NLA Early messages from the evidence base research Brendan Nevin NLA 19 February 2010
CONTEXT
Reduction in starts
Sales turnover
HOUSING DEMAND
Household growth
Population ageing
Local migration patterns
Spatial pattern of growth
Spatial pattern of growth
st Ea rro n to en 2006 2031 ed ak s ef ie ld Le es le e d al rd fo r Ki rk ld e W Ca ad Sh Br r m ef fie ld ha te as er th Ro y sle rn nc Do Ba rk Yo y lb Se ga on te ds hi r Ry e Sc eda ar bo le ro ug h ch m Ri Ha bl e av cs Lin cs ll Hu Lin Cr m Ha N NE ks f. Y or ng o di Ri Ratio of pensionable age population to working age population Spatial pattern of ageing 0. 60 0. 50 0. 40 0. 30 0. 20 0. 10 0. 00
HOUSING SUPPLY
Tenure
% of dwellings in Council Tax Band A by region, 2007 Source: ONS Neighbourhood Statistics, Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band, 2007
Non-decency rate by tenure, YH Source: English House Condition Survey, 2006
MARKET OUTCOMES
Indexed real prices, GDP and average GDP per household Sources: HM Land Registry, ONS, CLG
Average dwelling price mid 2009 Source: HM Land Registry, CLG.
Modelled average household income by MSOA, YH 2007 -08 Source: ONS Modelled income estimates at http: //www. neighbourhood. statistics. gov. uk/dissemination/
Vacancy rates by LSOA 2007/2008 Source: ONS, neighbourhood statistics at http: //www. neighbourhood. statistics. gov. uk/dissemination/. Note: some data is missing. Map shows vacancy rate in 2008, except where data is missing. In these areas, 2007 data has been substituted where available.
Vacancy rates by tenure Source: CLG Regional estimates from HSSA returns 2008
Vacancy rates by local authority, 2008 Source: CLG Regional estimates from HSSA returns 2008
Affordability
KEY ISSUES ARISING
Key Issues Arising • Tenure change and the growth of private renting; • Re-thinking affordability; • The implications of ageing population; • Links between housing and employment – Worklessness – Demographic and housing growth
Key Issues Arising • Stock condition and choice; • Facilitating supply; and • Managing the existing stock
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