Near Real-Time Verification At The Forecast Systems Laboratory: An Operational Perspective Michael P. Kay (CIRES/FSL/NOAA) Jennifer L. Mahoney (FSL/NOAA)
Background Aviation forecast verification project initiated in the early 1990 s in the Aviation Division of Forecast Systems Laboratory Initial RTVS was created in 1997. Version was transferred to operational environment at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). Real-time means 'as soon as possible' System has matured to support a diverse set of forecasts with an emphasis on aviation Fully-automated; runs 24/7 without human intervention
RTVS has an aviation focus but also includes other areas Supports numerous forecast types including humangenerated, numerical models, and algorithms from both operational and experimental settings
Example session of a user generating a time series of Critical Success Index (CSI) for two different products for an arbitrary date range
Components of a Verification System Data Ingest Data Pre-processing Data Storage and Archive Analysis and Visualization
RTVS Architecture Data Ingest Relational Database Scheduler Web Interface Computational Cluster 10 node/20 CPU cluster Redundant ingest, scheduling, database, and web servers Currently process more than 10 Gb per day Online storage capacity of nearly 7 Tb
Challenges Meeting the needs of numerous user groups (forecasters, managers, etc. ) Creating and implementing relevant scientific techniques Defining and meeting user requirements! (hardware and software) Is the project feasible? Understanding what information is relevant to present Displays (e. g. , maps) are highly relevant in real-time Other tools may be more useful in longer-term settings Data management Training and documentation
Knowledge of hardware and software performance is crucial
Real-time displays that combine meaningful information
Summary and Future Directions Real-time verification is a challenging exercise requiring expertise in meteorology, statistics, software and hardware design Forecast verification is only one part of a verification system Numerous lessons learned over the last 10 years are factoring into a re-engineering effort to produce the nextgeneration RTVS www-ad. fsl. noaa. gov/fvb/rtvs/
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