NOAA Tropical Program Delivering on the Promise of

NOAA Tropical Program Delivering on the Promise of Partnerships 64 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator & Director, National Weather Service March 1, 2010 Savannah, GA

Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Ø Constants & Changes Ø Our Partnerships Ø Areas of Emphasis NOAA is the national lead for hurricane forecasts and warnings Outline 2

Ø Science is a Priority for Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Constants & Changes President Obama Ø NOAA Climate Service Ø FY 11 Request: Ø$1 Billion for NWS Ø$4 M investment in Coastal Hazard Mitigation 3

Constants & Changes Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements HFIP Budget Ø FY 2009 Supplemental Ø $17 million supplemental spent Ø FY 2010 Appropriations Ø $23 million Ø FY 2011 President’s Budget Request Ø $23 million 4

Constants & Changes Ø Senate (S. 1485): Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements House/Senate Initiatives ØObjectives: ØImprove understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones ØDevelop resilient infrastructure ØMitigate impacts on coastal populations ØProvide training for next generation researchers and forecasters 5

Constants & Changes Ø House (H. R. 327): Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements House/Senate Initiatives ØObjectives: ØNOAA and NSF to set research objectives ØAssemble experts focused on: ØImproving tropical cyclone forecasting, resilient infrastructure, mitigating impacts on coastal communities, providing grants for research 6

Constants & Changes Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Ø Continued Use of Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks- Tool for information, education, and preparedness Ø Increasing use of high-res (T 382) CFS coupled model forecast runs Ø Changes for the 2010 Season Ø NHC and CPHC to provide greater lead time in Watches and Warnings Ø Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale becomes operational 7

Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Our Partnerships Ø NUOPC: Ø AF, Navy, NASA, Academia Ø Computing: Ø DOE, NSF Ø Research: Ø NSF, Navy, NCAR, NASA, Academia Ø Expediting successful transition of research to operations ØExample: success with advanced data assimilation testing led to changes in NCEP plans for operational data assimilation Ø Continuing to support Joint Hurricane Testbed, along with Developmental Test Center and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation 8

Our Partnerships Ø HFIP provides the basis for NOAA co-leading with NSF, Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Investment in the Future Navy and others a national effort to: Ø Develop a National Hurricane Research Agenda to provide new science Ø Apply new science and technology to the operational hurricane and storm surge warning and forecast problem Ø Significantly improve guidance to NHC (JTWC, CPHC) for hurricane track and intensity forecasts Significantly improve NOAA’s forecast services for tropical storms and hurricanes through improved hurricane forecast science and technology 9

Our Partnerships Ø UM/UW effort for NSF Science and Technology Center Ø US Navy, and DOI Minerals Management Service 3 Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Recent Engagement year National Ocean Partnership Program for Hurricane Intensity Research Ø $2. 5 M for first year Ø Penn State, Wisconsin, NCAR, others in area of High Resolution Modeling Ø ONR and NRL on Hurricane Forecast Technology Development Ø University of Miami, Florida International and University of South Alabama on Hurricane intensity research Ø Directed Research on ocean interaction (URI), ensemble data assimilation (CIRA/CSU) and cloud products (UMD) 10

Areas of Emphasis Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements Science and Technology Infusion: Reduce Track and Intensity Error HFIP Goal: reduction by 50% Ø Track error improvements Ø Advanced data assimilation techniques and use of airborne radar data to initialize vortex both showing great promise 11

NWS Strategic Plan 2035 Meeting the Nation’s Needs Hurricane Improvements The Future Ø Draft Undergoing Internal Review Ø Issue in Spring for Public Comment Ø Need your input! 12