North Korea - prospects for peace Tim Beal Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand United Nations Association, Wellington Thurs 12 July 2007 UNA Wellington 12 July 2007
Setting the scene • Thanks • Title – Why not US: Prospects for Peace? • A brace of characters UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 2
This (real) gentleman UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 3
Met a fictitious one in 1757 • The occasion? • Admiral John Byng’s execution • Fictitious one: Voltaire’s Candide UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 4
John Byng and Candide • Byng is executed – in this country, it is wise to kill an admiral from time to encourage the others • Byng was not close enough to the French fleet, but Candide asked – Weren’t the French as far from the English, as the English from the French? UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 5
US - NK – US • Just as NK is as far from US as US is from NK, so negotiation has two sides • Media exclusively focuses on denuclearisation of NK • What does NK think? • Two aspects UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 6
NK on denuclearisation • Not just NK but SK and other countries (i. e. US) in respect of Korean peninsula – US nuclear weapons in SK land waters, and long-range weapons elsewhere • Nuclear programme to – Deter US from attack – Force US to drop ‘hostility’ UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 7
Hostility • NK wants US to accept peaceful coexistence • Lift sanctions – Large responsibly for devastation of economy • Hundreds of thousands of deaths • Malnutrition • Barrier to rehabilitation and development • In effect, adhere to UN charter • Let us ask Candidian awkward questions UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 8
The importance of questions • Often it is the asking of questions that is important – The answer falls into place • Similar to the little boy observing that the emperor was naked • Power does not like questions UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 9
The portrayal of things • Events and issues are often portrayed as if the received interpretation is unquestionable • Vital to ask ‘naive’ questions • Such as? UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 10
Examples • Which country threatens peace, NK or US? • Which country threatens the other, NK or US? • Does US have a moral right to nuclear weapons denied to NK? • If we are concerned about nuclear weapons, should we not look at the country which has 10, 000 rather than the country which has UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 11 none?
In this spirit let us examine some issues • NK, US and the UN – NK Missile tests July 2006 – NK Nuclear test October 2006 – US allegations about UNDP in NK January 2007 • BDA affair • Agreement of 13 February 2007 • Prospects for peace UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 12
Forthcoming article • December issue of NZ Journal of Asian Studies UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 13
Tests >resolutions • Both sets of tests led to ‘unanimous’ condemnatory resolutions, imposing sanctions • Unanimous is misleading • Opposition from China and Russia but veto is out of fashion • Water down and then often ignore UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 14
South Korea • Also opposed but – Does not have a veto – Cannot openly defy US • Caught in dilemma and does contradictory things • Eg suspends aid but continues Kaesong Industrial Complex UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 15
Missile tests • July 2006 >>Japanese sponsored resolution 1695 UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 16
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Candide would be bemused • Reaffirming that proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, as well as their means of delivery, constitutes a threat to international peace and security, • Why ‘proliferation’ rather than ‘possession’ – Once you ask the question you know the answer – US possesses, US enemies proliferate UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 18
Why concern at NK ballistic missiles? • Expressing grave concern at the launch of ballistic missiles by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), given the potential of such systems to be used as a means to deliver nuclear, chemical or biological payloads, UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 19
Candide’s questions • Don’t all missiles (even US ones) have this potential? • Why specify ‘ballistic missiles’ rather than missiles? – NK missiles are ballistic, US tends to employ non-ballistic (i. e. cruise) missiles – Britain alone has up to 2000 Storm Shadow and unknown number of Tomahawks UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 20
Moratorium • Registering profound concern at the DPRK’s breaking of its pledge to maintain its moratorium on missile launching, • Wasn’t this moratorium (Clinton 1999) selfimposed and contingent on US negotiations on issue continuing? – Bush had broken off negotiations UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 21
Missile tests • Not illegal • Very common • For instance in period June-November 2006 many countries conducted tests of long range missiles – Minor tests and exercises not reported • Unless NK… UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 22
Tests • • • France India Pakistan Russia US – 3 tests of Minuteman missiles across Pacific • UK – No major tests but decided to replace Trident UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 23
October nuclear test • UN condemnation replicated double standards of July • US currently does not conduct physical tests but may return to it • Developing new generation of nuclear weapons and delivery systems – Policy of first use • And the track record… UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 24
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Purpose of NK tests • Force US back into negotiations – In abeyance because of BDA affair • Combined with other factors was successful – Middle East – Mid-term elections • Negotiations were resumed and this led to Agreement of 13 February 2007 UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 26
BDA and UNDP affairs • This agreement was to implement the initial stages of the Joint Statement of 19 September 2005 • JS had been suspended by the Banco Delta Asia (BDA) affair • In Sept 2005 US Treasury designated BDA as a ‘primary money laundering concern’ under Section 311 of the USA Patriot Act UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 27
BDA charges • Treasury claimed that BDA was laundering ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’ for NK – Drugs, counterfeit cigarettes, counterfeit currency • Produced no evidence, even in private to SK or China • Audit by Ernst & Young cleared BDA UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 28
