Naval Oceanography Excellence in Tropical Meteorology Rear Admiral

Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) Meteorology Rear Admiral Dave Titley Commander Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command Presented to 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Charleston, SC 3 March 2008 Naval Oceanography

Overview: Communications and Cooperation • The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology – • We are interdependent with our partners and stakeholders – • Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else really matters Part of the nation’s weather infrastructure The Future is bright – and very different from the past – Forecasters: Moving up the value chain • • – • How we communicate our information Ensembles Risk management Battlespace on Demand Decision Superiority Naval Oceanography – a great place to work! We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community Naval Oceanography 2

Naval Oceanography WARFIGHTING FOCUSED Anti-Submarine Warfare Naval Special Warfare KNOWLEDGE-CENTRIC Naval Oceanography • ~$600 M operating budget • 12 ships Mine Warfare • 1950 military, 1350 civilians ISR Navigation Precise Time and Astrometry Warfighting Fleet Operations Shaping NAVO Aviation Operations CUS Safety FNMOC Maritime Operations • Teamwork • Technical Excellence • Clear Communications • Manage Risk • Measure Results • Continuous Improvement USNO Naval Oceanography 3

Naval Meteorology • Numerical Wx Prediction • Tropical Cyclone Forecasts • Maritime / Polar • Fleet Operations • Aviation • Expeditionary Naval Oceanography 4

Numerical Weather Prediction Global • Regional / Relocatable • Aerosol / Dispersion • Tropical Cyclone • Coupled Wave and Ocean • Ensembles • Information Assurance • Tight R&D Naval Oceanography 500 mb Height AC • NHEM Ops Connection 5

Joint Typhoon Warning Center 26 TC’s • 56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007 24 TC’s • 35 – 40% decrease in track errors over past 10 years • 72 hour track error < 150 nm in 2007 • Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan Naval Oceanography 6

Communication “Paradox of Accuracy” • Better warnings may not equate to less damage • How to best communicate probabilistic information? The Weather Research Challenge • Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts The Communications Research Challenge • Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc. • TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs. • Destructive vs. • Hurricane Winds” “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. ” -Albert Einstein Naval Oceanography 7

Safety Operations Smart: • Sensing • Forecasting / Automation • Communications • Partnering • NWS • USAF • Other Countries Officers Chiefs 27 22 Naval Oceanography $300 B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets Junior Enlisted 179 Civilians Total 12 240

Partnerships • Navy values the partnerships and interdependence with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in meteorology – we can’t do this alone! – JTWC … A success story for over 50 years • – USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise National Weather Service forecasts are the backbone of the Navy’s installation resource protection program. • 5 Day TC forecasts • NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF) – Participation in next generation national weather forecast model with NOAA and USAF – Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast ensemble. • – ATCF, Sat Viewer International Naval Oceanography 9

The Future • Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9 – – 4 DVAR (NAVDAS – AR) – Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW 3 w/ NCEP) – WW 3 Upgrades – • Semi-Lagrangian (T 239 L 30 T 479 L 60) CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1. 4 TFLOPS 22 TFLOPS) People – – B. S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors – • Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air Stations In-house forecasting training Ensembles & Communication – Typhoon forecasts – Experiments – NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research Office (PRO) Naval Oceanography 10

People + Technology • Partnering with the Science, Technology, and Research and Development communities to: – – • Maximize operational impact Minimize time to transition into our skilled workforce Increased model skill – an opportunity to do our job differently – – • Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts and routes Automate environmental impact assessment – provides rapid situational awareness Training and education of skilled 21 st century weather forecasters – How to best use ensembles – How to best use forecast information to inform decision-makers • In combat • In risk-management • In civilian applications (e. g. , Next-Gen) Naval Oceanography 11

Summary • Navy remains committed to excellence in meteorology • Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders – Participation in next generation national forecast model (NUOPC) – Ocean forecasting – Defining the role of the 21 st century forecaster • Battlespace on Demand • Rapid transition advanced S&T discoveries into operations • We are hiring! • There is opportunity everywhere we look – in the tropical field! Naval Oceanography 12

Questions? Naval Oceanography 13