New Space The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human

“New. Space” The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight Bigelow Aerospace “Genesis-1” in orbit, July 2006

Manned Orbital Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010? ] Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] Soyuz (Russia) Shenzhou (China) Space Habitat International Space Station [to 2016? ] Deep Space Ares 1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018 -2020? ] - “Apollo on Steroids”

Manned Suborbital Virgin Galactic Space. Ship. Two (USA/UK) (USA) Rp. K Rocketplane XP (USA) (UK) Blue Origin New Shephard (USA) Prodea Explorer (Russia/USA) (S. Korea) Planetspace Canadian Arrow (Canada/USA) Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010? ] Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] Soyuz (Russia) Shenzhou (China) Armadillo Aerospace VDR Starchaser Thunderstar ARCA Stabilo (Romania) CANDSPACE Proteus Manned Orbital Space Habitat International Space Station [to 2016? ] Bigelow Aerospace Sundancer (USA) Bigelow Aerospace BA-330 (USA) Deep Space Ares 1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018 -2020? ] CSI Lunar Express (Russia/USA) Deep Space Expedition Alpha (Russia/USA) Space. X Lunar Dragon? (USA) Rocketplane Kistler K-1 OV (USA) Planet. Space Silver Dart (Canada/USA) Space. X Dragon (USA)

Old. Space Major military contractors Government “cost-plus” contracts ($500 hammers) Large project teams (~20, 000 people in United Space Alliance) Politicised funding (“porkbarrel”)

New. Space Small entrepreneurial companies (e. g. Masten Space Systems – 5 full-time employees) Fixed-price commercial contracts Rapid development cycle (“Build a lot, fly a lot”) Off-the-shelf technology

History of Space Commerce 1970's: communication satellites 1980's: earth resources satellites, space manufacturing (ISF) 1990's: navigation (GPS), satellite internet (Iridium, Globalstar, Teledesic) 2000's: space tourism? (Ansari X-Prize) 2010's: commercial space stations? (America's Space Prize)

Virgin Galactic Carrier aircraft (White Knight 2) and suborbital rocketplane (Space. Ship. Two) Designed and built by Burt Rutan, funded by Richard Branson $250 M investment 5 spacecraft 2 carrier aircraft $100 M for new spaceport at Upham, New Mexico

Virgin Galactic 140 km max altitude, ~5 min of microgravity. $200, 000 per seat ~200 customers now, est. 500 by first commercial flight WK 2 rollout Farnborough 2007. Spacecraft test flights 2008 -2009 British flight test crew Commercial service 2009

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Virgin Galactic

Rocketplane XP Rebuilt Lear. Jet 25, conversion to suborbital spaceplane Takeoff under jet power, ignites rocket at altitude Operating from Oklahoma Spaceport (former Strategic Air Command base). Pilot + 3 passengers Space tourism, nanosat launch First test flight 2008?

Rocketplane XP

Rocketplane XP

Blue Origin Funded by Jeff Bezos (Amazon. com) Own private spaceport in Cuthbertson County, TX VTVL modular design (“New Shepard”) Nov 2006: First prototype launch successful Test flights every 1 -2 weeks Manned flights to 100 km by 2010

Stabilo (Romania)

Armadillo Aerospace Founded by John Carmack (creator of Doom, Quake) 8 people working part-time, total spend ~$2. 5 M VTVL unmanned tech demos 2004: successful hop test 2004: vehicle crash Oct 2006: entered NASA Lunar Lander Challenge ($1. 3 M prizes)

Armadillo Aerospace

COTS NASA programme “Commercial Orbital Transportation Services” (also stands for “Commercial Off-The-Shelf”) Develop commercial ISS resupply (buy tickets, don't build rockets) $500 M between two companies for cargo transport by 2010, with option for crew transport Fixed-price contract, dependent on technical milestones August 2006: Award split between two companies, Space. X and Rocketplane Kistler

Space. X `Founded by Elon Musk (Paypal. com) Aims to provide launches 3 -5 x cheaper than US competition March 2006: Falcon-1 test launch failed, engine fire and shutdown Q 1 2007: Second Falcon-1 test launch Q 1 2007: Test firing Falcon-9 1 st stage Dragon manned capsule under development. First Dragon demo fight 2008, first manned flight 2010?

Space. X

Space. X Dragon Launch configuration On-orbit configuration Dragon atop Space. X Falcon-9 launch vehicle

Rocketplane-Kistler K-1: TSTO, fully reusable, recovery via parachutes & airbags Launch from Woomera, Australia Fleet of 5, launch every 2 weeks Cost: $21 M per launch $207 M under COTS programme Prototype 75% hardware complete now First launch 2009 -2010.

Bigelow Aerospace Bob Bigelow, US hotel entrepreneur $500 M of own money for inflatable manned space station modules (Trans. Hab, ex-NASA program) 1/3 -scale test modules - Genesis-I: in orbit - Genesis-II: launch Q 1 2007 Genesis-I in orbit Sundancer: man-capable module 2009 BA-330: full-scale permanently manned station 2011? Working with Lockheed-Martin on crew transport Orbital tourism, commercial research, space manufacturing

Why should we care? It's cool It's British! Cheaper space operations = less pressure on space science budgets Cheap/free and frequent flight opportunities for science payloads Building commercial space infrastructure makes doing anything in space easier, including science. The UK has a head start in this industry, but it could easily be lost due to governmental, institutional and public indifference.