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Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics & Sources Dr. James Gillan Department of Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics & Sources Dr. James Gillan Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment Northern Ireland Central Statistics Office Business Statistics Seminar 26 th February 2008

Northern Ireland Business Statistics • Produced under National Statistics Protocols – “The primary aim Northern Ireland Business Statistics • Produced under National Statistics Protocols – “The primary aim of National Statistics is to provide an accurate, up-to-date, comprehensive and meaningful picture of the economy and society to support the formulation and monitoring of economic and social policies by government at all levels” • Primarily conducted by DETI (NISRA staff) • Collected under the Statistics of Trade and Employment (NI) Order 1988 – Statutory – Confidential • Statistics Advisory Committee consulted on Burden on Business obligations

Northern Ireland Economic Statistics Labour Market Labour Force Employee jobs: Employee Jobs Census Employee Northern Ireland Economic Statistics Labour Market Labour Force Employee jobs: Employee Jobs Census Employee jobs: QES Macroeconomic Index of Production Index of Services Index of Construction Business Register Annual Business Inquiry Manufacturing Exports Service Exports Claimants Redundancy Business Activity Northern Ireland Regional GVA Research & Development Innovation Earnings NI Regional Data

Comparison of LFS and QNHS • LFS • QNHS • Use ILO Definitions • Comparison of LFS and QNHS • LFS • QNHS • Use ILO Definitions • HH survey with wave structure • Weighted to population (age/sex/region) • 3, 250 HH’s per qtr (0. 5% of all) • Sampling error – higher • Use ILO Definitions • HH survey with wave structure • Weighted to population (age/sex/region) • 39, 000 HH’s per qtr (2. 7%) • Sampling error – lower – Employment CV ~1. 3% – Unemployment CV ~8. 3% – Employment CV ~0. 4% – Unemployment CV ~2. 4% • 16+ population (school age) • Calendar Qtrs, Rolling-Monthly & Rolling Annual data • Quarterly from Spring ‘ 95 • 15+ population (school age) • Seasonal Quarter data

Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment Ro. I figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in schoolleaving age.

Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment Ro. I figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in schoolleaving age.

Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) • The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) is a business survey Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) • The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) is a business survey that has been carried out in Northern Ireland since 1978 and provides estimates of the number of employee jobs in NI. • QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons with jobs. For example, a person holding both a full-time job and a part -time job, or someone with two part-time jobs, will be counted twice. • The QES has a sample size of approximately 5, 400 and covers all public sector bodies, all private sector firms with 25 or more employees and a sample of the remainder. • The sample size has been chosen in order that estimates of total employee jobs should be accurate to within +/- 1% of the Northern Ireland Census of Employment total. • No directly comparable Republic of Ireland employee jobs measure.

Public Sector jobs in NI and Ireland (Indexed): 1997 - 2007 Sources: Republic of Public Sector jobs in NI and Ireland (Indexed): 1997 - 2007 Sources: Republic of Ireland: Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment UK: ONS

Proportion of all jobs in Public Sector in UK, NI and Ireland: 1997 - Proportion of all jobs in Public Sector in UK, NI and Ireland: 1997 - 2007 Sources: Republic of Ireland: Quarterly National Household Survey & Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment UK: ONS

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) • UK-wide sample survey that provides a Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) • UK-wide sample survey that provides a wide range of information on hourly, weekly and annual earnings by gender, work patterns, age, industry and occupation inter alia 1% sample of N. Ireland PAYE, completed by employer only. 2, 500 businesses; C. 6, 000 persons; response rate of 97%; CV 1. 5% median gross f/t wages • Replaced New Earnings Survey in 2004 to address weaknesses in design: Improved coverage (flows on/off PAYE) Results weighted to LFS employee population by age, sex, occupation, region Median values used in preference to mean to report earnings Provides estimates of basic and total paid hours worked. LFS for actual hrs. Carried out by Office of National Statistics (ONS) in Great Britain, and by Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland

Comparability between NI and Ro. I earnings statistics The National Employment Survey (NES) is Comparability between NI and Ro. I earnings statistics The National Employment Survey (NES) is currently the most comparable annual survey of earnings (c. 8, 000 selected enterprises) to ASHE in the Republic of Ireland. SIC/NACE and occupational coverage is broadly comparable. Differences include sample design, grossing (QNHS SIC); The NES 2006 reference period was at March 2006, while the ASHE reference period is always April of each year. While the NES is being conducted annually from 2006 onwards, an annual time-series does not currently exist. The NES is moving to an October reference period which may further reduce comparability Caution if using earlier surveys for comparisons

Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in the private sector in NI and Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in the private sector in NI and UK, 1997 -2007 * The introduction of methodological changes to improve the quality of ASHE data has resulted in discontinuities in trends.

