Next Gen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide

Next. Gen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26 -30, 2007 Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning

It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods • • • Aviation and Aerospace represent 5. 5% of U. S. GDP If expanded to include related industries, it’s 9% of U. S. GDP Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy

2025 Next. Gen Concept Key Capabilities For full version, see: www. jpdo. aero • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations

Cost of Not Moving to Next. Gen Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand 175, 000 Flights Per Day 155, 000 135, 000 $100 Billion 115, 000 $40 Billion Uncons Comm Annual Economic Loss 95, 000 OEP H&S No Change 75, 000 55, 000 2004 2014 2024 Demand by Year 2034

Future Demand on the NAS Flights Boeing Forecast 1. 4 -3 X 3 X ~3 X te Biz shift Not to scale Enplanement Demand • 2% shift to micro jets e ~2 X Continue existing Biz shift • Smaller aircraft, more airports ea r l. A ina m er T 1 X 2004 2014 gh Hi s, tio Ra TAF yields h wt o passenger growth of Gr 1. 8 -2. 4 X in 2025 F TA n tio ate ec j er R o ow Pr s, L th atio ow Gr th R F) row TA FG ( TA st 2. 4 X re Fo a r. R ca Significant Alternate Shift • Increase passengers per flight • A 380, reverse RJ trend 2025 20? ?

2025 Next. Gen Capabilities: Capacity Impacts Airport Capacity Airspace Capacity Next. Gen Capabilities Maximize use of Available Airspace “Super Density” Airport Operations 2 X – 4 X Capacity Increase Distributed Airport Operations* Weather Information in Decision Loops Performance. Based Services Current Bad Wx Good Wx Net-Enabled Information Access “Equivalent Visual” Operations And more… 1. 2 X – 1. 4 X Capacity Increase Aircraft Trajectory. Based Ops Broad Area Precision Navigation *For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports And more… Nearly match Good Wx Capacity Current Good Wx Bad Wx

Next. Gen Performance: Dual Focus • Air Traffic Management – Improved Performance-based services • Area Navigation (RNAV) • Required Navigation Performance (RNP) • Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) • Improved Information Availability (SWIM) • Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture

Next. Gen Performance: Dual Focus • Aircraft and Operator Performance – Improved aircraft performance • Navigation and aircraft flight performance • Improved noise and emissions performance – Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety

Monitoring Performance against Next. Gen Targets National Plan Sets Next. Gen Objectives Enterprise Architecture: JPDO Develops Next. Gen Performance Assessment of Concepts – Sets Targets Performance Reference Model Agency Develops Near-Term Performance Goals Flight Plan Adjust Plan OEP Enterprise Architecture Portfolio Management JPDO Manages Outcomes against Plan Agency Executes Investments Monitors Performance

Demonstrated Metrics Experience ATO Dashboard

Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow NAS Today

Enabling Infrastructure to Support Next. Gen Capabilities Current Programs ERAM STARS/CARTS ADS-B TMA TFM-M SWIM DATA Comm Precision Navigation Network Enabled Weather Key Near-Term Investments OEP Solution Sets ERAM Enhancements Initiate Trajectory Based Operations Concept Demonstrations Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports Automated Problem Resolution Trajectory Based Ops/High Density Infrastructure – Trajectory Based Ops Time Based Metering TFM-M Enhancements Time-Based Metering Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment RNP/RNAV Expansion Improve Collaborative ATM Data Communications Reduce Weather Impact Precise Navigation Flight Intent Downlink ADS-B Aircraft Separation SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather Net-Centric Information Sharing Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance Transform Facilities