NRC Perspective on NGA-East Project NGA-East Stakeholder Workshop

NRC Perspective on NGA-East Project NGA-East Stakeholder Workshop Dr. Annie Kammerer, P. E. 1

NRC Needs • Increased accuracy of PSHA in CEUS • Properly capturing and understanding uncertainty – Separating and capturing aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty • Increased buy-in from seismic community • Improved regulatory stability 2

Project Motivation • Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPSs) are generally the single largest source of uncertainty in seismic hazard evaluations • NGA (west) project reduced discrepancies between relationships 3

Project Motivation • Clear benefits to framework used in NGA – Common and transparent data base and assumptions – Broad buy-in from seismic community • The state of ground motion prediction in the CEUS is much less certain than in the WUS – The need for a structured process is even more acute 4

NRC Constraints • Due to nuclear renaissance, today’s NRC is highly product, schedule, and budget oriented • Several additional NRC research projects need results from NGA-East as input • Critical that project remains on time and on budget 5

Motivation for Development Project • To develop scope, schedule and cost – Provide NRC understanding of program resource needs and outcomes – Facilitate participation by others • Collect and incorporate stakeholder input to develop broad-based support for ultimate product • Develop cooperative management and funding agreements with other stakeholders 6

Keys for Success • Strive to define critical technical issues and research needs early • Establish priorities and develop technical framework • Ensure that appropriate researchers are included • Develop cooperative managerial framework with other stakeholders • Develop realistic schedule and budget • No expectation of pro-bono work 7

Summary • Improved ground motion prediction equations needed for CEUS • NGA program provided framework with high probability of success • Initiated development program to define scope, schedule and cost of NGA-East • Develop cooperative funding arrangement with stakeholder agencies 8