Never Lost, Always Found: The business case for privacy 2 nd Annual Privacy and Security Workshop Faculty Club, University of Toronto Nov. 1, 2001 Lawrence Surtees Senior Telecom Analyst, IDC Canada
Agenda • Global wireless penetration/growth; Canadian market • Wireless Internet market & forecast • Wireless location & Mobile e-commerce markets • Privacy implications • Consumer attitudes to location technology and online privacy
IDC’s International Research • • • United States Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela • • Austria Benelux • • Czech Republic • • • Denmark • • • Finland • • • • France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Norway • • Poland Russia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey U. K. • • • • • • • Australia China Egypt Hong Kong (Asian Research Center) India Indonesia Israel Japan Korea • Malaysia New Zealand Nigeria Philippines Singapore South Africa Taiwan Thailand • •
Rising Concerns Over Personal Privacy: 1970 -1998 Q: How concerned are you about threats to your personal privacy in America today - very concerned, somewhat concerned, only a little concerned or not concerned at all? Source: Louis Harris & Associates; Privacy Journal 2000
Global Wireless v. Wireline Growth Source: IDC, March 2000
Wireless Ascendant: Canadian Subscriber Forecast, 1999 -2005 Source: IDC Canada, Oct. 2001
Canadian Wireless Revenue, 1999 -2005 Source: IDC Canada, Oct. 2001
Number of Canadians on the Net Source: IDC Canada, 2001 ICMM Version 7. 1
Canadian PCS Phones With Internet Access (%) Source: IDC Canada, May 2000
Canadian Wireless Internet Access, 2000 -2005 (Millions users) Source: IDC Canada, 2001, ICMM Version 7. 1
Wireless Internet Use Rising Browser hits/month (‘ 000); Jan-Oct 2000 Source: Bell Mobility
Non-PC Devices & Internet Access Source: IDC Canada ICMM version 7. 1, June 2001
The Internet & e. Commerce in Canada Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model, v 6. 0 Jan. 2000 Consumer ecommerce: 2004 $19 B Business-Business ecommerce 2004 $129 B
Mobile e-commerce in Canada Source: IDC Canada ICMM v. 7. 1
NGN OSS: Wireless CRM Customer Interaction Portals Administration Self. Service End User Customer Relationship Management Billing Bill Presentation Invoicing Customer Care Workforce Management Contracts, SLAs, Entitlements Sales Force Automation & Order Config e. Commerce Services Menu Customer Records Trouble Ticketing CRM ERP 3 rd party And legacy apps OSS/Service Commerce Engine Rating Accounts Receivable Hosted / Enterprise Apps Performance Management System Mgmt Load Balancing / Node mgmt Gateway OSS / Legacy Interconnect Service Fulfillment Directory Network Monitoring Application Performance Assign & Design Inventory Mgmt LDAP Directory & API INA Qo. S AAA Perform. And Reporting App & Network SLA Mgmt Service Activation Elements/ Features Apps (e. g. e-mail, www) To. IP VPNs Wireless Role and Access Definition and Management Application Management Provisioning Service Activation Bundle Definition & Management Version & License Control
WASPs: Future Wireless Carrier Location Determination Service Provider $ Financial Source: IDC $ $ Service Collector Provider $ Portal $ $ Integrator Content ASP ASP
Location Determination: – By 2003, over 50% of all cellular, PCS and SMR subscribers will have enduser equipment that allows location determination, rising to 83% by 2005. Location Determination is defined as the ability of the wireless provider to determine the position of the caller to within 50 m for 67% of calls and 150 m for 95% of calls. Source: IDC, Wireless Location-Based Services Update: Market and Analysis 2000 -2005, April 2001
Focus group findings A focus group test of user tolerance for advertising in new media based on twohour interviews with six groups of Internetsavvy, communications-intensive consumers (three college-age and three adult). (Kiersted and Thorat, IDC Report, Dec. 2000).
