the 200 mile limit, New Zealand successfully claimed an Exclusive Economic Zone of 4 million sq. km. in 1982. At present, New Zealand is exploring additional continental shelf territory beyond 200 miles, but it is also one of the more successful countries in reversing the decline of fisheries stocks through rigorous fisheries management. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 16
Resource Challenge n When talking about the future of effective resource management or healthy economies a critical issue is the growing worldwide talent crisis in the STEM (science, technology, engineering, math) areas. China is focusing on leapfrogging science into the 21 st century, but even there many young people are pursuing business, communications or finance degrees. Without knowledgeable people to analyze the ocean and enforce anti-pollution laws …no results. Knowledge and capacity development is a critical need for the future. . . in all its aspects! November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 17
Conclusion n Ocean Resource Management can be most successfully achieved through coordinated protection of ecosystems, coastlines and culture, while also developing sustainable strategies to meet resource, food, marketing and environmental challenges for competitive economic growth. Areas such as fisheries and aquaculture research and management will be critical (especially with potential northward species migration due to climate change). As the global ocean economy continues to develop into areas such as energy, chemicals and new materials, so will the necessity to sustainably management these new resources. This is a challenge we must meet with energy, skill and imagination! November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 18
Summary n n n This has been an extraordinary conference, and we have learned a great deal from our colleagues around the world. Two factors are completely clear: 1) There is a great crisis facing mankind concerning the use and management of ocean resources worldwide and 2) The response to this crisis will take all of our focus and our political will. While great strides are being made in technology, it is politics and education where the greatest obstacles are located. We must show the world what the future must be like for global survival and growth and build a common cause for success. November 2009 World Future Society http: //www. wfs. org 19
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