Reasons for BDA action • Derail Joint Statement/ Six Party Talks • Warning or test against China – Exercise of extraterritoriality against Chinese bank on Chinese territory • Practice at using Patriot Act against other enemies eg Iran UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 29
Effect of BDA • Froze $25 m NK money in BDA accounts • More important, expelled NK from international banking system – ‘financial sanctions’ UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 30
Treasury/State conflict • From late 2006 to date there has been a battle between Treasury and State • Rice apparently got Bush’s agreement to negotiate with NK and lift financial sanctions • Talks in Berlin January 2007>>Agreement of 13 February – Financial sanctions to be lifted in 30 days UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 31
Treasury down but not out • Treasury forced to unfreeze accounts but barred BDA from US banking system – Ensuring sanctions remained • Four months struggle by State to lift sanctions so Agreement could go ahead • Successful? – For the moment yes… UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 32
Meanwhile, UNDP affair • January 2007 Deputy U. S. Ambassador to UN Mark Wallace alleged that NK was diverting hundreds of millions of dollars from UNDP operations there – Also complained that UNDP was paying local staff in hard currency • Wallace – Protégé of John Bolton UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 33
UNDP rebuts charges • If it paid in won it would need to buy that with hard currency, so effect would be the same • It was only spending a few million in NK each year UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 34
Ban Ki-moon • Ban widely seen as ”America’s man” immediately order external audits on UN operation in NK • 1 June Ban announces audit clears UNDP • US returns to attack with fresh charges UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 35
Charges flimsy • One was NK had spent money on embassy property abroad at same time as UNDP had been spending money in NK – But currency is fungible • ‘To Mr. Wallace’s charge that the program had transferred $7 million to its counterpart agency in the North Korean government, the program said that the amount actually had been $175, 000 and that most of it had gone for workshops on vegetable growing and seed processing ‘ UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 36
Even ridiculous • Most risible was complaint that UNDP had funded a project on arms control and disarmament, and supplied books • The one the Americans singled out was… UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 37
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End of Western civilization? • Jacques E. C. Hymans – Smith College, Massachusetts • Cambridge University Press – £ 17. 99 UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 39
Prospects for peace • Positions of governments • Power of governments – Rogue elements UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 40
Japan • Wants crisis to continue in order to facilitate remilitarisation (and perhaps nuclearisation) • Uses ‘abduction issue’ – NK wants Japan out of Six Party Talks – SK, (Russia, China) and even Rice have expressed annoyance at Japanese UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 41
China and Russia • Want peaceful resolution • Want NK to survive and thrive UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 42
SK • Wants peaceful resolution • Wants NK to survive, develop and eventually unify with SK • Even opposition GNP softening its line on NK UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 43
NK • Peaceful coexistence with US – Removal of US military threat • Lifting of sanctions and barriers to economic development UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 44
US • Much more difficult to pin down • Ambivalent, incoherent, fluctuating – Depends on who has bush’s ear at any particular time UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 45
Power of governments • Unlikely that there are ‘rogue elements’ to disrupt policy – China, Russia (for war) – Japan (for peace) • However Abe unpopular and Upper House election 29 July • The Koreas? UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 46
NK • No doubt some/many in military would prefer present situation to continue or are worried about danger of détente – Giving up nuclear deterrent is no easy thing • Cf discussion in Britain • No sign of effective opposition to Kim Jong Il UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 47
Kim Jong Il • How long will he continue? • 65 • Reports of bad health - diabetes, heart disease, operations • However, photo of meeting with Chinese FM on 3 July indicates he is well, and has lost weight UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 48
Kim and Chinese FM Yang Jiechi UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 49
South Korea • Military is strong but western observers discount possibility of coup – Incidents may be another matter • Defusing of tension will disadvantage right in forthcoming Presidential elections • Roh keep to have a summit with Kim – Rumour that Kim will soon visit Kaesong UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 50
United States • Bush and ‘Strategic incoherence’ • Who speaks for US government • State or Treasury? • Bush, Cheney, Rice…. ? UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 51
‘ mixed signals’ on Terrorism List • In Feb Agreement US agreed to remove NK from terrorism list • 27 April press conference with Abe Shinzo Bush said that dependent on Japanese satisfaction on abductee issue – Ie never • However Rice told Abe that abductions ‘no bar to delisting’ UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 52
Prospects for peace • • Mainly depends on US Washington is unpredictable Depends on who has the ear of the president There also two landmines – Financial sanctions – Heavy enriched uranium UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 53
Financial sanctions • No certain that they have really been removed • Treasury is still powerful • NK has hinted that it is watching progress, but is for the moment giving Hill the benefit of the doubt UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 54
HEU • Ostensible reason for Bush tearing up Agreed Framework that Clinton had signed • Claimed NK had clandestine uranium weapons programme • Hill has backtracked somewhat but difficult to see how NK (or Hill) can satisfy US right – Kumchangri solution? UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 55
Process is underway • Six Party Talks due to reconvene in Beijing on 18 July • NK has reacted quickly to the ‘settlement of BDA issue’ – IAEA visited Pyongyang following day • Considering accelerating suspension of nuclear programme – NK has issued a warning UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 56
Prospects • Bush - Unstable, lame duck administration, beset with difficulties • Washington full of important people, in and out of office, who oppose settlement with NK • And then there are the landmines… • Prospects are problematic UNA Wellington 12 July 2007 57
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