Privacy Issues & Location. Based Services • Protection of Privacy Rights are central to the LBS design – Real time customer control – Real time customer visibility – Application Specific Rules – Time based Privacy Rules – Subscriber Control of accuracy level MPC WAP Gateway SMSC MPC Privacy Rules Internet
Location Determination II Location Determination: – By 2005, location determination services revenue explodes to $5. 7 billion for cellular, PCS and SMR subscribers. Revenue is defined as that generated directly from the location-based services, such as driving directions, locationspecific directory assistance, restaurant reservation services, etc. , and does not include indirect revenue, such as increased airtime charges due to higher MOU. Source: IDC, Wireless Location-Based Services Update: Market and Analysis 2000 -2005, April 2001
Platform for Privacy Preferences (P 3 P) • Question: When P 3 P is operational and bundled into browsers, will preference-settings be preloaded to: - favor the collection of user data (opt-out); or -will they be set at maximum privacy protection level (opt-in)?
Wireless Advertising: – Wireless ad revenues will explode from $1. 9 million in 2000 to $7. 7 billion in 2005 – CAGR of 429%! – Contributing Factors: • Wireless Internet growth • Wireless SMS growth • Location-determination allows highly targeted ads Includes ads delivered to wireless subscribers over both wireless Internet and wireless SMS. Source: Valuable Real Estate: Advertising on the Wireless Internet, March 2001
Wireless Device Form-Factors
Say cheese on wireless - Compaq i. PAQ H 3650 Pocket PC u. Operating l System Windows-Powered Pocket PC u. Memory l 32 MB RAM u. Battery u. Processor l 206 MHz Intel Strong. ARM l u. Weight l u. Screen l l l Touchscreen Reflective front-lit TFT 240 x 320 resolution Lithium Polymer 6. 3 oz. / 170 grams (including battery) u. Dimensions l 5. 1” x 3. 2" x. 62 l 130 x 15. 9 x 83. 5 mm
The case for legislated protection • Continued business ambivalence • Superficial adherence to four pillars of privacy protection • Increased consumer trust
Factors Driving Corporate Info. Sec Investments Source: IDC Canada, April 2001; N=200 Q: Which ONE of the following factors is most important to driving your current investment in security?
Seals versus Legal? AT&T Labs Survey, 1999 Asked whether respondents would be more or less likely to provide personal information if: • the site had a privacy policy stating information would be used only to process the request; • a law prevented the site from using information for any purpose other than processing the request; or • the site had both a privacy policy and a seal of approval from a well-known organization such as the Better Business Bureau. Source: Lorrie Faith Cranor, Joseph Reagle and Mark Ackerman. Beyond Concern: Understanding Net Users' Attitudes About Online Privacy. AT&T Labs-Research. Technical Report TR 99. 4. 3. April 14, 1999. www. research. att. com/resources/trs/TRs/99/99. 4. 3/report. htm.
Frequency of Privacy Concerns Causing U. S. Web Users to Leave a Web Site Q: Over the past six months, how many times have you left a Web site primarily due to privacy reasons? N=779 Source: IDC Online Consumer Internet Privacy Survey, Oct. 2000
Warning: No single privacy solution can fit all needs.
Frequency of Privacy Concerns Causing Canadian Web Users to Avoid e-Commerce Q: Have concerns over privacy of personal information on the Internet affected your decisions to purchase online? N=3, 026 Source: IDC Canada e-Omnitel Consumer Internet Privacy Survey, Aug. 2001
Message from survey data Privacy is not only GOOD for business… but essential for e-commerce. And there are novel methods to protect consumer privacy online.
Privacy Enhancing Technologies • • • E-wallets; Single-use credit cards; Anonymizer sites and software; Cookie crunchers; Protective browsers; and Personal firewalls. . .
Secure wireless components
Payment Agent Architecture Source: IDC, 2000
Internet User Familiarity with Privacy Options Q: How familiar are you with the following consumer online privacy tools? N=779 Source: IDC Online Consumer Privacy Survey, Oct. 2000 1=not at all familiar; 5=very familiar
Want More Information? • This Presentation: Lawrence Surtees • Customer service: Stephen Symonds IDC Canada lsurtees@idccanada. com 416 -369 -0033 ext. 297 416 -369 -0033 ext. 266
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