Median gross weekly earnings (£) for full-time employees, 2006 UK and Ireland Median gross weekly earnings (£) for full-time employees, 2006 UK and Ireland

Northern Ireland Regional Accounts • The first official estimates of GDP for NI were Northern Ireland Regional Accounts • The first official estimates of GDP for NI were published in 1965. • Official and consistent estimates covering all UK regions did not appear until 1977. • More recently the production of the UK “Regional” Accounts has been the responsibility of the ONS. – – Gross Value Added (-2006), by Industry to 2004 Gross Disposable Household Income (-2005) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-2001) Individual Consumption Expenditure (-1999) http: //www. statistics. gov. uk/Stat. Base/Product. asp? vlnk=7359 • Public Expenditure information for NI and the UK published by HM Treasury http: //www. hm- treasury. gov. uk/economic_data_and_tools/finance_spending_statistics/pes_publications/pespub_index. cfm

DETI ABI and CSO Sectoral Inquiries • ABI • CIP, ASI, CBC…. . • DETI ABI and CSO Sectoral Inquiries • ABI • CIP, ASI, CBC…. . • Meets Structural Business Reg • Coverage Part Agriculture; Production, Construction, Services excluding Finance, No public sector (with exceptions) • All 20+ Manufacturing • Sample by SIC Section and Size band • 4, 500 Reporting Units, c 1% • Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU Employment (Sept. ) and costs, Limited expenses breakdown Trade in services; e-commerce • UK consistent, ONS modelling • • • Meets Structural Business Reg Similar coverage (Finance) All 20+ Manufacturing CIP total sample size 5, 000 ASI total sample size 25, 000 Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU Employment (Sept. ) and costs, family business; ecommerce • More detailed LU financial info • Includes exports and imports • Much more detailed business expenditure information

NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001 -2006) NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001 -2006)

NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001 -2006) NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001 -2006)

NI and ROI Trade (HMRC and NI Manufacturing Exports Survey) NI and ROI Trade (HMRC and NI Manufacturing Exports Survey)

Exporting NI Services - Ro. I Exporting NI Services - Ro. I

Comparison of Research and Development (R&D) in Northern Ireland (NI) Vs Republic of Ireland Comparison of Research and Development (R&D) in Northern Ireland (NI) Vs Republic of Ireland (ROI) • R&D in Northern Ireland R&D in Republic of Ireland • Annual surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and Government Expenditure (GERD). • Biennial surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and R&D in the public sector • The Northern Ireland R&D survey has been carried out annually since 2001 and previously was conducted triennially in 1993, 1996 and 1999. • Most recent carried out for year 2005 but provisional estimates are available for 2006 • R&D survey consists of all businesses thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest ROI survey consists of 3, 750 firms • • Most recent figures related to 2006 R&D survey consists of all businesses thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest NI survey consists of 794 firms.

Sources Republic of Ireland: Forfás Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment Sources Republic of Ireland: Forfás Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment

Research and Development Expenditure Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D Trend in R&D spend (BERD) Research and Development Expenditure Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D Trend in R&D spend (BERD) as % of GDP, 2005 or latest available year as % of GVA 2001 -2006 Source: ONS and DETI Source: OECD Factbook 2007: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics BERD – Business Northern Ireland figure, Total Expenditure on R&D as % of GVA 2006

Community Innovation Survey The UK and Republic of Ireland innovation surveys were completed as Community Innovation Survey The UK and Republic of Ireland innovation surveys were completed as part of the EU Community Innovation set of surveys and use the Eurostat core questionnaire used by the EU 27. Results were collected within the UK by the Department of Trade and Industry and in the Republic of Ireland by Forfás. Data on a variety of innovation activities was gathered obeying the strict international methodological guidelines as laid out in the OECD Oslo Manual, and core industrial sectors covered by the EU surveys were firms with 10 or more employees in the following SIC/NACE sectors: 10 -14 15 -37 40 -41 51 60 -64 65 -67 72 74. 3 Mining and Quarrying; Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Wholesale Trade Transport, Storage and Communication Financial Services Software Consultancy and Supply Engineering and Technical Consultancy Technical Testing and Analysis Please note that the following additional sectors were covered in the UK survey, but have been excluded from NI and UK results in the following slides to allow for direct comparability: 45 Construction 50 Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 52 Retail trade 55 Hotels and restaurants 70 Real estate 71 Rental of machinery and equipment 73 R&D Remainder of SIC 74 (i. e. excl. 74. 2 and 74. 3) – Other Business Activities

Innovation active rates (per cent of businesses) for respondents to the Community Innovation Survey, Innovation active rates (per cent of businesses) for respondents to the Community Innovation Survey, 2002 -04 * Ireland results are provisional. Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch

Innovation active rates (%) by business size and Industry and Services sectors, 2002 -04 Innovation active rates (%) by business size and Industry and Services sectors, 2002 -04 Business Size 10 -49 50 -249 250+ All businesses Industry Services SIC C-E SIC I, J, 51, 72, 74. 2, 74. 3 Ireland 47. 2 65. 3 75. 1 52. 2 60. 9 43. 8 NI 43. 7 50. 8 74. 1 45. 7 47. 4 44. 2 United Kingdom 39. 9 52. 6 62. 5 43. 0 44. 4 41. 8 Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch

Conclusions • NI economic and labour market statistics provision compares favourably against UK regions Conclusions • NI economic and labour market statistics provision compares favourably against UK regions – No regional prices, limited domestic consumption statistics – Regional Accounts re-engineering • Potential for greater NI-ROI comparability – – • • Inherent difficulties in national vs devolved comparisons Greater North-South dimension for existing series, metadata Trade, productivity measures, business costs need development Burden on business Allsopp Review EU standards SIC 2007 The user view