
0210dd4c8c506128c4e8c1a4b85c65f7.ppt
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NWS Science & Technology Roadmap, V 1. 0 (under review, debate, coordination) Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science & Technology June 25, 2009 Prepared For Our Partners
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Overview § Guiding Principles § Roadmap Construct § Service Area Goals; Research Needs and Opportunities § Potential Societal Benefits § Example Service Area Roadmap § Enabling Capabilities Goals § Schedule & Milestones 2
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Guiding Principles OST Mission: Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations § Meet NWS Strategic Plan S & T objectives § Develop service area stretch goals to rally and influence Nation’s research strategies, plans and investments § Harness the Nation’s best expertise to solve scientific challenges § Field next generation observing/forecast systems to… ü Ensure timely, accurate and relevant weather information for governmental decision makers, general public, private industry § Ensure rapid, on-demand access to information for all… from sophisticated user to “Joe the plumber” 3
Roadmap Construct • Fire Weather • Hydrology • Aviation • Severe Weather • Winter Weather • Marine • Tropical Weather • Climate • Air Quality • Space Weather • Tsunami • Sensible Wx & Health Impacts • Emerging areas (e. g. energy, ecosystems) NWS Strategic Plan Service Science Areas Research Thrusts • Observations • Data Assimilation • Forecasting: • Models • Post Processing • Human Aided • Dissemination • Decision Support • Verification & Metrics • Customer Outreach, Feedback Technologies • Social Sciences ID Next Generation Enabling Capabilities Research Partners Test Beds /Service Proving Grounds S&T Research to Operations • Universities • Government Labs • Private Industry Protection of Life and Property Enhanced National Economy 4
Service Area Goals and Research Thrusts Science Service Area Key Products/ Services S&T Goal 2025 Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24 hr Lead Time (LT) Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1 hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Air Quality Predictions Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter Space Weather Geomagnetic Storm Warnings >90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind Tsunami Warnings <5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models Emerging Areas/ Surface Wx Wind Forecasts 1 km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems 5
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Potential Societal Benefits Service Area Improvements Potential Benefits Tropical Cyclone, Track, Intensity, Precip Forecasts Reduce $10 B/yr in trop cyclone damage Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings Reduce $1 B/yr in damage from severe wx Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts Reduce $60 B/yr losses from air traffic delays Flood and River Predictions Reduce $4. 3 B/yr in flood damage Air Quality Predictions Reduce mortality from 50, 000/yr from poor AQ Space Weather Reduce $365 M/yr in losses (power industry) Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Ecosys, etc Reduce $7 B/yr in losses (drought) 6
Tropical Cyclone Roadmap Vision R&D Needs and Opportunities • Cause of rapid intensity changes Increasing Impact • Key observations needed for improved forecasting • Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed conditions Finer scale and highly accurate track, intensity and inundation forecasts that trigger appropriate responses resulting in reduced loss of life and economic impacts • Predictability limits • Vortex-convection-environment interactions • Microphysics of convection at high-resolution • Social Science • Wind radii forecasts • Track forecast to 7 days • Wind& surge impact • Detailed stormsurge/inundation forecasts guidance to 36 -hr • Improved rapid • Improved tropical cyclone precip estimates 2009 10 11 to 5 days POD and FAR 13 14 15 Time • Warnings and forecasts prior to cyclogenesis • Communication of accurate, street level evacuation intensity change, 12 • Halved track & intensity forecast errors 16 25 7
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Enabling Capabilities Goals § Integrated observing and analysis system § Coupled, integrated environmental modeling: data assimilation, prediction, post-processing (e. g. ensembles) § Next Generation 4 -D Forecast System ü Optimize for high impact events ü Forecaster decision support tools, applications with governmentcentric information architectures ü Dynamic training capabilities § 4 D Digital Weather Information Database (WIDB) § Transformed dissemination/communication/outreach capabilities § Incorporated social sciences strategies in research and operations 8
