Ocean Prediction Center www opc ncep noaa gov

Ocean Prediction Center (www. opc. ncep. noaa. gov) Ming Ji, Director “where NOAA’s ocean obs. , research and operational services come together” 1 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Outline · · 2 Overview Marine Weather Storm Surge Forecasting Research to Operations Transition NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service 3 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

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Requirements for NWS Marine and Ocean Warnings and Forecasts Mission International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS-1974 and amendments) • Sets international policy and requirements for safer shipping and cleaner oceans • Event of April 14 -15, 1912 • U. S. implements convention and policy through Executive Order 12234 – Enforcement of the Convention for SOLAS • U. S. Commission on Ocean Policy (2004) 5 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

OPC’s Vision & Mission · OPC Vision: The OPC strives to be the mariner’s weather lifeline through exceptional products and customer service. · OPC Mission: The OPC provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning, forecast, and analysis products and services for the north Atlantic and north Pacific as part of the NOAA mission of protecting life and property and enhancing economic opportunity. 6 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

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Maritime Safety Systems 8 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

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OPC’s Products and Services · Marine Wx Warnings and Forecasts – Atlantic and Pacific high seas – Atlantic and Pacific regional (off shore zones) · Global quality control of marine observations · On-Demand Support for HAZMAT, Search and Rescue · Support for Tropical Cyclones for TPC/NHC · Oceanographic forecasts and services · Coastal warning and forecast guidance 10 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Examples of OPC’s on-demand support for emergency response · Egypt. Air 990 on-scene & reach back support to NTSB (Nov 1999) · Finding M/V White Seal adrift off the Carolina coast (2003) M/V White Seal · Tailored marine forecasts to USCG and NOAA HAZMAT for Disabled M/V Cougar Ace south of the Aleutians (Jul – Aug 2006) 11 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner M/V Cougar Ace

Examples of OPC Customers · Commercial shipping/transportation · Commercial and recreational fishing · Private weather and ship routing services · Recreational boating · USCG Search & Rescue · Hazmat/Recovery & Restoration · Maritime Homeland Security 12 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Examples of OPC Partners · USCG – Product dissemination · US Navy – Partnership on Operational Oceanographic Forecasts and Information Services · NOAA Corps · NWS Field Offices, NCEP/TPC – NWS Marine and Ocean Warnings and Forecasts Mission · NOAA/National Ocean Service (NOS - coastal, eco-sys fcsting) · Foreign Weather Services - International Commitments 13 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

OPC Product Dissemination 14 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Where We Are Going · “Where NOAA ocean obs, research and operational services come together” • Toward operational service delivery of forecast guidance for oceans, coasts, estuaries, and eco -systems 15 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Products and Services Under Development · Enabled by advancements in modeling and observing systems · Operational Oceanographic Products and Services – Ocean analyses • e. g. , SST, Surface Currents, Salinity – Ocean Forecasts • HYCOM based global/basin model · Coastal Storm Surge Forecast Guidance – Based on ET-SLOSH & Next Gen. Storm Surge Models – Support WFO for warnings and forecast for coastal flooding, inundation 16 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Storm Surge Schematic (White water-Brown water-Blue water) Also Need to Consider River Discharge Source: USACE-FEMA Comprehensive Hurricane Data Preparedness Study 17 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

An initial guidance capability for extratropical storm surge: · · · ET-SURGE: Extratropical version of the SLOSH Forced by operational NWP model winds 4 xdaily, out to 96 hours Gridded output (Early 2008) Experimental forecast guidance (OPC): surge above astronomical tides (2008) · Including astronomical tides (Late 2008) 18 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

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U. S. Mid-Atlantic Coast Tide Gauges 20 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

ET-SURGE output at New London, CT 21 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Hydrology model for river discharge 22 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

NCEP Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Operational December 2005, upgraded June 2007 · RTOFS provides – Routine estimation of the ocean state [T, S, U, V, W, SSH] » Daily to 1 week forecast – 5 km coastal resolution – Initial and boundary conditions for local model applications · Applications – Downscaling support for coastal forecasts (storm surge, shipping) – Improved hurricane forecasts 23 Chesapeake Bay NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

High resolution coastal model (ADCIRC) 15 m Topographic Contour High resolution unstructured triangular mesh with elevation relative to NAVD 88 Beaufort Inlet MHW Shoreline 24 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Multi-Grid Wave Modeling Higher coastal model resolution Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model Highest model resolution in areas of special interest 25 Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF Multi-grid wave model tentative resolutions in minutes Implementation in FY 2007 -Q 4. NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Research to Operations · Ocean Surface Vector Winds – Quik. SCAT, Wind. Sat, ASCAT for wind warnings and forecasts · Altimeter significant wave height – Jason-1 for wave forecasts · Operational Oceanography – Global/basin ocean models (GODAE) – SST analysis (MISST, GHRSST) – Surface current analysis (OSCAR) · Coastal Forecast Systems (i. e. , SLOSH, ADCIRC) 26 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Over 100 were observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific this past winter! Improved wind algorithm, rain impact flag Available Oct 06 Quik. SCAT winds Operational in N-AWIPS Workstations Oct 01 12. 5 km Quik. SCAT Available May 04 Hurricane Force Wind Warning Initiated Dec 2000 Quik. SCAT launch Jun 99 27 Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NWS/NCEP/OPC NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

Typhoon Man-Yi, July 12, 2007 28 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

U. S. Commercial Interests: 39% in Jan. 2007 29 NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner

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