Norges Bank Executive Board meeting 16 March 2006 1
Norges Bank Growth projections 2006 GDP growth. Per cent 2007 Source: Norges Bank 2
Norges Bank CPI/HICP core 1) 12 -month change. January 2002 – January 2006 Euro area UK US Sweden Japan 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food Euro area and UK: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Sweden; : CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Source: Eco. Win Eurostat 3
Norges Bank Actual and expected key rates 1) UK Sweden Euro area 14 March 2006 24 January 2006 US 1)Not adjusted for credit risk Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank 4
Norges Bank Yields on 10 -year government bonds. 2 January 2004 – 14 March 2006 Norway US Germany Japan Sources: Norges Bank and Eco. Win 5
Norges Bank Developments on stock markets internationally 2 January 2002 = 100. 2. January 2002 – 14 March 2006 Source: Eco. Win 6
Norges Bank Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 – 14 March 2006 27 October IR 3/05 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 7
Norges Bank Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. 3 January 2004 – 14 March 2006 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6 years Source: Eco. Win/ NYMEX 8
Norges Bank US commercial crude oil stocks Full capacity In million barrels 2006 Strategic reserves Highest and lowest values 2000 -2004 2005 2004 Source: EIA 9
Norges Bank Natural gas prices USD per 1000 Sm 3. Monthly and quarterly figures. January 2003 – February 2006 USA UK Norwegian export price Average Statoil and Hydro Sources: Eco. Win, ICE, NYMEX, Statistics Norway, Statoil, Norsk Hydro and Norges Bank 10
Norges Bank 3 -month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2008 I-442), (right-hand scale) Weighted 3 month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 2)The last observation is the average for 1 - 15 March 2006. 1) 27 October 2005 14 March 2006 24 January 2006 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 11
Norges Bank CPI-ATE 1) Total and by supplier sector 2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 3/05. 12 -month change. Per cent. January 2004 - February 2006 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1)A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. Bank's calculations 2) Norges Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 12
Norges Bank Indicators of underlying inflation 12 -month change. Per cent. January 2002 – February 2006 CPI Weighted median Trimmed mean CPI-ATE 1) 1)A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. Source: Statistics Norway 13
Norges Bank Number of unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes In thousands. Seasonally adjusted Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour 14
Norges Bank Annual wage growth Per cent. 1996 – 2005 Manufacturing white collar workers Commercial and savings banks Manufacturing employees Construction Hotel and restaurant Source: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements 15
Norges Bank Household trend indicator Unadjusted figures. 99 Q 1 – 06 Q 1 Total Own financial situation Norwegian economy Source: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank 16
Norges Bank House prices Percentage change on same month previous year. January 1998 – February 2006 Source: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) 17
Norges Bank Housing starts Area in 1000 m². Seasonally adjusted and trend. January 2000 – January 2006 Trend Seasonally adjusted Source: Statistics Norway 18
Norges Bank Commercial building starts Area in 1000 m². January 2001 – December 2005 Seasonally adjusted 3 -month moving average Source: Statistics Norway 19
Norges Bank Credit growth Total debt mainland Norway (C 3). Domestic credit to households (C 2). 12 -month growth. Per cent Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C 3) Households (C 2) Total debt mainland Norway (C 3) Source: Norges Bank 20
Norges Bank Capacity utilisation Share of Norges Bank's regional network reporting that they have some or considerable problems in accommodating an increase in demand Source: Norges Bank 21
Norges Bank Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate 1) Per cent. 06 Q 1 – 09 Q 4 Baseline scenario Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate was reduced by a credit risk premium and technical difference of 0. 20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 27 Feb – 10 Mar 06. Source: Norges Bank 22
Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 1/06 Sight deposit rate CPI-ATE Norges Bank Importweighted exchange rate Output gap Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 23
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