Integrated Observation/Analysis System Current Individual Systems Public Private Universities Radar Satellite In-Situ Upper Air Etc Analysis Inventory systems, and metadata standards Assess interdependencies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality Strategies National Mesonet Network of Networks Future Weather Information Database Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR) Global Systems Multisensor platforms Optimization with OSEs, OSSEs Standards, Architectures, Protocols Maximize value of investment Open Architecture
Coupled, Integrated Environmental Modeling System Atmospheric Model Earth System Models Ocean Components Dynamics Physics Land Surface Air Quality Chemistry Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Space Couplers Hydrology Ecosystem Ensembles Etc Weather Industry 4 D Data Assimilation e. g. 4 D Var, En. KF, hybrids Resolution Changes, Downscaling Post Processing Bias Correction, Statistical Methods, Ensembles Product Generation Verification WIDB 10
Next Generation 4 -D Forecast System Optimized for High Impact Weather Events/Uncertainty Custo Thres mer holds AR Satellite D In-Situ RA s mble Mode e ls Ens Post. Processing Custo Thres mer R h DA Satellite olds RA In-Situ s mble Mod e els Ens Post. Processing What matters? Intelligence Augmentation Smart Tools NWS Forecaster Today System Algorithms Artificial Intelligence Where can I add value today? Where’s the uncertainty? NWS Forecaster Future
Next Generation 4 -D Forecast System High Impact Weather Events (Notional) User Input NWS informs public decision makers for public safety, security 12
Next Generation 4 D Forecast System Decision Support Services Common operating picture to help aid forecasters identify weather threats with the most impact on airspace operations
Next Generation 4 -D Forecast System: Decision Support Emergency Managers NWS Forecasters Weather Information Database supports interoperability— common operating picture Advanced Communication/Collaboration Capabilities IMETS Responders Emergency Operations Center 14
Weather Information Database Weather Industry Observations Private Industry Private Sector Forecasting Numerical Prediction Systems Satellites Radars Postprocessed Probabilistic Output WIDB Cube NWS Forecaster Aircraft Automated Forecast Systems Surface Forecast Integration Soundings Decision Support Systems Custom Graphic Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Governmental Decision Making 15
Transform Dissemination/ Communication/Outreach Architectures for NWS Users GIS Pros at NWS GIO/GPMO GIS Team NWS Web Team IRIS Legacy Storage Legacy Apps Geodatabase AWIPS Offices using AWIPS work stations Climate Outlook NDFD Watches/warnings Radar Hurricane Tracks NWS Shapefiles NOAA GIS data Internal Help Desk/ “Tier 1 Support” Customer Help Desk Internet Access Data in OGC Compliant format WIDB Geospatial Database WFS Etc Firewall WCS Geospatial Reference Information Government Agencies General Public Private Weather Industry WMS GIS Apps: NWS Support, Admin. & Mgmt. KML 16
Incorporate Social Sciences Strategies in Research & Operations High • Probabilistic Forecasts • Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Public Social Science Infusion Weather Industry Public Educated on use of Decision Makers probabilistic guidance to ensure best response Private Sector Low Sophisticated Users Today Incorporating Forecasters Uncertainty for Managing Risk and Human Factors, Making Decisions Communicating Uncertainty Time 17
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Roadmap Schedule, Milestones, and Status PHASE I ü ü Establish Framework Team Framework Brief to Corporate Board PHASE II ü ü ü q Roadmap plenary workshop Capstone Group completes initial draft Update for NOAA/NWS leadership (Progressive updates. Next update by August 2009) Focus Area Teams complete robust outlines (briefing) 17 Nov 2008 10 Dec 2008 21 Dec 2008 3 Feb 2009 27 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 30 Jun 2009 PHASE III • q q q Stakeholder input compiled Oct 2009 Draft Capstone Document Nov 2009 Full Documentation of Focus Area Plans (10 -14 pp each) Nov 2009 All S&T Roadmap documents published early 2010 Status 6/15 ü § q Completed In progress Milestone 18
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Questions 19