North Central River Forecast Center An Overview of

North Central River Forecast Center: An Overview of Operations and Mission Wisconsin River Post-Flood Meeting November 16, 2010 1

Outline • NCRFC Mission and Products • Forecast process – Meteorological driving data – Hydrologic model • Daily Analysis • Calibration • September 2010 Forecasts • NWS Products 2

NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services This initiative will develop and deliver valued water resources forecasts to save lives and properties, manage water resources, and enhance America’s economy. Some of the benefits will apply to: • • • Irrigation Power Generation River Commerce Protection of threatened and endangered species Enhanced aquatic habitats Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management 3

Office and Staff 13 NWS River Forecast Centers • One of 13 River Forecast Centers in the USA • Staff of 19 forecasters and administrative personnel • Operates 365 days a year, 18 -24 hours a day 4

Area of Responsibility • 1117 sub-watersheds (155 in Wisconsin) • 33 forecast groups • 3 Major Basins • Mississippi River • Great Lakes • Hudson Bay 5

Forecast Services Water Quality Support 6

Flash Flood Guidance 7

Forecast Hydrograph 8

Long Range Probabilistic Products 9

Outline • NCRFC Mission and Products • Forecast process – Meteorological data – Hydrologic model • Daily Analysis • Calibration • Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project 10

Precipitation Surface observations Point precipitation Mean areal precipitation • Hourly to daily accumulations • Manual and automated observers • Quality controlled 12

Precipitation Radar Estimates Gridded precipitation Mean areal precipitation • 27 USA radars & 8 Canadian radars • Hourly grids • Bias corrected based on surface observations • Quality controlled 13

Precipitation Forecast • Gridded • 6 -hour accumulation • 5 days available 14

Air Temperature Observed & Forecast • Daily max/min • 7 days available • Soon will be gridded 15

Outline • NCRFC Mission and Products • Forecast process – Meteorological data – Hydrologic model • Daily Analysis • Calibration • Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project 16

Hydrologic Model • NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System • Several models are run for each sub-watershed – – Snow accumulation & melt Soil moisture & runoff River routing Reservoirs 17

Model Schematics Soil Moisture/Runoff Model Snow Model 18

Model Analysis 19

Model Analysis • Forecaster can modify – Precipitation type – Amount and areal extent of snow cover – Melt rate 20

Model Analysis • Forecaster can modify – Amount of water in any of the conceptual storages – Frost index – Amount of rain/melt – Amount of runoff 21

Model Analysis • Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis. • Goal: to accurately simulate streamflow while maintaining reasonable model states. • Only make adjustments when necessary and justified. 22

Model Calibration • Calibration period 19482004 • Snow, soil moisture, routing, and reservoir models all require calibration • “Subjective” function is how well we simulate the hydrograph at the outlet. • Could be used to calibrate thresholds for this project. 23

How did we do last September? 24

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How will I know when high water is coming? http: //water. weather. gov/ahps/ 30

Long Range Outlooks 31

Long Range Outlooks (cont) 32

Snow Information http: //www. nohrsc. nws. gov/ 33

1 -5 Day NWS Precipitation Forecasts… http: //www. hpc. ncep. noaa. gov/qpf 2. shtml 34

River Forecasts http: //water. weather. gov/ahps/ 35

http: //www. crh. noaa. gov/ncrfc/content/water/fop. php 36

Specialized Products… QPF Ensembles 37

Specialized Products… Flow Forecasts : This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision. : Refer to your local WFO for the latest official river forecast. : : North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen, MN : : Mon Nov 15 15: 41: 00 2010 : : Wolf R New London Adj Flood Stage ft. E NEWW 3 1114 Z DH 18/DC 1115/QRIP/DIH 06 : 6 -Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs). E 1 2. 025/ 2. 015/ 2. 000/ 2. 010/. E NEWW 3 1115 Z DH 18/DC 1115/QRICB/DIH 06 : 6 -Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs). E 1 2. 029/ 2. 061/ 2. 116/ 2. 196/ 2. 275/ 2. 338/ 2. 397/ 2. 452/. E 1 2. 494/ 2. 529/ 2. 558/ 2. 580/ 2. 597/ 2. 611/ 2. 622/ 2. 629/. E 1 2. 633/ 2. 628/ 2. 610/ 2. 584/ 2. 555/ 2. 524/ 2. 493/ 2. 461/. E 1 2. 430/ 2. 400/ 2. 371/ 2. 343/ : : Little Wolf R Royalton Adj Flood Stage ft. E ROYW 3 1114 Z DH 18/DC 1115/QRIP/DIH 06 : 6 -Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs). E 1 0. 485/ 0. 572/ 0. 606/. E ROYW 3 1115 Z DH 18/DC 1115/QRICB/DIH 06 : 6 -Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs). E 1 0. 640/ 0. 666/ 0. 684/ 0. 692/ 0. 693/ 0. 686/ 0. 672/ 0. 653/. E 1 0. 630/ 0. 603/ 0. 573/ 0. 541/ 0. 512/ 0. 483/ 0. 456/ 0. 432/. E 1 0. 413/ 0. 398/ 0. 386/ 0. 376/ 0. 367/ 0. 360/ 0. 354/ 0. 348/. E 1 0. 343/ 0. 338/ 0. 334/ 0. 330/ 38

Specialized Products… Objective Products 39

Specialized Products… Inundation Mapping 40

Questions? NWS/North Central River Forecast Center Brian. Connelly@noaa. gov 952 -368 -2540 Steve. Buan@noaa. gov 952 -368 -2545 41