Norges Bank Economic perspectives Charts Address by Governor Svein Gjedrem at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank on Thursday, 15 February 2007 1
Norges Bank Chart 1 Mainland GDP Annual growth. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2
Norges Bank Chart 2 Terms of trade Index. 2000=100 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3
Norges Bank Chart 3 Foreign workers on assignments in Norway Source: Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs 4
Norges Bank Chart 4 Productivity growth in the business sector Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 5
Norges Bank Chart 5 Short-term real interest rate Per cent Interval for neutral real interest rate Source: Norges Bank 6
Norges Bank Chart 6 Capacity utilisation in manufacturing Per cent Average 2006 Source: Statistics Norway 7
Norges Bank Chart 7 Inflation and capacity utilisation Per cent Projections Inflation Capacity utilisation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 8
Norges Bank Chart 8 Registered unemployment Per cent Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) 9
Norges Bank Chart 9 Norges Bank's key rate 1) Per cent 1) Projections from Inflation Report 3/06 Source: Norges Bank 10
Norges Bank Chart 10 Inflation Moving 10 -year average. Per cent Inflation target Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 11
Norges Bank Chart 11 Periods of rising house prices Number of years and total percentage increase. 1819 -2006 14 years 11 years 18 years 12 years 9 years 14 years Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 12
Norges Bank Chart 12 Total increase in real house prices At end-2005. Per cent Sources: Paul van den Noord (2006) OECD, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 13
Norges Bank Chart 13 House prices and disposable income Annual change. Average 1999 -2005 Real house prices UK Spain Australia France Norway Sweden US Germany Japan Real disposable income Sources: OECD, Reuters Eco. Win, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 14
Norges Bank Chart 14 Household saving and net lending Percentage of disposable income Saving Net lending Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 15
Norges Bank Chart 15 Long-term interest rates Per cent US Norway Source: Reuters Eco. Win 16
Norges Bank Chart 16 Population structure Number of households Growth Numbers in densely populated areas Per cent of total population Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 17
Norges Bank Chart 17 Household debt Percentage of disposable income Netherlands Denmark Norway UK Sweden Sources: OECD, Office for National Statistics (ONS), Sveriges Riksbank, 18 Danmarks Nationalbank, BIS and Norges Bank
Norges Bank Chart 18 House prices in Norway Real rise and fluctuations. Per cent Real rise Fluctuations Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 19
Norges Bank Chart 19 Actual and simulated house price In thousands of NOK per square meter Actual house price Simulated house price Sources: Norges Eiendomsmeglerforbund, Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening, 20 FINN. no, ECON og Norges Bank
Norges Bank Chart 20 Periods of falling house prices Number of years and total percentage decline. 1819 -2006 5 years 4 years 11 years 7 years 2 years Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 21
Norges Bank Chart 21 GDP Average growth. Per cent Sources: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and Norges Bank 22
Norges Bank Chart 22 Productivity growth Per cent Norway Nordic countries and EU 15 Average 1995 -2005 Mainland Norway, total Total Services and retail trade Sources: OECD, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 23
Norges Bank Chart 23 Inflation and unemployment Per cent Inflation Unemployment EU 15 Nordic countries Sources: Reuters Eco. Win, OECD and Norges Bank 24
Norges Bank Changes in the economic system 1. Division of responsibility in economic policy 2. Trade policy 3. Tax system 3. Financial and credit markets 25
Norges Bank 1. Division of responsibility in economic policy Monetary policy Price stability Fiscal policy Krone exchange rate Wage formation, structures and incentives Employment and growth 26
Norges Bank Chart 24 Start ups in the service sector Per cent of existing enterprises. Average 1998 -2001 Source: Eurostat 27
Norges Bank Chart 25 Female labour force participation Per cent Nordic countries Norway EU 15 Sources: OECD and Norges Bank 28
Norges Bank Chart 26 Persons on benefit and early retirement schemes Number of persons. 1995 – 2005 Early retirement schemes Vocational rehabilitation Sickness benefits Rehabilitation Disability schemes Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) 29
Norges Bank Chart 27 CO 2 emissions In billions of tonnes Asia and Oceania North America Europe Eurasia Source: Energy Administration Information (EIA) 30
Norges Bank Chart 28 Global mean temperature Trend and deviation from average 1951 – 1980, ºC Source: NASA – Goddard Institute for Space Studies 31
Norges Bank Economic perspectives 32
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