National Security vs Energy Independence in Israel MK

National Security vs. Energy Independence in Israel MK MG (Res. ) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 1

Some Immediate Observations l Israel has no oil. l Israel’s energy supply is completely dependent on import. l Israel is surrounded by Arab countries with only one open border: the Mediterranean Sea. l The Middle East is the main supplier of oil to the world. 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 2

Two Basic Strategic Problems l Can Israel survive a war? – Can Israel be independent (energy-wise)? – Can Israel accumulate enough energy reserves for emergency periods? l Can Israel stand against the “oil weapon” operated by the Arab oil producers? 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 3

Can Israel be energy independent? l Through renewable fuels: Not really, only relatively l Nuclear Energy l Possible Solution: Short wars 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 4

Are renewable energy, bio-fuels etc. not important for Israel Security? l It can decrease Israel dependence on import l It can reduce Arab global oil influence 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 5

“We have a unique military problem – we are few while our enemies are many. . . and the number -- you know, is a major military factor, usually a decisive factor. So what helped us to survive till now and David Ben-Gurion (1948) what will help us in the future? Only our qualitative advantage. ” David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 43. 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 6

Israel in the Middle East – Some Ratios l Israel vs. its direct neighbors: 1/15 l Israel vs. Arab world: 1/40 l Israel vs. Moslem World: 1/200 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 7

The True Aim of Warfare "War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will… Force is thus the means of war; to impose our will on the enemy is its object. To secure that object we must render the enemy powerless; and that, in theory, is the true aim of warfare“ (Clausewitz, On War, Book 1, Chap. 1). 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 8

Three Objectives "What is meant by disarming a country? We should at once distinguish between three things, three broad objectives, which between them cover everything: the armed forces, the country, and the enemy's will" (Book 1, Chap 2). 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 9

A Rhetorical Question Can Israel have a victory over Egypt? l Can it destroy its forces? l Can it occupy its territory? l Can it break the will of the Egyptian people? 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 10

What is a "Victory”? l 1967 – A clear and cut victory of Israel in the Six Days War. l 1969 – Egypt launches the Attrition War. l 1973 – Egypt and Syria surprise Israel in Yom Kippur War. 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 11

The Concept of “Rounds” Small countries cannot achieve final victory over bigger ones. l Hence, “victory” should be understood in a context of military “rounds” (e. g. the Six Days War, Yom Kippur, Peace for Galilee) l In each “round” the enemy must be disarmed, i. e. , put in such a condition that it can no longer carry on the fight. l The duration of a “round” < few weeks l 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 12

Interim Conclusions l Wars should be short (“rounds”) l Each round must be won decisively 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 13

Decisive Victory “We have a unique military problem – we are few while our enemies are many. . . and the number -- you know, is a major military factor, usually a decisive factor. So what David Ben-Gurion (1948) helped us to survive till now and what will help us in the future? Only our qualitative advantage. ” David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 43. 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 14

What is our “Qualitative Edge”? “Our human resources in general are no worse than any other country, with our moral and intellectual ability far exceeding our neighbors. This is our chief advantage. And for now it is virtually our only one. To exploit their role fully … they must be armed and equipped … with full exploitation of all innovative scientific and technological conquests for our defense. ” David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 13. 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 15

The Right Priorities “It does not even require mentioning that we must include scientific, technological and electronic development of innovative weapons at the top of our investment priorities. ” Yigal Alon, Integrated Tools, page 103. 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 16

Israel’s inherent advantages l Education l Combat experience l Small is beautiful l The synergetic combination of hitech and skilled people 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 17

The secret: Academic Reserves 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 18

The Basic Problem Industry ? Inventors R&D Centers Academy 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 19

Technology Transfer Challenges: Contrasting Cultures University Industry/Corporate Social responsibilities Shareholders responsibilities Basic research Applied research Create new knowledge Develop new products Pure scientific driven research Specific objectives, product focused Publications & collaborations Ownership and secrecy Sharing of material Control of material 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 20

Private Investments vs. Government Investments (in US $K), 1991 -2005 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 21

The Ultimate Key: Manpower l For small countries the only way to compensate for numeric inferiority is by qualitative superiority l Quality = Skilled people l Technology is a product of skilled people 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 22

A word of caution Industry ? Inventors R&D Centers Academy 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 23

There are three possible roads to ruin - women, gambling and technology. The most pleasant is with women, the quickest is with gambling, but the surest is with technology. Georges Pompidou 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors 24